Below is a follow-up to our February 15, 2019 posting on Texas Pacific Land (TPL) from 1941 to 1967.
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Texas Pacific Land: 1958-1974
Posted in Texas Pacific Land, TPL
Equity Residential (EQR) Q1 2020
Industry representatives say that steadiness of FFO is more reflective of a REIT’s health. For the purposes of determining the future direction of the stock price, we prefer the wide variability of the net income figure. (data source)
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Equity Residential (EQR) Q2 2020
Industry representatives say that steadiness of FFO is more reflective of a REIT’s health. For the purposes of determining the future direction of the stock price, we prefer the wide variability of the net income figure. (data source)
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Maruti Suzuki India 10-Year Targets
Below are the price targets for Maruti Suzuki India Limited over the next 10 years. Continue reading
Posted in 10-year Targets, Altimeter, Maruti
Nasdaq 100 Watch List: September 2020
Below are the Nasdaq 100 Watch List stocks for September 2020.
YoY Probability Data: ITC Limited
Below is a chart of ITC Limited (ITC.BO) from 1992 to 2020 reflecting the year-over-year (YoY) percentage change. This assessment reviews the probability of performance in the coming year(s).
U.S. Dividend Watch List: August 28, 2020
We begin by reviewing the performance of last year’s list. The table below highlight various fundamental strategies and their performance using the top 5 companies.
Focusing on the worse performing group, high yield, we see that 5 highest yielding companies lost nearly half of their value. The largest drop of 78% was Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP). At the time of write up, Alliance was trading at $15.47 with dividend yield 14%, figure that appears too good to be true. The stock is now trading around $3.50.
Invesco (IVZ) was trading at $24.10 in 2018 and $15.70 in 2019. Dividend yield in 2019 was at 7.9%, however, that yield didn’t last as Invesco cut its dividend by half. Now the stock is around $10.75 and dipped as low as $6.38 in March of this year. The observation (and perhaps lesson) is to not chase the highest yield as that could be very costly to your portfolio.
On the opposite end of this strategy are low yielding stocks which gained 16.6% for the year. Leading the way for this strategy was Rollins (ROL) with yield of 1.3% at the time of publication. This yield isn’t anything to get excited about but a gain of 68% in one year certainly is.
Second on the performance list is Quaker Chemical (KWR) with yield of 0.9% last year. The stock gained 23% in one year.
If this appears to be counter intuitive to you, then it should. As value investors, we're taught to focus on low P/E, low P/B, or high yield. Our data indicate the opposite might be worth considering.
U.S. Dividend Watch List: August 28, 2020
The market, S&P 500, broke out to all-time high, leaving us a little excitement. There are a handful of companies on our dividend watch list this week. Continue reading
Buffett Buys Japanese Brokerages; Rate Thesis Intact
It was announced that Warren Buffett has accumulated shares of Japanese brokerages.
As we’ve long stated, the secular trend in rates is up:
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“A single rate increase by the Federal Reserve in no way makes for a trend. However, markets often lead the way and what initially seems “bizarre” is only a natural change in regime, a change that we haven’t seen since the early 1940’s (December 16, 2015.).”
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“We’ve only included the point in the interest rate cycle that corresponds to the phase that we are entering, coming from an all-time low to an eventual all-time high (November 15, 2015.).”
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“Investors anticipating a general rise in interest rates should feel some comfort in knowing that most manager(s) in the utility sector are ready for what is to come. Rising interest rates are not an automatic death sentence for utility stock prices or earnings. In fact, the early stages of rising interest rates may see utility stocks match or exceed the returns of non-interest rate sensitive stocks, on a total return basis. Only when the outlook is cloudy will it become difficult to offer projections that are in line with prior expectations (September 4, 2014.).”
We’ve also said that Japan outperforms under such conditions.
With this is mind, maybe this is what Buffett & Co. are seeing for the future of the secular trend and beyond.
Posted in inflation, interest rates, Warren Buffett
Hindustan Unilever 10-Year Targets
Below are the price targets for Hindustan Unilever Limited (HINDUNILVR.BO) over the next 10 years. Continue reading
Posted in 10-year Targets, Altimeter, Hindustan Unilever, India
ITC Limited 10-Year Targets
Below are the price targets for ITC Limited (ITC.BO) over the next 10 years. Continue reading
Posted in 10-year Targets, Altimeter, India, ITC.BO
Reliance Industries Limited 10-Year Targets
Below are the price targets for Reliance Industries Limited (RELIANCE.BO) over the next 10 years. Continue reading
Posted in 10-year Targets, Altimeter, Reliance Industries
S&P 500 Additions and Deletions 2003 to 2016
Below are the S&P 500 Additions and Deletions from 2003 to 2016. Continue reading
Implications of the Dow Doubling Rate
On August 21, 2020, we outlined the Dow Doubling Rate from 1900-2020. The data highlights a fundamental issue about how the doubling rate works. Continue reading
Stock Buybacks: 1970-1973
Below is a list of stock buybacks in Forbes in the April 15, 1973 issue. Worth noting is the quantity of shares being bought relative to shares outstanding.
Below we have sorted the same list above with the percentage of shares outstanding that were purchased from largest to smallest.
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Posted in Uncategorized
2020 YTD Investment Returns
Below is a chart of investment returns for various instruments as published by ZeroHedge.com. This list differs in that it includes the change in Bitcoin and our own Dogs of the Toronto Stock Exchange 60 (TSX 60).
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Posted in Bitcoin, Dogs of the TSX