2019 was an exceptional year to be long equities. The S&P 500 gained +30.40% which is the 6th time the market put up gain of +30% or more. This peaked our interest in subsequent market returns after an exceptional year. We compiled and analyzed the data for our readers.
Below is the market return after the S&P 500 gained +30% or more. The average return in the subsequent year was +20% with 100% success rate.
| Index | Year | % Change | Subsequent Year % Change |
| S&P 500 | 1954 | 44% | 24% |
| S&P 500 | 1958 | 37% | 8% |
| S&P 500 | 1975 | 31% | 19% |
| S&P 500 | 1995 | 34% | 20% |
| S&P 500 | 1997 | 31% | 27% |
| S&P 500 | 2019 | 30% | ? |
Reducing the market return for the S&P 500 to +25%, the success rate dropped to 83.30% and the only 2 subsequent down years were 1981 and 1990. The average return under this assumption is +12%.
| Index | Year | % Change | Subsequent Year % Change |
| S&P 500 | 1954 | 44.2% | 23.8% |
| S&P 500 | 1958 | 36.9% | 8.0% |
| S&P 500 | 1975 | 31.4% | 19.1% |
| S&P 500 | 1980 | 25.8% | -9.7% |
| S&P 500 | 1985 | 26.4% | 14.6% |
| S&P 500 | 1989 | 27.3% | -6.6% |
| S&P 500 | 1991 | 26.3% | 4.5% |
| S&P 500 | 1995 | 34.1% | 20.3% |
| S&P 500 | 1997 | 31.0% | 26.7% |
| S&P 500 | 1998 | 26.7% | 19.5% |
| S&P 500 | 2003 | 26.4% | 9.0% |
| S&P 500 | 2013 | 29.6% | 11.5% |
| S&P 500 | 2019 | 30.4% | ? |
Taking this return down to +20% didn’t change the success rate of having a positive return in the subsequent year. The success rate remain at 83.30% but the average return dropped slightly to +11%.
| Index | Year | % Change | Subsequent Year % Change |
| S&P 500 | 1950 | 22.6% | 14.4% |
| S&P 500 | 1954 | 44.2% | 23.8% |
| S&P 500 | 1955 | 23.8% | 3.3% |
| S&P 500 | 1958 | 36.9% | 8.0% |
| S&P 500 | 1961 | 24.3% | -11.8% |
| S&P 500 | 1967 | 20.1% | 7.7% |
| S&P 500 | 1975 | 31.4% | 19.1% |
| S&P 500 | 1980 | 25.8% | -9.7% |
| S&P 500 | 1985 | 26.4% | 14.6% |
| S&P 500 | 1989 | 27.3% | -6.6% |
| S&P 500 | 1991 | 26.3% | 4.5% |
| S&P 500 | 1995 | 34.1% | 20.3% |
| S&P 500 | 1996 | 20.3% | 31.0% |
| S&P 500 | 1997 | 31.0% | 26.7% |
| S&P 500 | 1998 | 26.7% | 19.5% |
| S&P 500 | 2003 | 26.4% | 9.0% |
| S&P 500 | 2009 | 23.5% | 12.6% |
| S&P 500 | 2013 | 29.6% | 11.5% |
| S&P 500 | 2019 | 30.4% | ? |
The last table shows subsequent return when the market rises +15% or more. Under this circumstances, the market rose 70.80% of the time with an average return of +6.90%.
| Index | Year | % Change | Subsequent Year % Change |
| S&P 500 | 1950 | 22.6% | 14.4% |
| S&P 500 | 1954 | 44.2% | 23.8% |
| S&P 500 | 1955 | 23.8% | 3.3% |
| S&P 500 | 1958 | 36.9% | 8.0% |
| S&P 500 | 1961 | 24.3% | -11.8% |
| S&P 500 | 1963 | 18.9% | 13.0% |
| S&P 500 | 1967 | 20.1% | 7.7% |
| S&P 500 | 1972 | 15.6% | -17.4% |
| S&P 500 | 1975 | 31.4% | 19.1% |
| S&P 500 | 1976 | 19.1% | -11.5% |
| S&P 500 | 1980 | 25.8% | -9.7% |
| S&P 500 | 1983 | 17.3% | 1.4% |
| S&P 500 | 1985 | 26.4% | 14.6% |
| S&P 500 | 1989 | 27.3% | -6.6% |
| S&P 500 | 1991 | 26.3% | 4.5% |
| S&P 500 | 1995 | 34.1% | 20.3% |
| S&P 500 | 1996 | 20.3% | 31.0% |
| S&P 500 | 1997 | 31.0% | 26.7% |
| S&P 500 | 1998 | 26.7% | 19.5% |
| S&P 500 | 1999 | 19.5% | -10.1% |
| S&P 500 | 2003 | 26.4% | 9.0% |
| S&P 500 | 2009 | 23.5% | 12.6% |
| S&P 500 | 2013 | 29.6% | 11.5% |
| S&P 500 | 2017 | 18.7% | -6.6% |
| S&P 500 | 2019 | 30.4% | ? |
Updated 1/28/2024 - Market Return After Exceptional Year – 2023