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Category Archives: S&P 500
Market Forecasting Made Simple
Posted in DJIA in Review, Dow Industrials, Richard Russell Review, S&P 500
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S&P 500 Price Momentum
Below is the chart of S&P 500 Price Momentum. Continue reading
Market Return After Exceptional Year – 2023
It’s no secret that 2023 was an exceptional year to be long the market. S&P 500 gained 23.8% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 13.7%. In this review, we review the historical return of the subsequent year after a strong market uptrend. This frame work provide an objective view for market performance from historical pattern. For more on this work, review or original post here. Continue reading
S&P 500 Downside Target Update
This posting will update the downside targets for the S&P 500 Index using Dow Theory.
Dow’s Theory: 2020-2023
Applying Dow Theory from the March 23, 2020 to March 17, 2023 period, the downside targets for the S&P 500 Index are: Continue reading
Short-Term S&P 500 Price Momentum $SPY (1/25/2023)
Below is a chart of the S&P 500 as of 1/25/2023, reflecting Price Momentum data. Continue reading
Market Historical Returns and Subsequent Year
Major indexes ended the year down -10% to -30% for the year. Tables below shows the historical market return and what occurred in the subsequent year. Hopefully this provides some framework of what to expect in 2023. Continue reading
YTD S&P 500 Price Momentum $SPY
Below is a chart of the S&P 500 for 2022, reflecting Price Momentum data.
Dow and S&P 500 Comparable Levels $SPX
This is an update to a comparison we did showing how alike the the two indexes, Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500, are: Continue reading
S&P 500 Downside Targets
This posting will cover the downside targets for the S&P 500 Index using Dow Theory.
Dow’s Theory: 2020-2022
Applying Dow Theory from the March 23, 2020 to April 29, 2022 period, the downside targets for the S&P 500 Index are: Continue reading
S&P 500 Downside Targets Using Dow Theory and Gould’s SRL
This posting will cover the downside targets for the S&P 500 Index using Dow Theory and Edson Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines [SRL].
Dow’s Theory: 2020-2021
Applying Dow Theory from the March 23, 2020 to September 2, 2021 period, the downside targets for the S&P 500 Index are: Continue reading
Market Rewind: S&P 3,384/Dow 3,384
On September 14, 2020, the S&P 500 Index closed at 3,383.54. To celebrate, we are going to review what Richard Russell’s Dow Theory Letters had to say about the market when the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 3,384.32 on August 4, 1992.
Russell said:
"...the nation's in a 'contained depression'."
"Interest rates have collapsed, consumers are gloomy, and nobody's taking out loans. That's exactly what happened during the Great Depression--with one big difference. Then the stock markets were crashing but today the markets are bullish. So how are the two periods different? As I interpret it, today's stock market is saying that somewhere ahead business is going to pick up and people will start buying again---unlike during the 1930s."
"for the first time since the Great Depression almost all the nations in the northern hemisphere are in various stages of a recession."
"...the widely publicized figure is that 40% of the 5,000 listed stocks have been downed by 30% or more. On that basis, some analysts are referring to 1992 as the 'year of the hidden bear market'..."
That was page one of six from the August 5, 1992 issue of Dow Theory Letters. Fascinating? History doesn’t need to repeat. However, good analysis starts with precedents first, as outlined by Charles H. Dow, and diverges afterward, not the other way around.
What was being said by other analysts is not too different from what we’re hearing today. We all know what has happened to the Dow since August 4, 1992.
S&P 500 Additions and Deletions 2003 to 2016
Below are the S&P 500 Additions and Deletions from 2003 to 2016. Continue reading