Bear Market Duration

In terms of duration:

  • “The majority of bear markets have lasted from ⅓ to ½ as long as the preceding bull market (Russell, Richard. Dow Theory Letters. February 6, 1970. page 3).”
  • “…most bear markets last around one-third as long as the preceding bull market (Russell, Richard. Dow Theory Letters. August 22, 1990. page 2)."

A bear market usually lasts ¼ to ⅓ of the preceding bull market.  It’s just a rule of thumb but it will be clear why this is needed.  Let’s look at the data, based on Charles H. Dow’s requirements, and arrive at potential durations for the current bear market.

The bull market of 2002 to 2007 had a bear market that was 28% (in time) of the trough to peak.

If this bull market began in 2009 and ended on February 2020 and matched the length of the 2002-2007 bear market then the presumed equivalent would bring the end of the bear market out to July 2022 (approximately).

However, let's assume that this bear market is going to last 14% of the 2009-2020 period (half of the 28%), then that would bring us out to April 2021 (approximately).

Being as conservative on the bear market scenario as possible, if this bear market lasts 7% of the 2009-2020 period, then that would bring us out to September 2020 (approximately).

On April 3, 2019, we said that the 2014-2016 period might have been a recession (as outlined in a major publication).  If we took 25% of the period from the February 2016 low to the February 23, 2020 peak as a separate bull market then the current bear market would end in December 2020.

This is going to be a long year even under the best case scenario with a bear market that ends approximately September 2020.  When we say it ends in September 2020, we mean that the price of major indexes decline below the lowest levels already reached on March 23, 2020.

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