Performance Review
Below is the performance of the eight stocks from the January 11, 2013 Nasdaq 100 watch list (found here) compared to the performance of the Nasdaq 100 Index.
|
Symbol
|
Name | 2013 | 2014 | % change |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corp | 26.83 | 36.04 | 34.33% |
| DLTR | Dollar Tree, Inc. | 38.12 | 55.89 | 46.62% |
| BBBY | Bed Bath & Beyond | 56.27 | 69.94 | 24.29% |
| TEVA | Teva Pharmaceutical | 38.06 | 41.87 | 10.01% |
| VOD | Vodafone Group | 26.59 | 38.69 | 45.51% |
| PAYX | Paychex, Inc. | 31.78 | 44.37 | 39.62% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 12.21 | 15.73 | 28.83% |
| CA | CA Technologies | 23.34 | 34.02 | 45.76% |
| 34.37% | ||||
| ^NDX | NASDAQ-100 | 2,748.26 | 3565.08 | 29.72% |
On average, the watch list from last year gained +34.37%. This is contrasted with the Nasdaq 100 gaining an average of +29.37%. Of the top five stocks on our list, only Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA) did not exceed the performance of the Nasdaq 100 throughout the year. Additionally, Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY) outpaced the Nasdaq 100 until recently. Dollar Tree (DLTR) registered the best performance for the entire list even though the stock is down –7.35% from the November peak.
January 10, 2014 Nasdaq 100 Watch List
Below are the six Nasdaq 100 companies that are on our radar with the analyst estimates of downside risk for the coming year.
| Symbol | Name | Price | P/E | EPS | Yield | P/B | % from low |
| ALTR | Altera Corp. | 31.47 | 22.02 | 1.43 | 1.9 | 2.82 | 2.78% |
| SHLD | Sears Holdings | 36.71 | - | -14.11 | - | 2.41 | 3.41% |
| GOLD | Randgold Resources | 61.57 | 18.02 | 3.42 | 0.8 | 1.96 | 4.02% |
| MXIM | Maxim Integrated Products | 28.15 | 19.43 | 1.45 | 3.7 | 3.35 | 6.27% |
| CHRW | CH Robinson Worldwide | 57.7 | 15.88 | 3.63 | 2.4 | 8.72 | 7.37% |
| EBAY | eBay Inc. | 52.16 | 24.84 | 2.1 | - | 2.96 | 8.53% |
| FAST | Fastenal Company | 47.7 | 31.59 | 1.51 | 2.1 | 7.9 | 9.03% |
Analyst Estimates
Below is a snapshot of the analysts low estimated earnings assuming a price-to-earnings ratio of 15 for 2014 and the percentage change in price that is implied based on these low earnings estimates.
Watch List Summary
Recently we have taken positions in Randgold Resources (GOLD) and Altera (ALTR). Altera is expected to be a short-term holding while Randgold is expected to be a medium-term holding. Of additional interest to us is Maxim Integrated (MXIM). According to Dow Theory, Maxim has the following downside targets:
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$26.04
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$22.22 (fair value)
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$18.40
According to Value Line Investment Survey, Maxim has a fair value of $30 per share based on 2014 cash flow estimates which is 6.16% above the current price. Maxim has a marginal amount of long-term debt and shares outstanding have increased only 15% since 1997.
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