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- Japan
- Market Indicator
- Price Momentum Indicators
- Richard Russell
- Silver
- Speed Resistance Lines
- U.S. Dividend Watch List
NLO in Review: Week 23
The following is the breakdown of the Dogs of the NLO based on our January 3, 2020 watch list, compared to other fundamental ratios. The purpose of this work is to confirm or deny the claims proposed of the Dogs of the Dow theory as outlined by Michael O’Higgins in his book Beating the Dow. Continue reading
DJIA in Review: Week 23
Below is the year-to-date (YTD) performance of various major indexes and from December 31, 2019 to June 5, 2020.
The following is the breakdown of the Dogs of the Dow (found here) in week 23, compared to other fundamental ratios. Continue reading
TSX 60 in Review: Week 23
The following is the breakdown of the Dogs of the TSX (here) in week 23, compared to other fundamental ratios. Continue reading
Coppock Curve – Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A)
The recent market rally has pushed the market (S&P 500) near break even for the year. However, shares of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A) remain -11% below the price at the start of the year. This drop in value could potentially be a buying opportunity and today we apply the market timing strategy of the Coppock Curve to Berkshire shares.
It’s a rare occurrence when the Coppock Curve for Berkshire reach negative territory. For 40 years, there are only 8 times (once every 5 years) we get a buy signal. We haven’t receive a proper buy-signal yet but let’s review what it did in the past.
The table below shows a summary statistic of all 7 signals from the past. Continue reading
Northwest Natural Gas 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for Northwest Natural Gas (NWN) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
RLI Corp. 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for RLI Corp. (RLI) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
The Gist: REIT Data Review
On August 23, 2016, the folks at Hoya Capital Real Estate provided data on the real estate investment trust (REIT) sector that we believe is bearing fruit.
In the table below, the apartment sector of REIT’s is covered. The data columns include AFFO/G, current AFFOx, and forward AFFOx ratios.
We took the current AFFOx column and looked at the performance of the REIT that had the highest and lowest ratios and ran a simple comparison of the REIT charts to determine the performance from August 23, 2016 to May 25, 2020. Our goal is to see if, on a spectrum of highest to lowest AFFO ratios, which had performed better.
In this case, it was Apartment Investment and Management Co. (AIX) with the highest current AFFO ratio and Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc. (MAA) with the lowest AFFO ratio. Below is the performance of the two REITs from August 23, 2016 to May 25, 2020.
This is a single grab of data between only the highest and lowest current AFFO ratios within a narrowly defined subset of the REIT industry. However, the results, especially after the recent crash in the REIT market, are fascinating.
We think that the continued emphasis on the hard data by Hoya Capital will prove instrumental in understanding the complexities of the REIT sector. Furthermore, as the data grows with the passage of time, we expect that, in the realm of REIT investing, Hoya Capital is on the right path and we recommend reviewing their work for anyone serious about buying REITs.
Posted in AFFO, Hoya Capital, REIT
Digital Realty 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for Digital Realty Trust (DLR) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
American Tower 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for American Tower Corp (AMT) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Posted in 10-year Targets, Altimeter, AMT
On This Date: Roy Wenzlick
On this date in 1942, Roy Wenzlick, in his publication titled Real Estate Analyst, said the following:
"Leaving aside the equitable or inequitable nature of the freezing data in the various cities, what will be the over-all effect of rent control on values and on sales during the period of the emergency and the period that follows?
"According to Cyril De Mara, Rentals Administrator in Canada, rent control in Canada has brought about an increase in sales with increasing prices of single-family residences with increasing prices. Many persons not being able to rent the type of units they desired have purchased instead - giving the former tenants notice to vacate. In fact, this has continued to the-point that labor circles have complained that tenants are being forced out to make room for buyers. According to Mr. De Mara apartment sales have remained on the game level as a year ago, although sales prices of apartments have not increased. Speculative buyers have been replaced by persons desiring to have a fixed income."
Roy Wenzlick. Real Estate Analyst. "The Effects of Rent Control". May 27, 1942. page 137.
Posted in 1942, On This Day, Real Estate Analyst, Wenzlick
Dow Altimeter Review: May 2020
On April 3, 2018, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 24,033.36, we said the following:
“The downside risk is the most important element to watch for. In this regard we’re focused on the 18,575 level as the downside target. However, the 18,575 level can’t be achieved without first going through the 21,530 level. This, 21,530, happens to be the 50% Principle for the Altimeter. Therefore, the chart below is the outline of 21,530 as our next expected downside target.”
On March 23, 2020, the Dow Jones Industrial Average achieved a low of 18,213.65 on an intraday basis. The 18,213.65 level was within our target of 18,575 for downside risk.
Our updated analysis on the Dow Jones Industrial Average found here: Dow 10-Year Targets
Posted in Dow Altimeter
The Dow’s 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Posted in 10-year Targets, Altimeter, artificial advance, artificial depression, DJIA
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DJIA in Review: Week 21
Below is the year-to-date (YTD) performance of various major indexes and from December 31, 2019 to May 22, 2020.
The following is the breakdown of the Dogs of the Dow (found here) in week 21, compared to other fundamental ratios. Continue reading
Chart of the Day: Southern California Edison
Below is the annual 52-week low for Southern California Edison (SCE) from 1958 to 1967. We’ve also included the 3-month Treasury Bill as a comparison to show how utility stocks perform against the backdrop of rising interest rates.
In this example, the 3-month Treasury Bill increased from 1.77% to 4.31%. Meanwhile, Southern California Edison (SCE) had a 52-week low range from $15.87 to $31.75.
Posted in 1958-1968, Chart of the Day, interest rates, SCE