Experts on the topic of gold are a dime a dozen. However, few, if any, are actually experts at all. With the ability to be quoted day in and day out, there is little or no accountability when it comes to accuracy of claims. Of course the “expert” will not provide the gaping (and ongoing) lapses in their analysis and the published website touting them won’t bother to define what makes them an expert. All that seems to matter when qualifying as an expert on gold or gold stocks is that they are loud, speak often, never fail in their love of gold, make exaggerated claims, and go to the many headlining confabs arranged by the industry.
So what is a “real gold expert?” A real gold expert is someone who appreciates the good and bad of gold whiled able and willing to make the call, buy OR sell (no hold recommendations allowed). A gold expert that we have been working hard to get more information on is Alden Rice Wells. We know that Wells was bullish on gold stocks in the 1960’s in his Monetary Reports newsletter (PO Box 401, Exeter, NH, 03822) and was a contributor in the Inflation $urvival Letter (410 First Street S.E., Washington D.C., 2003) in the mid-1970’s.
What stands out about Alden Rice Wells? After being a big proponent of gold and gold stocks through the 1960’s and early 1970’s, Wells warned that gold and gold stocks were going to crash in May 1974. The following excerpt is from Richard Russell’s Dow Theory Letters dated May 31, 1974:
"Several subscribers have asked us to comment on the recent recommendations of Alden Rice Wells, one of the original gold bugs, that silver and gold holdings be liquidated in anticipation of a crash, or depression (Richard Russell. Dow Theory Letters. May 31, 1974. Letter 599. page 6.).”
This is the performance of the Barron’s Gold Mining Index leading up to and after Wells’ recommendation to sell gold.
In the same period of time that Wells made the call for a crash in precious metals, gold declined –33% and silver declined –25%. This is what we would consider an expert opinion on the topic of precious metals.
What do investors need in a precious metal expert? A bullish perspective when it is time to be bullish and a bearish perspective when it is time to be bearish. Where are the experts today?