U.S. Dividend Watch List: January 23, 2015

Top Five Watch List Performance Review

In our ongoing review of the NLO Dividend Watch List, we have taken the top five stocks on our list from January 24, 2014 and have checked the performance one year later. The top five companies on that list can be seen in the table below.

Symbol Name 2013 Price 2014 Price % change
PM Philip Morris International 81.50 82.82 1.6%
TGT Target Corp. 57.72 75.29 30.4%
T AT&T Inc 33.42 33.37 -0.1%
MCD McDonald's Corp. 94.43 89.56 -5.2%
WRB W.R. Berkley Corporation 40.18 49.90 24.2%
      Average 10.2%
         
DJI Dow Jones Industrial 15,879.11 17,672.60 11.3%
SPX S&P 500 1,790.29 2,051.82 14.6%

Watch List Review

Our top five kept pace with the Dow but lacked the S&P 500 by 4%. The best performer was Target (TGT). The stock was under tremendous pressure a year ago after the data breach but out team believed that it was a one-time event thus took position and was very bullish on the company. Expectation for Target was so low and all the bad news were priced into the stock.

The worse performer was McDonald (MCD) because a drop in earning by 8% in 2014. However, analysts' estimate that net income will rise by 10%, from $4.82 to $5.32. That place forward P/E at 17x 2015 earning.

An insurance company, W.R. Berkley (WRB), did well with a gain of 24%. Net income rose 21.5% for the year but what may propelled the stock higher was the special dividend paid out at the end of 2014.

U.S. Dividend Watch List: January 16,2015

After a volatile week, this week turned out to be a great one for bull. The market had a solid gain of 3%. Despite that, there are virtually the same number of companies on our watch list as there were one week ago. pocket of weakness can be seen in several factor based on our list. There are plenty of regional and community banks to choose from. There are also many large industrial tech companies to consider. Below are 27 companies on our watch list. Continue reading

Gold Stock Indicator: January 23, 2015

Gold, as represented by the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), increased +1.89% this week while the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Stock Index (XAU) declined by-0.18%.  On a closing basis, each index made new highs this week.  However, some ground was given up on Friday.

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2014 Performance Review

Below is a chart of how our investment portfolio performed against the S&P 500 index and the 30-year Treasury based on the January 2, 2014 rate (found here).

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Analyst Estimates: U.S. Dividend Watch List

Below are the price projections based on analyst earnings estimates for the stocks on our recent U.S. Dividend Watch List dated January 16, 2015.  These estimates project the price change for the respective stocks by the end of 2015.

U.S. Dividend Watch List: January 16, 2015

Top Five Watch List Performance Review

In our ongoing review of the NLO Dividend Watch List, we have taken the top five stocks on our list from January 17, 2014 and have checked the performance one year later. The top five companies on that list can be seen in the table below.

Symbol Name 2013 Price 2014 Price % change
TGT Target Corp. 60.24 74.94 24.4%
PM Philip Morris International 83.33 82.70 -0.8%
T AT&T Inc 33.70 33.80 0.3%
TEG Integrys Energy Group Inc 53.64 80.59 50.2%
ED Consolidated Edison 53.96 69.10 28.1%
      Average 20.4%
         
DJI Dow Jones Industrial 16,458.56 17,511.57 6.4%
SPX S&P 500 1,838.70 2,019.42 9.8%

Watch List Review

Our top five outperformed the market by a wide margin. The biggest contribution came from the utility sector. The search for yield has driven shares of Integrys Energy (TEG) and Consolidated Edison (ED) up by +50% and +28%, respectively. Interestingly, shares of Philip Morris (PM) and AT&T (T) which yielded above 4.5% didn't fair too well and were virtually flat for the year. Another exceptional performer was Target (TGT) which was hit with bad news about a data hack, at the time. As we mentioned one year ago, we believed the news provided long-term investors with great opportunity to buy shares at discount.

U.S. Dividend Watch List: January 16,2015

It was a tough week to navigate the market as volatility spiked with surge in Swiss Franc which took the market by surprise. The Swiss Franc jumped by nearly +30% against the euro and +18% against the dollar after the Swiss National Bank's decision to eliminate the cap it placed on the value of the Franc. We believe that a "black swan" type of event such as this creates volatility in favor long-term investor. At the end of the week, there are 89 companies to search through. However, we've filtered out some companies and have displayed 39 below. Continue reading