The chart below breaks down the performance of the stocks from the Canadian Dividend Watch List from August 2015. We’ve decided to take a different tack than in the past by showing the performance of the watch list based on the analyst estimates that projected stocks that would increase in value in the following year (darlings), decrease in value (bums), the 2015 watchlist and the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSE).
As we said of the bums last year, “stocks that are considered to decline in price should be examined first and eliminated based fundamental and technical factors. Stocks slated to gain the most should be considered high risk.” All stock are not created equal, however, stocks that have lower expectations by analysts should be considered first for their investment merit. The darlings underperformed the Toronto Stock Exchange while the entire August 2015 watchlist exceeded the performance of the TSE by an average of +1.50%.
In a recent article on SeekingAlpha.com titled “The Bigger The Boom, The Bigger The Bust” by William Koldus, it was suggested that:
“…we have already forgotten the lessons that should have been learned in 2008.”
“Monetary policy makers have set the course for the next ‘Minsky Moment.’"
“A good dose of volatility in both the stock and bond markets would be good for all financial market participants.”
In our review of Koldus’ work, we’ll attempt to demonstrate that analysis on stock market history should not begin with evidence that is narrowly defined. Our introduction of secular trends in the market might help put current market moves into perspective. We’ll also show that the Federal Reserve might not be as powerful as some might think. Finally, we hope to demonstrate that a moving market, either up or down, is good regardless of the extent and timing.
It was another strong week for the market and the continued to make new all-time high. The average was up 0.43% for the week and the Dow gained 0.6%. At the end of the week, there are 10 companies on our watch list. Continue reading
The NLO team executed the following transaction(s):
In the month of July 2016, gold increased +1.60% and gold stocks increased +12.94%.