On January 15, 2016, we said the following in our conclusion to our Dow Theory assessment:
“What are we looking for from Dow Theory now? We’re hoping that the Dow Jones Industrial Average can decline below the August 2015 low to confirm what the other indexes have already done. Additionally, we’re looking for the INDPRO to continue its trend lower to confirm that we are in a recession and a bear market. We think that if we are in a recession, the NBER will label either the December 2014 or August 2015 peaks as the beginning of a recession in approximately six to nine months from now.”
On September 30, 2018, in a New York Times article titled “The Most Important Least-Noticed Economic Event of the Decade” said the following:
“Sometimes the most important economic events announce themselves with huge front-page headlines, stock market collapses and frantic intervention by government officials.
“Other times, a hard-to-explain confluence of forces has enormous economic implications, yet comes and goes without most people even being aware of it.
“In 2015 and 2016, the United States experienced the second type of event (Irwin, Neil. "The Invisible Recession of 2016." New York Times Sep 30 2018, Late Edition (East Coast) ed. ProQuest. 3 Apr. 2019 .).”
As time passed, and after not getting a recession call from the National Bureau of Economic Research, we rationalized away, or pushed back the expected date of a recession call. It was not until reading this article from the New York Times were we able to realize that our initial take was accurate and timely.