Category Archives: Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Below are the Nasdaq 100 Watch List stocks for November 2021. Continue reading →

Below are the Nasdaq 100 Watch List stocks for April 2019.

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Below are the Nasdaq 100 Watch List stocks for October 2018. Continue reading →

Performance Review

Below is the performance of the Nasdaq 100 watch list from January 25, 2017 compared to the analyst estimates for the respective stocks.

Although we expect that the analysts will miscalculate which stocks will do the best, it is necessary to actually see how the stocks did in comparison.  We’re not seeking an exact match in the performance expectations, just that the general trend was correct. 

For example, the analysts got the expectations of Gilead (GILD) and Mylan (MYL) generally corrects.  However, the analysts projected equivalent gains that did not exceed that of the Nasdaq 100 index at +34.90%.  Likewise, the analysts projected a significant loss for Vodafone (VOD) while the stock was among the top performers on the list.

Looking at the performance from the following respective categories helps to narrow down the best strategy to apply when we don’t know which stocks to select.  Below is the performance based on the top three stocks in the respective categories:

None of the listed categories managed to beat the Nasdaq 100 index (NDX) in the last year.  However, there is still a lot to learn from the ranking of performance.  As with our Dogs of the Dow studies, the conventional wisdom keeps getting overturned with the low p/e and low p/b stocks underperforming the high p/e and high p/b stocks.  We believe that there is a perfect explanation for this as we have outlined in our recent studies posted on our site.

Nasdaq 100 Watch List January 2018

Performance Review

This is the performance from the October 1, 2016 Nasdaq 100 Watch List:

The entire watch list average a gain of +2.43% compared to the analyst estimate of +8.70%.  The watch list categories had the following performance:

The performance in the last year was horrendous for the expectations that we set on the Nasdaq watch list.  Compared to the Nasdaq 100 gain of +27% the above watch list gained a meager +2.43%.  Adding insult to injury was the section labeled “Sell the Principal” where stocks that seemed to have excessive gains were thought by us to have warranted selling the principal.

Massive gains in the five listed stocks averaged a gain of +73.74% in the last year.  That leaves little to debate in terms of the success or failure to the idea of selling the principal.

Performance Review

Looking back at the watch list from March 2016, we can see that the first five stocks managed to eke out a modest gain of +6.33%.  This subset performance was severely below the Nasdaq 100 Index increase of +20.44%, in the same period of time.

When viewed from the perspective of the analysts (in blue), we see that the estimates for the coming year (at the time) were far short of the actual performance (in red) in the stock price as represented below.

According to Yahoo!Finance, there are seven analysts that track QVC Group (QVCA) are included in their analyst estimates.  It is worth considering, for additional research, finding the analyst(s) who were best able to  call QVC Group (QVCA).  Additionally, the same analyst(s) have a low expectation of $1.02 earnings and a high of $1.71 in earnings for the coming year, putting the stock price in a range of $20.40 to $34.20.  We believe that the analysts for QVCA have a good beat on this stock, let’s see if the same performance follows in the coming year.

Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Below is the watch list for March 2017 and the earnings estimates with the price projection based on those estimates as well as a strong interest stock.

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