Let’s do a quick review of the evidence so far.
July 2010 to November 2011 Bitcoin increases +36,900% and then declines –93.07% within a two year period.
November 2011 to July 2013 Bitcoin increases +9,771% and falls –70.93% in less than two years.
April 2013 to October 2014, Bitcoin increases +1,629% and falls –72.21% in less than two years.
Is A Crash Coming?
We can’t be certain that history will repeat. However, the evidence suggests that a decline of –70% to –90% is the norm. Let’s watch.
Posted in Bitcoin
Below is the performance of the May 2016:
| symbol | name | May-16 | Jun-17 | % chg |
| SCRYY | SCOR SE | 3.29 | 4.06 | 23.40% |
| LFC | China Life Insurance Co. Ltd. | 10.81 | 15.5 | 43.39% |
| NWLI | National Western Life Group, Inc. | 205.51 | 320.56 | 55.98% |
| AXS | AXIS Capital Holdings Limited | 54.33 | 63.61 | 17.08% |
| RE | Everest Re Group Ltd. | 178.01 | 253.98 | 42.68% |
| IPCC | Infinity Property and Casualty Corp. | 76.55 | 94.15 | 22.99% |
| AAME | Atlantic American Corp. | 3.45 | 3.75 | 8.70% |
| MURGY | Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft Aktiengesellschaft | 18.86 | 19.88 | 5.41% |
| ESGR | Enstar Group Limited | 155.17 | 194.5 | 25.35% |
| BWINA | Baldwin & Lyons Inc. | 23 | 23.9 | 3.91% |
The average change of the entire equal weighted list from May of 2016 was +24.89%. This is contrasted with the +19.38% gain that was achieved by the iShares Dow Jones US Insurance Index.
Previous Year Performance Review
In our ongoing review of the NLO Dividend Watch List, we have taken the top five stocks on our list from June 24, 2016 and have checked the performance one year later. The top five companies on that list can be seen in the table below.
| Symbol | Name | 2015 Price | 2016 Price | % change |
| CAH | Cardinal Health | 75.23 | 79.68 | 5.9% |
| STBA | S&T BanCorp. | 24.04 | 35.36 | 47.1% |
| TIF | Tiffany & Co. | 60.09 | 91.79 | 52.8% |
| GS | Goldman Sachs Group | 141.86 | 217.19 | 53.1% |
| HFC | HollyFrontier Corporation | 24.16 | 27.15 | 12.4% |
| Average | 34.2% | |||
| DJI | Dow Jones Industrial | 18,011.07 | 21,394.76 | 18.8% |
| SPX | S&P 500 | 2,113.32 | 2,438.30 | 15.4% |
The performance of the top five companies were exceptional. The best performing stock was Goldman Sachs (GS) which gained 53%. Our take on the financial sector was wrong as we specifically urged readers to hold off on this sector for several months. Shares of Goldman did not fall below $139.50.
Trailing Goldman by a fraction of percentage point is Tiffany & Co. (TIF) whose shares rose 52.8%. Share price closed the week at $91.79 and we said last year that our fair value estimate for this company is around $100. Our assessment for Tiffany have proven to be correct and profitable as we were long Tiffany at the time of writing.
The worse performer was Cardinal Health (CAH) which gained only 5.9%. We thought shares should trade closer to $85 but that was wishful thinking on our part. Despite that, the company continued to provide dividend as income to shareholders.
U.S. Dividend Watch List: June 23, 2017
It was an uneventful week for the market and we're in the waiting mode to see of the S&P can break above 2,450 mark. At the end of the week, there are 36 companies on our dividend watch list. Continue reading
Posted in Dividend Achiever Watch List, Dividend Achievers, Dividend Watch List
Tagged members
The NLO team executed the following transaction(s):
Performance Review
Below is the 1-year performance of the Canadian dividend stocks from our June 2016 watch list:
It seems that even the Fed can't move the market with interest rate hike as the market was flat for the week. Despite the market being near its all-time high, our work of searching companies at their new low doesn't stop. Below, you will find a list of companies with good historical record of dividend paying company trading at or near its yearly low. Continue reading
Posted in Dividend Achiever Watch List, Dividend Achievers, Dividend Watch List
Tagged members
According to Coindesk.com, Bitcoin achieved a closing high of $3,018.55. This was +30% above our January 1, 2017 estimated upside target of $2,316.35, when Bitcoin was priced at $997.69. Now that Bitcoin has establish a new declining trend, we’ll provide our interpretation on the short-term moves in the price of Bitcoin and new upside/downside targets based on the $3,018.55 peak.
Posted in Bitcoin, downside, upside target
On September 10, 2015, we posted on the prospects for Dover Corp (DOV). The following is our review on that posting. We’ll review where Dover is on Edson Gould’s Altimeter and Dow Theory indications of potential upside and downside risks.
In our last posting on March 13, 2017, we said that the financial markets were widely anticipating that interest rates would increase. However, we persist in the belief that the leading indication of interest rate direction comes from watching the direction of the 3-month Treasury, which is a market driven instrument. As reflected in the chart below, we’re in for a bumpy ride ahead.
Posted in Interest Rate Monitor, interest rates
The following is a study of the Nasdaq Composite Index when applied to the Coppock Curve. Our goals is to determine the period for the most optimal performance with the least amount of risk. We provide data on the Nasdaq Composite Index from 1974 to the present.
The Coppock Curve is one of the technical indicators that we focus on for long-term buy signals for the stock market. The Coppock Curve is only useful as a BUY indicator when the chart goes from positive territory to the negative territory then turns decidedly upward. As previously indicated, the Coppock Curve does not provide SELL signals in any way. Once the signal turns upward (while in the negative territory), investors should consider buying stocks at the beginning of the month.
The following is the Coppock Curve analysis based on the “buy” indication and the subsequent performance. The review of the Dow Jones Industrial Average can be found in our June 7, 2017 posting while the S&P 500 performance can be found in our June 8, 2017 posting.
The following is a study of the S&P 500 Index when applied to the Coppock Curve. Our goals is to determine the period for the most optimal performance with the least amount of risk. We provide data on the S&P 500 Index from 1954 to the present.
The Coppock Curve is one of the technical indicators that we focus on for long-term buy signals for the stock market. The Coppock Curve is only useful as a BUY indicator when the chart goes from positive territory to the negative territory then turns decidedly upward. As previously indicated, the Coppock Curve does not provide SELL signals in any way. Once the signal turns upward (while in the negative territory), investors should consider buying stocks at the beginning of the month.
The following is the Coppock Curve analysis based on the “buy” indication and the subsequent performance. We will follow this with the Nasdaq Composite in the coming days. The review of the Dow Jones Industrial Average can be found in our June 7, 2017 posting.
The NLO team executed the following transaction(s):
The following is a study of the Dow Jones Industrial Average when applied to the Coppock Curve. Our goals is to determine the period for the most optimal performance with the least amount of risk. We provide data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1931 to the present.
The Coppock Curve is one of the technical indicators that we focus on for long-term buy signals for the stock market. The Coppock Curve is only useful as a BUY indicator when the chart goes from positive territory to the negative territory then turns decidedly upward. As previously indicated, the Coppock Curve does not provide SELL signals in any way. Once the signal turns upward (while in the negative territory), investors should consider buying stocks at the beginning of the month.
The following is the Coppock Curve analysis based on the “buy” indication and the subsequent performance. We will follow this review with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite in the coming days.
The NLO team executed the following transaction(s):
In our Nasdaq 100 Watch List posted on May 29, 2017, we discussed some attributes of Stericycle (SRCL) that we found interesting. In this posting, we’ll cover some addition thoughts on the fundamentals of Stericycle.