Canadian Dividend Watch List: August 2017

Performance Review

In the chart below, highlighted in blue, are the analyst’s 2016 estimated percentage changes for what the respective stock was expected to do.   In red, we see what the actual outcome was for the stock in the past year.

image

Overall, we believe that the analysts covering the stocks on our watch list from last year did relatively well. The three stocks expected to underperform were on target.  Only two of the ten stocks expected to increase failed to register on the positive side of the column.

Quote: The Quest For Value

“’Run your public company as if it were privately held, and you will be making the right decision for your public stockholders.’  And maybe you won’t be vulnerable to its being taken private at twice the current stock price… (page 23).”

Transaction Alert

On August 10, 2017, we executed the following transaction(s):

Continue reading

U.S Dividend Watch List: August 4, 2017

Previous Year Performance Review

In our ongoing review of the NLO Dividend Watch List, we have taken the top five stocks on our list from August 5, 2016 and have checked the performance one year later. The top five companies on that list can be seen in the table below.

Symbol Name 2015 Price 2016 Price % change
GCI Gannett Co Inc 12.27 8.96 -27.0%
NPBC National Penn Bancshares 10.72 10.72 0.0%
CCBG Capital City Bank Group 13.84 21.32 54.0%
BF-B Brown-Forman Corp. CL 'B' 48.75 48.52 -0.5%
WFC Wells Fargo & 48.68 52.84 8.5%
      Average 7.0%
         
DJI Dow Jones Industrial 18,543.53 22,092.81 19.1%
SPX S&P 500 2,182.87 2,476.83 13.5%

Little was said about the top five companies in prior year. The one actionable item from our commentary was additional purchase of Carbo Ceramic (CRR) which didn't pan out well as oil supply continue to exceed demand. Despite that, the top five companies on our list returned 7% on average. The largest gain came from small regional bank Capital City Bank (CCBG). The biggest decline occurred in Gannett (GCI).

U.S. Dividend Watch List: August 4, 2017

The Dow reached another milestone breaking above 22,000 mark and closed the week at an all-time high. As a student of Dow Theory, it would be interesting to see Dow Jones Transport achieve the same mark. Despite that, we are still a continuation of a bull market. Below are companies on our watch list which we use as a starting point for our investment research. Continue reading

Teva Gets Slammed

On August 3, 2017, Teva Pharmaceutial (TEVA) got slammed after the company reported a loss for the quarter and reduced its 2017 earnings expectations.  Below is the updated Coppock Curve for TEVA .

Review: Lumber Liquidator

As early as February 2015, when the stock price of Lumber Liquidator (LL) was trading at $50, we had indicated that there was a risk that Lumber Liquidator could decline below $23.47.  Since that time, LL had declined as low as $11.

In March 2015, we outlined our own theory of a coincidence indicator that would help investors know when the price of LL should recover.  Since that time, LL has fallen in line with our theory and has subsequently increased in price along with our proposed coincidence indicator.

From the low in LL stock price in 2016, we have seen the stock price climb as much as +200%.  The actual gain based on our recommended purchase price would be approximately +16% (8% annualized) assuming equal share amounts at/or below the recommended levels.

So what does the coincidence indicator say about LL and the prospects going forward?  The chart below is clear on this matter:

Performance Review: Helmerich and Payne

On January 15, 2017, we reviewed Helmerich and Payne (HP) after it achieved our July 2, 2016 upside target of $79.16.  At the time, we reflected on the following thoughts:

“The only question now is the selling of the stock.”

For all intents and purposes, HP should have been considered for selling the principal or the entire position.  Since the January 15, 2017 posting the stock has had the following price action:

image

Our fear then was, “Can we handle see[ing] the stock fall back to where we bought it?”  This thought only comes to mind when or if the stock price substantially exceeds the norm for an individual investment.  At the time, HP had annualized gains of more than +60%.

For now, it is back to the drawing board for HP.  We’ll have to re-examine the attributes for the stock to determine if investment is warranted or not.

Technical Take: Altria

Below we outline the technical view on Altria (MO) applying Dow Theory, Coppock Curve and the Spare/Tengler models.  Dow Theory is a “price as a reflection of value” method which we use to determine downside targets.  The Coppock Curve highlights possible buy indications.  When we apply the Spare/Tengler methodology, a technical approach to viewing fundamental data, we find some level of coincidence with Dow Theory.

Insurance Watch List: July 2017

Below is the Insurance Watch List for July 2017:

Canadian Dividend Watch List: July 2017

Performance Review

The Canadian Dividend Watch List from July 2016 gained an equal weighted average of +6.56%.  This is contrasted by the Toronto Stock Exchange gain of +4.65% in the same period of time.  The top performing stock was Cogeco Inc. (CGO.TO) with a gain of +50.94%.  The worst performing stock was Cominar REIT (CUF-UN.TO) with a decline of –23.17%.

image

U.S Dividend Watch List: July 21, 2017

Previous Year Performance Review

In our ongoing review of the NLO Dividend Watch List, we have taken the top five stocks on our list from July 22, 2016 and have checked the performance one year later. The top five companies on that list can be seen in the table below.

Symbol Name 2015 Price 2016 Price % change
AXS Axis Capital Holdings Ltd 53.56 65.00 21.4%
WFC Wells Fargo & 48.32 54.17 12.1%
FNB F.N.B. Corp. 12.13 13.29 9.6%
TIF Tiffany & Co. 62.00 93.71 51.1%
HFC HollyFrontier Corporation 24.12 27.32 13.3%
      Average 21.5%
         
DJI Dow Jones Industrial 18,570.85 21,580.07 16.2%
SPX S&P 500 2,175.03 2,472.54 13.7%

The top five companies from our list one year ago gained on average 21.5%. The biggest contributor to this gain came from Tiffany & Co. (TIF) which rose 51.1%. We took a bullish bet on Tiffany last year with a call option that turned out to be a well timed speculation. You can find more detail about that transaction here.

U.S. Dividend Watch List: July 21, 2017

It's another record week for the market as both the Dow Jones Industrial and S&P 500 reached all-time high. Interestingly, we believe that market breadth may be weakening as more more companies (more than 40) are appearing on our watch list. Similar condition last year produced 7 companies on our watch list. Our team would urge caution as new positions are established and existing positions are accumulated. If one are to start accumulating, we suggest start with companies on our watch list. Continue reading

U.S Dividend Watch List: July 7, 2017

Previous Year Performance Review

In our ongoing review of the NLO Dividend Watch List, we have taken the top five stocks on our list from July 8, 2016 and have checked the performance one year later. The top five companies on that list can be seen in the table below.

Symbol Name 2015 Price 2016 Price % change
HFC HollyFrontier Corporation 22.72 27.09 19.2%
NPBC National Penn Bancshares 10.72 10.72 0.0%
STT State Street Corp. 53.23 90.87 70.7%
STBA S&T BanCorp. 24.34 36.92 51.7%
AXS Axis Capital Holdings Ltd 53.98 64.13 18.8%
      Average 32.1%
         
DJI Dow Jones Industrial 18,146.74 21,414.34 18.0%
SPX S&P 500 2,129.90 2,425.18 13.9%

The average return of the top five companies were exceptional at 32.1%. We were somewhat bullish about financial sector due to the large number of financial companies on our list. As such, we pointed our readers to Financial Sector ETF (XLF) which rose 32% for the year. Such strategy eliminated individual share risk. However, doing so would preclude you to more lucrative gain from shares of the like of State Street (STT) and S&T BanCorp (STBA)

Other notable companies include Tiffany (TIF), Target (TGT), Brown-Forman (BF-B), and Cardinal Health (CAH). Only Tiffany managed a positive return for the year. We may be blinded by our personal bias but we believe that these names still offer great value proposition for any income investors.

U.S. Dividend Watch List: July 7, 2017

There was some volatility in the market this week. Though the market ended the week relatively flat, the VIX rose 14% for the week. We urge readers to take caution as correction could occur at any moment. Our strategy is to utilize our watch list as a starting place for research. Below, you will 47 companies on our watch list. Continue reading

Transaction Alert

The NLO team executed the following transaction(s):

Continue reading

Review: O’Reilly Automotive

On July 5, 2017, O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) suffered a substantial decline in share price when the company reported that same store sales decline –1.7% as contrasted with consensus expectation of +3.90%.  Below we outline the downside targets and a Coppock Curve analysis.

Nasdaq 100 Watch List: June 2017

Performance Review

On June 21, 2016, we provided downside targets for WD-40 Co. (WDFC) based on the work of Edson Gould.  At the time, we said the following of the stock:

“The assumption by many momentum investors is that WDFC will continue to rise further.  However, prior experience suggests that a parabolic rises usually end in a breakdown in the price.”

Since the 2016 posting, three weeks later, WDFC managed to increased from $114 to $122 on a closing basis.  However, since the July 11, 2016 high, the price of WDFC has meandered as low as $110.  Considering that the stock is putting up so much resistance to decline after a clear parabolic peak, there may be more life in this stock than we thought.

From a standpoint of investment safety, WDFC would be an ideal consideration at or near the $72.49 conservative downside target as indicated in the chart below.

image