Category Archives: EBAY

Nasdaq 100 Watch List: May 8, 2015

Performance Review

Below is the performance of the Nasdaq 100 watch list from May 9, 2014:

Symbol Name 2014 2015 % change
DISCA Discovery Comm. 37.33 31.33 -16.07%
BBBY Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. 61.31 71.44 16.52%
ISRG Intuitive Surgical, Inc. 353.06 494.32 40.01%
NTAP NetApp, Inc. 34.19 35.65 4.27%
EBAY eBay Inc. 50.54 58.82 16.38%
ALTR Altera Corp. 32.38 44.46 37.31%
WFM Whole Foods Market, Inc. 39.32 42.58 8.29%
SIRI Sirius XM Holdings Inc. 3.16 3.87 22.47%
VRSK Verisk Analytics, Inc. 60.53 73.66 21.69%
COST Costco Wholesale 115.39 145.88 26.42%
LMCA Liberty Media Corp. 34.18 37.93 10.97%
SRCL Stericycle, Inc. 113.90 134.01 17.66%
CERN Cerner Corporation 50.19 68.02 35.53%
CA CA Technologies 29.41 31.60 7.45%

The average gain of the entire list was +17.78% while the top five stocks (DISCA, BBBY, ISRG, NTAP, EBAY) gained an average of +12.22%.  This compares with the gain for the Nasdaq 100 index of +23.41% in the same 1-year time period.

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As has frequently been the case, analyst expectations were too optimistic for stocks on the far right (DISCA, CA, CERN, SIRI, NTAP) where the average gains of +10.73%.  Likewise, the view was too pessimistic for stocks on the far left (LMCA, ISRG, WFM, COST, BBBY) which averaged +20.44% in the above chart.

The absolute change in Liberty Media (LMCA) and Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) was the most extreme.  Liberty Media saw its p/e ratio expand from 20 to 72 while ISRG’s p/e ratio increased from 26 to 39.  The increase in the p/e ratio should be expected with the increase in price.  However, value oriented investors would have overlooked these stocks simply because of the high p/e ratios and the expectation of lower earnings by analysts in 2014.

Watch List: May 8, 2015

Below are the Nasdaq 100 stocks of interest:

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Nasdaq 100 Watch List: January 9, 2015

Performance Review

Below is the performance of the seven stocks from the January 10, 2014 Nasdaq 100 watch list compared to the performance of the Nasdaq 100 Index in the last year.

Symbol Name 2014 2015 % change
ALTR Altera Corp. 31.47 36.96 17.45%
SHLD Sears Holdings 36.71 34.3 -6.56%
GOLD Randgold Resources 61.57 74.91 21.67%
MXIM Maxim Integrated Products 28.15 32.99 17.19%
CHRW CH Robinson Worldwide 57.7 72.06 24.89%
EBAY eBay Inc. 52.16 55.63 6.65%
FAST Fastenal Company 47.7 45.99 -3.58%
  Average change 11.10%
         
  Nasdaq 100     18.18%

As a group, the stocks on our list underperformed the Nasdaq 100 by a wide margin. The first five stocks on our list averaged a gain of +14.92%.  Two stocks that we took positions in at the time were Altera (ALTR) and Randgold (GOLD).

Analyst Review

The chart below is what the analysts suggested the stocks would do…

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…This is the graphical representation of what actually happened.

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The observation of the data should be clear, the analysts expected declines for the coming year and the opposite occurred.  The projections were that Randgold (GOLD) would decline by nearly –50% and the stock increased by +21.67%.  From our perspective, the analysts provide a reasonable sound board for what to anticipate, as has been demonstrated with our Canadian and U.S. Watch Lists.

Nasdaq 100 Watch List: January 9, 2015

Below are the nine Nasdaq 100 companies that are on our radar.

Nasdaq 100 Watch List: December 26, 2014

Performance Review

The December 6, 2013 watch list contained the following companies and resulted in the accompanying 1-year results:

Symbol 2013 2014 % change
CTRX 44.99 51.93 15.43%
ALTR 32.12 38.27 19.15%
ISRG 377.38 531.24 40.77%
MXIM 28.46 31.65 11.21%
CHRW 57.89 76.75 32.58%
EBAY 52.01 57.04 9.67%
EQIX 165.48 232.76 40.66%
GOLD 65.44 66.26 1.25%

The companies on our watch list from last year gained an average of +21.34% as compared to the Nasdaq 100 which gained +23.11%.  Our analyst estimate section of the watch list from last year shows what the stock on our list were expected to do over the following 12 months.

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All of the stocks were expected to decline in value, overall.  However, what is most striking about the one year performance is that while companies on the far left were expected to do the worst those on the far right were expected to the best (sort of).  Below is the actual one year performance:

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A side by side comparison will demonstrate that (again) the trend of performance favors those stocks that have been pinned with the worst expectations.

Nasdaq 100 Watch List: December 26, 2014

The following stocks are on our radar and should be on yours: