Below is the insurance watch list for the month of September 2017. In additions, we have included the analyst one year estimated returns and a review of watch list stock.
Carlisle Companies (CSL) is a stock we have been following for a long time. The company is described as a diversified manufacturing company and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona. Our review will cover the Altimeter to determine where Carlisle appears to be currently and where the most ideal time to buy the stock.
This is all you need to know, Bitcoin is setting the stage for dramatic fireworks. We’re sticking to our call that “parabolic moves are resolved through dramatic declines. We believe that the conservative downside target of $1,911.83 will be achieved.” This outrageous claim is not based in hope or fear, it derived for the previous accurate tracking of price declines well in advance of the fall. However, based on the new high at $4,950.72, below we have included updated Speed Resistance Lines for those that are following along with us.
There are 50 names on the list this week. We hope that you find companies that suit your investment strategy. Continue reading
Posted in Dividend Achiever Watch List, Dividend Achievers, Dividend Watch List
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A company that has recently caught our eye is Southside Bancshares (SBSI). Headquartered in Tyler, Texas, Southside Bancshares is “…a bank holding company for Southside Bank (the Bank). The Company is a community-focused financial institution that offers a range of financial services to individuals, businesses, municipal entities, and nonprofit organizations in the communities (source: Google Finance).”
In this review, we’ll examine the Altimeter for Southside Bancshares and attempt to determine ideal times to buy the stock. In addition, rather than expect that the stock will go from the buy (lowest) end of the range to the sell (highest) end of the range, we’ll track the stock from the buy level to the mean level to see what kind of investment performance is generated.
On August 31, 2017, we executed the following transaction(s):
Last year, we saw Ritchie Brothers (RBA) go from $27 to $35 overnight due to an acquisition that was made by the company. In our opinion, the jump in the stock price needed “…to be resolved in some way or another.” The resolution came after RBA managed to climb as high as $38.77. Currently, RBA is down –23.42% from the high and down –11.37% from the same date last year. Below is our update on RBA and the possible direction of the stock from here.
Performance Review
Below is the performance of the stocks on our watch list from January 25, 2017.
So far, the analysts haven’t fared well in their estimates. Stocks on the left side of the spectrum were expected to decline while those on the right were expected to do very well. Click on the chart to see what the analyst thought in January 2017. In the same period of time, the Nasdaq 100 has gained +17.26%.
When it comes to financial markets, the trend is your friend. In the case of interest rates, more specifically the 3-month Treasury, the trend is up. Our position is that the free market movement of the 3-month Treasury is the lead for what we can reasonable expected from the Fed Funds Rate which is managed by the Federal Reserve.
Gold and gold stocks are really dragging it out. There may be a recovery on the horizon but you wouldn’t know it from the lackluster performance in the face of Bitcoin going parabolic and daily geopolitical machinations.
What We Got Wrong
On June 15, 2017, we proposed that a prior decline of –14.94% had set expectations of what Bitcoin participants were willing to accept for downside risk. That logic was turned on its head when Bitcoin declined from the high of $3,018.55 and then fell as low as $1,938.94 or –35.76%.
The revision that we’re making is that as each decline grows, participants will accept even larger declines if the expectation is that it will exceed the prior peak. So far, Bitcoin participants accepted a –14.94% decline followed by a –35.76%. In each instance, these declines were followed by new highs in the price of Bitcoin. By our rationale, Bitcoin will now fall as much as –35% and possibly more as participants become inured to the pain of loss in anticipation of new highs.
Where We Got Lucky
We can’t confidently claim to be right about the prior calls that appear to be “correct.” However, we can point out the coincidences that occurred:
It has been an interesting week to say the least. With political unrest occurring while the markets continue to stay at or near the all-time highs. However, the rally was short lived and markets sold off nearly -3% from the high by the end of the week. The market breadth, based on the number of companies on our watch list, is telling a different story. There are 61 names on the list this week which is the most we've had since the start of this year. Continue reading
Performance Review
In the chart below, highlighted in blue, are the analyst’s 2016 estimated percentage changes for what the respective stock was expected to do. In red, we see what the actual outcome was for the stock in the past year.
Overall, we believe that the analysts covering the stocks on our watch list from last year did relatively well. The three stocks expected to underperform were on target. Only two of the ten stocks expected to increase failed to register on the positive side of the column.
“’Run your public company as if it were privately held, and you will be making the right decision for your public stockholders.’ And maybe you won’t be vulnerable to its being taken private at twice the current stock price… (page 23).”
Posted in Quest for Value, Quote of the Day
On August 10, 2017, we executed the following transaction(s):