U.S. Dividend Watch List: March 17, 2017

The S&P 500 appears to be consolidating between 2,350 and 2,400. We will be looking to see if the bull can push above 2,400 level this week.

Although the stock market is virtually at its all-time high, the market fundamentals are comparable to last year. We observed the market multiple of 24x in September 2016 which is the same multiple we are seeing now.  One thing to note is rising interest rates during the same time frame.  The 10-year notes rose to 2.50% from 1.60%, a staggering +56% increase in rate. However, at the same time the stock market is up more than +10%.

As the saying goes, a rising tide lifts all boats.  A bull market lifts all companies and there are only 20 companies on our watch list this week. Continue reading

Canadian Dividend Watch List: March 2017

Performance Review

A review of our watch list from March 2016 resulted in the following:

  • The entire list declined –1.71% versus analyst estimated gain of +23.10%
  • The top five companies on the list lost an average of –9.62%
  • The stock estimated by analysts to perform the worst (ThompsonReuters: TRI.TO) gained +14.63%
  • The stock estimated by analysts to perform the best (Dream Office REIT: D-UN.TO) lost –5.80%

These totals compare to the +15.36 change in the Toronto Stock Exchange in the same period of time.

Interest Rate Monitor

The markets are anticipating an interest rate increase at the next Federal Reserve meeting on economic policy and many could legitimately say that this anticipation is what drives the short-term rates higher. 

However, history is on our side on this matter.  As pointed out in previous postings, Federal Reserve rate policy always follows the actions of short-term rates as demonstrated in the last comparable cycle in interest rates from 1953 to 1980.

image

 

Silver Update

On May 5, 2011, when the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) was trading at $33.72, we said the following:

“…we’d like to see the price decline to the dashed blue line at $15.41 or below.”

Coppock Curve: February 2017

Since the Coppock Curve flashed a buy indication at the end of March 2016, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained +17.80% while the S&P 500 gained +15%. Our strategy of purchasing Guggenheim S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) has proven well timed and is up +16.70%. Below is an update to the Coppock Curve.

Continue reading

Earnings Recession Over?

The chart below outlines the Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y) percentage change in the S&P 500 earnings since 1960.  From what we can tell, the slide from the 2010 peak in Y-o-Y earnings in the S&P may have bottomed in 2015 and is on a path to the 2013 peak which could be followed by the 1964 recovery peak.

image

What stands out about the current move upward is the fact that the decline went into negative territory.  While the decline wasn’t as low as we’d like, at or below the 1970 level, we have to accept that there are few times this indication went negative without a very strong recovery to the upside.  For now, we’re hedging our commentary by watching for the 2013 level before going on to the 1964 peak. 

However, we suspect that the recovery in S&P earnings could test the 1976 peak.  What does that translate into for the stock market.  Although not as low as the 1975 trough, the Dow Jones Industrial Average nearly doubled within a two year period.  Let’s call for a +50% increase in the Dow Jones Industrial Average from the 2015 low.  This would bring the index to 24,153.57 by 2018.

Resource Links:

U.S. Dividend Watch List: March 3, 2017

Top Five Watch List Performance Review

In our ongoing review of the NLO Dividend Watch List, we have taken the top five stocks on our list from March 4, 2017 and have checked the performance one year later. The top five companies on that list can be seen in the table below.

Symbol Name 2015 Price 2016 Price % change
AIG American International Group, Inc. 52.30 64.22 22.8%
MON Monsanto 85.89 114.97 33.9%
AROW Arrow Financial Corp. 26.39 34.75 31.7%
LLY Eli Lilly & 73.60 83.78 13.8%
IPCC Infinity Property & Casualty Corp 75.55 96.10 27.2%
      Average 25.9%
         
DJI Dow Jones Industrial 17,006.77 21,005.71 23.5%
SPX S&P 500 1,999.99 2,383.12 19.2%

We highlighted the top two companies last year. Needless to say, they've done well. However, our assessment of Monsanto (MON) was not accurate as we suggested our reader to be more careful of the projected valuation. Valueline estimated shares to be undervalued by 40% at the time and shares have risen 33% since last year. As for AIG (AIG), shares were trading 30% below book value last year. Since then, shares have climbed 22%.

U.S. Dividend Watch List: March 3, 2017

Another week, another record high which lead to potential rate hike by the Fed. We'll have an update to the Coppock Curve mid week. Until then, please review the list below for dividend paying company trading at or near the low.

Continue reading

Bull Market Ranking

For anyone who claims that the current bull market is a Federal Reserve induced binge based on manipulated interest rates, this market still needs to exceed the bull markets that followed the declines of 1835 & 1852, bringing the Dow Jones Industrial Average above the 24,768.

image

This market has a way to go in order to exceed bull markets that occurred when there was no Federal Reserve Bank.  The next stop for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, to beat the bull market that began in 1842 and culminated in a gain of +236% by 1852, is 21,673.

We could easily see new highs in the stock market, however, it ain’t because of the Fed.  More here.

Analyst Estimates

Performance Review

The analyst estimates for the U.S. Dividend Watch List published on March 4, 2016 show a relatively consistent pattern.  The level of out-performance was primarily centered on the stocks that were considered to be high risk while stocks most favored by analysts barely exceeded their expected 1-year returns, on a relative basis.  The categories that we’ve created are displayed below:

image

While the actual return for the “high expectation, low return” category exceeded the analyst estimates by +15.45%, the margin was far less than the +36.93% and +47.11% for the “average risk” and “high risk” groups, respectively.

image

Stocks that stood out in the past year are those that actually had greater percentage change from the March 4, 2016 level than the March 3, 2017 level.  These are stocks that are down from their highs.  It should be noted that none of these standout stocks are found in the “high expectation” category and three of the four stocks are found in the “average risk” group.

image

Quick Take: Ecolab Inc.

On March 11, 2016, we did a review of Ecolab providing the following conclusion:

“With the stock already trading below most fundamental averages, a purchase plan at the current level and lower would be ideal.  A three-part purchase plan at the current price (50%), at the ascending $83.03 level (25%) and approximately at the ascending $61.91 level (25% would be acceptable.”

Since our posting last year, Ecolab (ECL) has increased +17.57%.  This isn’t proof of the quality of analysis, however, we believe our updated could provided insight for future developments related to the directions of the stock price.

We will review the December 14, 2007 Value Line Investment Survey and compare their 2010-2012 projections and see how Value Line’s estimates were far short of their own expectations.  Afterwards, we will review Value Line Investment Survey’s March 3, 2017 numbers and projections and see how their estimates stack up going forward.

Finally, we’ll revisit the technicals that we presented last year and see how that has played out and potential outcomes going forward.

Gold Stock Indicator: February 2017

Since our January 2017 posting on gold and precious metals stocks, the price of gold has increased +3.48% while at the same time precious stocks have declined –5.87%.  There are some contradictions in the movement of each indicator which we will interpret below.

image

Canadian Dividend Watch List: February 2017

Performance Review

The following is the performance review for the watch list from our February 16, 2016 Canadian Dividend Watch List.

image

Looking at the categories above, the average actual 1-year return was led by the “high expectation, low return” with a gain of +26.35% followed by the Toronto Stock Exchange with a gain of +25.13%.  Coming in last was the “average risk, average returns” group with a gain of +17.36%. 

However, the distinguishing aspect of this review is the fact that analyst estimated gains show a high level of underperformance for the “high expectation, low return” group as compared to the “average risk, average return” and “high risk, high return” categories.  Both categories (average risk and high risk) exceeded analyst estimates, making for better risk adjusted investment returns.

Bitcoin Review

Below is a list of Bitcoin commentary that we believe is instructive in highlighting the valued of analysis (fundamental, technical or otherwise).  The current run up in price was highlighted in our article titled “Bitcoin: Speculators Unite” published on October 7, 2014

image

 

image

Our only third-party proof of the October 7, 2014 article can be found on SeekingAlpha.com under the stocktalks section under the symbol COIN.  For reasons unknown, although the article is shown to have been posted an error appears at the provided link.  Some of the other Bitcoin articles posted to our site can be found on SeekingAlpha.com at the blog section of our page.

U.S. Dividend Watch List: February 17, 2017

Previous Year Performance Review

In our on going review of the NLO Dividend Watch List, we have taken the top five stocks on our list from February 19, 2016 and have checked the performance one year later. The top five companies on that list can be seen in the table below.

Symbol Name 2015 Price 2016 Price % change
AIG American International Group, Inc. 51.53 62.50 21.3%
SIAL Sigma-Aldrich Corp. 139.76 139.76 0.0%
SWK Stanley Black & Decker 92.00 126.65 37.7%
JCI Johnson Controls Inc 34.88 41.91 20.2%
FLO Flowers Foods Inc 16.36 19.57 19.6%
      Average 19.7%
         
DJI Dow Jones Industrial 16,391.99 20,624.05 25.8%
SPX S&P 500 1,917.78 2,351.16 22.6%

The top five companies on our watch list had an average gain of 19.7% which trailed the average 6%. One of the factor contributing to our underperformance, if you consider 19.7% as such, came from Sigma-Aldrich (SIAL) which didn't trade up or down due to the acquisition. Shares remained flat for the entire year. Although we spoke little about the list, we were lucky enough to highlight two companies with exceptional performance. Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) and Cintas (CTAS) were the two companies our team eluded to. Cintas rose 42% and Stanley Black & Decker rose 37%. Our justification for their consideration was because they were part of an elite group called Dividend Aristocrat.

U.S. Dividend Watch List: January 17, 2017

Another week, another record for the market. The bull continued to push the market higher but in contrary, the number of company approaching the low has not decline much. Below are 22 companies on our watch list. Continue reading

The Economy Since the Crisis

A review of economic data encompassing the financial crisis to the present as presented on February 14, 2017, a must read.

image