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Category Archives: COST
Nasdaq 100 Watch List: Costco Review
Posted in COST, Dow Theory, Edson Gould, Nasdaq 100 Watch List, PMI, Price Momentum, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL, upside target
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Costco Wholesale 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for Costco Wholesale Corp (COST) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Costco: Cyclical Trends
Below is a chart of Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) from 1986 to 2019.
In the charts that follow, we break down the percentage change in each cyclical rise and decline of Costco. These cyclical changes put into perspective the current rise and help to gauge what to expect when the next cyclical decline arrives while suggesting there might be more room to the upside. Continue reading
Posted in COST, Cyclical Trends
Costco Wholesale 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for Costco Wholesale Corp (COST) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Nasdaq 100 Watch List: May 8, 2015
Performance Review
Below is the performance of the Nasdaq 100 watch list from May 9, 2014:
| Symbol | Name | 2014 | 2015 | % change |
| DISCA | Discovery Comm. | 37.33 | 31.33 | -16.07% |
| BBBY | Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. | 61.31 | 71.44 | 16.52% |
| ISRG | Intuitive Surgical, Inc. | 353.06 | 494.32 | 40.01% |
| NTAP | NetApp, Inc. | 34.19 | 35.65 | 4.27% |
| EBAY | eBay Inc. | 50.54 | 58.82 | 16.38% |
| ALTR | Altera Corp. | 32.38 | 44.46 | 37.31% |
| WFM | Whole Foods Market, Inc. | 39.32 | 42.58 | 8.29% |
| SIRI | Sirius XM Holdings Inc. | 3.16 | 3.87 | 22.47% |
| VRSK | Verisk Analytics, Inc. | 60.53 | 73.66 | 21.69% |
| COST | Costco Wholesale | 115.39 | 145.88 | 26.42% |
| LMCA | Liberty Media Corp. | 34.18 | 37.93 | 10.97% |
| SRCL | Stericycle, Inc. | 113.90 | 134.01 | 17.66% |
| CERN | Cerner Corporation | 50.19 | 68.02 | 35.53% |
| CA | CA Technologies | 29.41 | 31.60 | 7.45% |
The average gain of the entire list was +17.78% while the top five stocks (DISCA, BBBY, ISRG, NTAP, EBAY) gained an average of +12.22%. This compares with the gain for the Nasdaq 100 index of +23.41% in the same 1-year time period.
As has frequently been the case, analyst expectations were too optimistic for stocks on the far right (DISCA, CA, CERN, SIRI, NTAP) where the average gains of +10.73%. Likewise, the view was too pessimistic for stocks on the far left (LMCA, ISRG, WFM, COST, BBBY) which averaged +20.44% in the above chart.
The absolute change in Liberty Media (LMCA) and Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) was the most extreme. Liberty Media saw its p/e ratio expand from 20 to 72 while ISRG’s p/e ratio increased from 26 to 39. The increase in the p/e ratio should be expected with the increase in price. However, value oriented investors would have overlooked these stocks simply because of the high p/e ratios and the expectation of lower earnings by analysts in 2014.
Watch List: May 8, 2015
Below are the Nasdaq 100 stocks of interest:
Nasdaq 100 Watch List: April 24, 2015
Performance Review
Below is the performance of our April 25, 2014 watch list.
| Symbol | Name | 2014 | 2015 | % chg |
| BBBY | Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. | 62.48 | 72.53 | 16.09% |
| CTRX | Catamaran Corporation | 38.95 | 59.56 | 52.91% |
| SIRI | Sirius XM Holdings Inc. | 3.12 | 3.96 | 26.92% |
| NTAP | NetApp, Inc. | 35.00 | 36.12 | 3.20% |
| ISRG | Intuitive Surgical, Inc. | 366.37 | 505.92 | 38.09% |
| DISCA | Discovery Comm | 39.14 | 32.71 | -16.43% |
| VRSK | Verisk Analytics, Inc. | 57.81 | 72.68 | 25.72% |
| COST | Costco Wholesale | 115.01 | 148.12 | 28.79% |
| ALTR | Altera Corp. | 33.09 | 40.89 | 23.57% |
| SRCL | Stericycle, Inc. | 113.96 | 136.94 | 20.16% |
| CERN | Cerner Corporation | 49.51 | 73.32 | 48.09% |
| ROST | Ross Stores Inc. | 67.77 | 104.38 | 54.02% |
| MAT | Mattel, Inc. | 37.99 | 30.20 | -20.51% |
| DLTR | Dollar Tree, Inc. | 51.36 | 81.14 | 57.98% |
The average return for the entire list was +25.62% compared to the Nasdaq 100 index gaining +28.41% in the same period of time. The top five stocks on our list (BBBY, CTRX, SIRI, NTAP, ISRG) gained +27.44% in the last year (excluding dividends).
As is common with our watch lists, a stock is being acquired at what we believe is a premium. CTRX is being acquired by UnitedHealth (UNH), a Dow Jones Industrial Average component. At the time of our watch list last year, CTRX was within 3% of the low. Additionally, the announcement of the purchase by UNH followed the pattern of many companies buying the intended target after a gain over of +24% within the year and +177% within the last 5 years.
Nasdaq 100 Watch List: April 24, 2015
Below are the 9 Nasdaq 100 stocks that we think are worth your consideration: