Category Archives: Teva Pharmaceutical

Teva Gets Slammed

On August 3, 2017, Teva Pharmaceutial (TEVA) got slammed after the company reported a loss for the quarter and reduced its 2017 earnings expectations.  Below is the updated Coppock Curve for TEVA .

Technically Speaking: Teva Pharmaceutical

On April 5, 2011, we said the following of the downside targets for Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA):

“Charles H. Dow indicated that the fair value of a stock is the average price that is paid by investors. The fair value is the point at which an investor, as opposed to speculators, will consider buying or selling a stock. The fair value that we’ve arrived is based on the low of July 2006. If Teva were to decline below $47.06, the prospects for $29.77 become almost inevitable.”

Since that article, as TEVA declined below the $47.06 level, the stock eventually declined to the the ascending $29.77 level by November 2013 as seen in the chart below.  After hitting the ascending $29.77 level, the price jumped to just north of $72.

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We’ll have to accept that this is all mere coincidence and slight of hand rather than any kind of basis in facts.  However, our claim has always been, if the target is achieved then review & decide whether to invest or if it is never achieved then move on to other opportunities.

Let’s review the prospects for TEVA under the current price structure which includes the periods since the November 2013 low to the present.  But first, you need to see the July 12, 2013 Speed Resistance Lines that we posted for TEVA as it is instructive and in alignment with the Dow Theory targets.

The long-term downside targets for TEVA based on the SRL indicated that the $32.50 level was the time to consider acquisition of the stock.  At that time we said the following:

“We could not determine a conservative downside target.  Because of this, we had to run some calculations and came up with the trendline of $43.33 and $32.50 as tentative support levels.”

Since TEVA provided the best indications using Dow Theory and came close using Edson Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines, we’re going to give the Dow Theory perspective in the long and short run and see where it takes us.

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The above chart indicates that at the current price Teva Pharmaceutical is considered below fair value ($38.23) as long as the fundamental data confirms what the price suggests.  Additionally, TEVA seems poised to achieve the downside target of the ascending $26.86 level (approx. $28.50).  Purchases of this stock are best made in stages with 50% of allotted funds at the current price and 25%+25% at predefined lower levels.

Nasdaq 100 Review

Below is the one year performance of our August 23, 2013 Nasdaq 100 Watch List stocks (8/23/2013 to 8/26/2014):

Symbol Name 2013 2014 % change
SHLD Sears Holdings Corp 39.6 34.67 -12.45%
EQIX Equinix, Inc. 170.01 217.25 27.79%
TEVA Teva Pharmaceutical 38.3 52.22 36.34%
CHRW Robinson Worldwide 57.2 68.45 19.67%
EXPE Expedia Inc. 48.84 87.43 79.01%
NUAN Nuance Comm. 19.31 17.17 -11.08%
MXIM Maxim Integrated 27.71 30.91 11.55%
BRCM Broadcom Corp. 25.24 38.81 53.76%
ISRG Intuitive Surgical 390.09 478.68 22.71%
NWSA News Corporation 15.75 17.62 11.87%
Avg. % change 23.92%
NDX Nasdaq 100 Index 30.26%

The watch list of stocks gained +23% versus a gain of +30% in the Nasdaq 100 Index.  The best performing stock, with gains of +79%, was Expedia which was a strong interest stock featured on our July 26, 2013 watch list.  At the time, we said the following:

Travel website operator Expedia (EXPE) has suddenly dropped in on our watch list with a –27.38% decline in the stock price on Friday July 26, 2013.  We’re not sure that a –28% decline in quarterly earnings requires a –27% decline in the stock price.  This type of activity suggests that since June 2012, investors had not sufficiently assessed the prospects of the company before acquiring the stock.  Extreme swings in the price indicate that there is more downside risk.

Applying Edson Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines gives us a conservative downside target of $42.56 and an extreme downside target of $22.70.

Our expectation is that there is a good chance that Expedia will decline to the $34 level.  Once falling below $34, Expedia should be reviewed on a fundamental basis as a going concern.  There may be significant opportunity for this stock as the performance has been in line with industry competitors.

As is often the case, we were too conservative in believing that EXPE would achieve the rising $34.00 level.  Instead, EXPE fell exactly to the rising $42.56 level and moved higher from there (updated chart below).

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Another strong interest stock in the same July 26, 2013 posting, Equinix (EQIX) also fell only as low as the conservative downside target.  From the peak price of $229.02, EQIX spent only four trading days below $158.37.  It has been nothing but an uphill climb since.

The worst performing stock was Sears Holdings (SHLD).  Sears has essentially traded with descending peaks since 2007 with price support at around $30.  A break below $30 could result in significant loss for any remaining shareholders.  Private equity firms must be circling Sears at the prospect of a decline below the long-term support.

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The strong interest stock from the August 23, 2013 watch list was Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM). At the time we said of MXIM:

“The stock of most interest to us is Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM).  Maxim has had a great run since our March 20, 2010 highlight of the chip sector as potential investment candidates (found here).  In the chart below, since the 2008 trough, Maxim has maintained a consistent ability to rebound from the conservative downside target of $26.97.  However, if the stock cannot hold the line at $26.91, then we expect that the stock will fall to the $19.03 level.  The extreme downside target is $11.10, however, we don’t expected this to be achieved.  Potential investments at the current level along with stepped up amounts of capital at $19.03 and $15.87 is recommended.”

Since August 23, 2013, Maxim increased as much as +29.05% before falling to a 1-year gain of “only” +11%.  If we include the dividend of 3.80%, the total return would be +15% for the last year.  Below is the updated SRL for MXIM with new conservative and extreme downside targets.

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Although Maxim has fallen considerably since the June 2014 peak, we’re only willing to re-consider the stock after falling at or below the rising $27.79 level.

Investment Consideration

To put all of the gains (and losses) into perspective, we like to compare any profits with the historical market return.  Below are the annualized compounded annual growth rates (CAGR) for the last 50, 40, 30, 20 and 10 years (adjusted for inflation) [source].

years CAGR
50 5.90%
40 5.80%
30 8.42%
20 6.71%
10 6.67%

If an investor can achieve two times (2x) the 30-year CAGR in a single year, it is worth considering alternative investment opportunities while selling the principal and allowing the profits to compound in those stocks that pay a dividend.

Nasdaq 100 Watch List: June 21, 2013

Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 10% of their respective 52-week lows. Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and rigorous due diligence.

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Nasdaq 100 Watch List: January 11, 2013

Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 10% of their respective 52-week lows. Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and rigorous due diligence.

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