Below is a chart of Amazon.com (AMZN) from 1997 to 2019.
In the charts that follow, we break down the percentage change in each cyclical rise and decline of Amazon.com. These cyclical changes put into perspective the current rise and help to gauge what to expect when the next cyclical decline arrives. Continue reading
Below are the valuation targets for SNC-Lavalin Group (SNC.TO) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Posted in 10-year Targets, Altimeter, SNC
Below is the performance of the top 5 stocks by fundamental ratios that we follow from our watch list dated December 14, 2018:
All of the “high” categories exceeded the performance of the “low” categories except in the case of low/high yield, a pattern that has been consistent throughout our review of the data (1996-2019).
In the last year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained a total return of approximately +20.17%.
Below are the top five stocks by fundamental ratios for the U.S. Dividend Watch List dated December 14, 2018: Continue reading
Previous Year Performance Review
In our ongoing review of the NLO Dividend Watch List, we have taken the top five stocks on our list from December 14, 2018 and have checked the performance one year later. The top five companies on that list can be seen in the table below.
| Symbol | Name | 2018 Price | 2019 Price | % change |
| ONB | Old National BanCorp. | 16.29 | 18.25 | 12.0% |
| QNTO | Quaint Oak Bancorp, Inc. | 11.85 | 14.25 | 20.3% |
| FMBI | First Midwest BanCorp. | 20.64 | 22.79 | 10.4% |
| CTBI | Community Trust BanCorp. | 40.73 | 46.07 | 13.1% |
| EV | Eaton Vance Corp. | 34.95 | 47.31 | 35.4% |
| Average | 18.2% | |||
| DJI | Dow Jones Industrial | 24,100.51 | 28,135.38 | 16.7% |
| SPX | S&P 500 | 2,599.95 | 3,168.80 | 21.9% |
The top five companies, comprised mostly of regional banks, average returned was 18.2%.
U.S. Dividend Watch List: December 13, 2019
Another week, another record high for the market. At this moment, all we will be doing is track companies that have reach their yearly low and have a reversing pattern. Until then, we will continue to monitor the market and all our positions and potentially raise cash at the beginning of next year. Below are companies on our watch list this week. Continue reading
Posted in Dividend Achiever Watch List, Dividend Achievers, Dividend Watch List
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The chart below outlines the quarterly year-over-year percentage change in corporate profits after taxes versus the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1948 to 2019.
The chart below is the same data from 2011 to 2019 directly from the St. Louis Federal Reserve website.
See also: Consumer Sentiment 1897-2019
Posted in Corp profits trend, Earnings Trend
On October 7, 2019, when the 3-month treasury sat at 1.75%, we said the following:
“Tentatively, we expected the 3-month Treasury will decline into the range of 1.62% to 1.39%.”
By October 30, 2019, the Federal Reserve lowered rates when the daily 3-month Treasury was at 1.62%. Since that time, a pattern has emerged which is worth a quick take. Continue reading
Posted in 3-month, Interest Rate Monitor
On September 14, 2018, we said the following of the downside targets for AeroVironment (AVAV), when the stock was trading at $116.24:
“The conservative downside target of $62.26 is a lock in our view. To put this in perspective, AVAV would have to increase to $160.62 before the $62.26 level isn’t a normal ‘dip.’”
The numbers we based our downside targets on was with the assumption that AVAV could rise as high as $160.62, for a reasonable margin of error. Instead, AVAV peaked only two trading days later at $119.83 (the above chart has been adjusted to the peak).
The decline in AVAV has seen the stock fall as low as $49.54 on August 27, 2019, a drop of –58.65%. The most important element of the current decline is the ability of the stock price to remedy the preceding parabolic move. A drop of nearly-60% comes very close to fixing the previous disparity in the price.
From the August low, AVAV has managed to rally to the latest price at $61.81. The power of the reversal is highlighted in the fact that the stock price rose from the $49.54 level then achieved the $63.59 price. From the $63.59, the stock declined but could not achieve a price lower than $49.54.
The upside resistance levels are as follows:
Speculators (as opposed to Investors) should take these levels to be the points when the continuation of the upside will reverse to the prior low, as a re-test. Investors, basing their assessment on the fundamentals, can strategically enter positions breaking their intended investments in thirds or halves.
Posted in AVAV, Edson Gould, parabolic, Speed Resistance Lines, upside target
Below are the top five stocks by fundamental ratios for the U.S. Dividend Watch List dated November 29, 2019: Continue reading
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 reached another all-time high this week. Despite the strong move in those indexes, we have not seen the Dow Jones Transport confirm this bullish move. With markets at all-time highs, we have less than 30 companies on our watch list for the week. Continue reading
Posted in Dividend Achiever Watch List, Dividend Achievers, Dividend Watch List
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This is an update to our January 8, 2019 posting.
Worth pointing out, PCG is dropped from the S&P 500 index at the low.
Below are the valuation targets for Sysco Corp. (SYY) over the next 10 years. Continue reading
Below is a chart of Sysco Corp. (SYY) from 1974 to 2019 reflecting the year-over-year (YoY) percentage change.
Below is a chart of Stock Yards Bancorp (SYBT) from 1994 to 2019 reflecting the year-over-year (YoY) percentage change.
Below is a chart of Everest Re Group (RE) from 1996 to 2019 reflecting the year-over-year (YoY) percentage change.
Below are the valuation targets for Everest Re Group (RE) over the next 10 years. Continue reading