Downside Targets Continue reading
- Japan
- Market Indicator
- Price Momentum Indicators
- Richard Russell
- Silver
- Speed Resistance Lines
- U.S. Dividend Watch List
Category Archives: upside target
Bitcoin: December 2018
After twelve months, the extent of the euphoria and devastation has been wrought on the price of Bitcoin. Out of necessity, it is necessary to review what has happened since our January 17, 2018 posting (when Bitcoin was at $11,141) on the topic as this was the last assessment that was the most accurate, so far. In that posting, we said the following:
“Anyone willing to participate in Bitcoin should be willing to accept that the price could easily decline –70%, as has been the average of all previous Bitcoin busts (found here). Anyone who participates in anything other than Bitcoin should expect a minimum –90% to –99% decline if, at the same time, Bitcoin declines –70% or more.
“We see the current decline consistent with all prior crashes in Bitcoin and therefore see no reason to panic if you are out already. Alternatively, if you are currently in Bitcoins, you should be willing to accept that the price routinely declines to the levels mentioned above.”
Again, this was that last best assessment we had. After this posting, we’ve had others that can be found in our Bitcoin archive which have been mostly accurate and a couple that have been dead wrong. Below is the update on the topic of Bitcoin. Continue reading
Tilray: Review and Targets
On September 13, 2018, when Tilray (TLRY) was trading at $118.00, we offered downside targets for $118 and $236 price points. Unsurprisingly, TLRY closed at a price of $214 on September 19, 2018. At the time we said:
“The conservative downside target is fairly assured to occur in either case.”
The conservative downside target at $118 was $66.67 and at $236 was $102.92.
On September 25, 2018, when TLRY was trading at $114.00, after the stock traded as low as $99.50, we gave upside targets of $156.78, $176.26, and $195.16. Our closing commentary was as follows:
“Upside retests determine if the price of the stock will continue on the move beyond $214.06. This is where speculators make their money, on the prospects of an +86% increase.”
TLRY made it as high as $165.64 on a closing basis. The failure to achieve $176.26 target suggested that the downside targets from the closing price of $214.06 would be the extreme downside target of $78.67, as noted in the September 13, 2018 posting.
Currently, TLRY trades below $75. Although the extreme downside targets have been acheived, there are indications that TLRY will retest the pivot level at $34.
Downside Targets
The downside risk from the current price, is as follows:
-
$60.72
-
$47.36
-
$34.00
Simply by declining to $60.72, speculators should build in plans for TLRY to go to the $34.00 price point.
Posted in downside, TLRY, upside target
ShotSpotter Upside Resistance Levels
Review
On September 16, 2018, when ShotSpotter (SSTI) was trading at $62.81, we said the following:
“Based on the closing price of $62.81, we have the following downside targets:
$22.05”
The updated charting of the downside targets shows that SSTI managed to decline as low as the mid-range target of $28.55, as seen in the chart below.
We understand that the decline in the stock was merely coincidental. However, we do take some satisfaction in having a high level of coincidence with a surprising number of stocks that experience parabolic moves to the upside.
In the following assessment, we attempt to highlight the upside targets that most likely will experience resistance on the way back to the prior closing high of $63.12.
Upside Resistance Levels
Based on the decline from the peak at $63.12, SSTI has the following upside resistance levels:
-
$46.55
-
$52.18
-
$57.65
Our experience is that most investors are anticipating a retest of the previous peak as their investment goal. However, in order to get to that goal, the stock price must run the gauntlet of exceeding the indicated upside targets. Each of the levels indicated are critical resistance levels that should see a material decline in the stock price. Exceeding each level lends support to the stock price going to the next level.
A reassessment of the technicals is provided upon request if the stock exceeds $63.12.
Posted in SSTI, upside target
Bitcoin: What to watch
According to Coindesk.com, Bitcoin achieved a closing high of $3,018.55. This was +30% above our January 1, 2017 estimated upside target of $2,316.35, when Bitcoin was priced at $997.69. Now that Bitcoin has establish a new declining trend, we’ll provide our interpretation on the short-term moves in the price of Bitcoin and new upside/downside targets based on the $3,018.55 peak.
Posted in Bitcoin, downside, upside target
Baidu: Downside Targets
On April 27, 2013, we wrote a short piece on Baidu (BIDU) that concluded with the following remark:
“The conservative downside target of $93.43 has been achieved and we are now sitting at the extreme downside target of $54.79. All indications, based on the SRL, are that Baidu is worth considering in a two stage purchase plan, once at the current level and again at $67 or lower.”
The chart that we included for the above assessment was based on the work of Edson Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines (SRL) and is shown below.
Since that recommendation to buy at $85, Baidu had increased to as high as $251. What was not included at the time was the upside targets based on the work of Edson Gould. At that time, the upside targets were:
-
$140.16 (conservative target)
-
$210.23 (mid target)
-
$280.31 (extreme target)
Baidu was able to achieve two of the three upside targets that were indicated for the stock based on the interpretation of Gould’s work. With the Chinese stock market experiencing significant turmoil, Baidu has declined from the $251 level to the current price of $144 making a review of the technicals useful.
Baidu Downside Targets
Below is the updated Speed Resistance Lines based on the work of Edson Gould:
Posted in BIDU, downside, Edson Gould, speed resistance line, SRL, upside target
Commodity Index Review: Upside Targets
The Bloomberg Commodity Index has finally reached the extreme downside target of 79.26. Initially, we didn’t think that the index would fall to the extreme downside target as indicated in our October 29, 2013 posting. However, after declining below the long-term technical support level, we had to acknowledge what is now obvious.
Shanghai Composite Index: Upside Target
On August 26, 2015, the Shanghai Composite Index traded as low as 2,850.71. While the most recent rise may only be a bear market rally, we think that resistance to the rise might kick in around the 4,400 level. Rising above 4,4oo would suggest that a run to the previous peak of 5,166.35 is not out of the question. Keep in mind that a bull market in this index is not confirmed until the index exceeds the prior high, until that time the Shanghai Composite is in a bear market rally.
Upside Targets for Individual Gold Stocks
We’ve come to the time when we need to determine the upside targets for gold stocks. There are a few assumption that we’re making in this assessment. First, we believe that our Gold Stock Indicator is right about the direction of gold stocks, in general. Second, we’re assuming that from the current levels there is more downside risk. Third, we have excluded fundamental analysis (government printing, future earnings capacity, gold as money, etc.) from our assessment of the upside potential for individual gold stocks.
Posted in Edson Gould, gold, gold bugs, Gold Stock Indicator, HUI, Performance Review, speed resistance line, SRL, upside target, XAU
Tagged members
Nasdaq 100 Watch List: November 16, 2012
Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 10% of their respective 52-week lows. Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and rigorous due diligence.
| Symbol | Name | Price | P/E | EPS | Yield | P/B | % from low |
| BIDU | Baidu, Inc. | 92.68 | 20.97 | 4.42 | - | 8.87 | 0.95% |
| VOD | Vodafone Group | 25.27 | - | -0.55 | 7.9 | 1.11 | 1.28% |
| BBBY | Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. | 56.4 | 13.1 | 4.3 | - | 3.27 | 1.48% |
| MCHP | Microchip Technology Inc. | 29.37 | 27.94 | 1.05 | 4.8 | 2.93 | 1.56% |
| ^NDX | NASDAQ-100 | 2,534.16 | - | - | - | - | 1.59% |
| FLEX | Flextronics Int’l | 5.54 | 7.55 | 0.73 | - | 1.51 | 1.65% |
| DELL | Dell Inc. | 8.86 | 6.03 | 1.47 | 3.3 | 1.63 | 1.94% |
| AMAT | Applied Materials Inc. | 10.15 | 118.02 | 0.09 | 3.5 | 1.74 | 2.01% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 11.38 | 14.21 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 1.53 | 2.06% |
| INTC | Intel Corporation | 20.19 | 8.81 | 2.29 | 4.5 | 2.03 | 2.12% |
| ALTR | Altera Corp. | 30.45 | 17.02 | 1.79 | 1.3 | 2.97 | 2.91% |
| TEVA | Teva Pharmaceutical | 38.29 | 15.6 | 2.45 | 2.1 | 1.46 | 3.82% |
| EXPD | Expeditors Int'l of WA | 35.76 | 22.35 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 3.62 | 4.56% |
| CTXS | Citrix Systems, Inc. | 59.21 | 32.34 | 1.83 | - | 3.56 | 4.67% |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology | 7.4 | 12.67 | 0.58 | 3.2 | 0.88 | 4.96% |
| NUAN | Nuance Communications | 20.35 | 77.38 | 0.26 | - | 2.4 | 5.28% |
| KLAC | KLA-Tencor Corporation | 44.33 | 10.78 | 4.11 | 3.6 | 2.18 | 5.35% |
| APOL | Apollo Group Inc. | 19.51 | 5.61 | 3.48 | - | 2.37 | 5.69% |
| ATVI | Activision Blizzard, Inc. | 11.05 | 14.26 | 0.78 | 1.7 | 1.08 | 5.75% |
| MU | Micron Technology Inc. | 5.47 | - | -1.04 | - | 0.72 | 6.01% |
| FFIV | F5 Networks, Inc. | 86.64 | 25.11 | 3.45 | - | 5.19 | 6.87% |
| WCRX | Warner Chilcott plc | 11.98 | 8.2 | 1.46 | 4.2 | -4.48 | 6.87% |
| CHKP | Check Point Software | 43.67 | 15.21 | 2.87 | - | 2.71 | 7.56% |
| DLTR | Dollar Tree, Inc. | 38.82 | 15.6 | 2.49 | - | 5.9 | 7.71% |
| GRMN | Garmin Ltd. | 37.18 | 12.57 | 2.96 | 4.8 | 2.14 | 8.05% |
| XLNX | Xilinx Inc. | 32.56 | 17.6 | 1.85 | 2.7 | 3.12 | 8.53% |
| FAST | Fastenal Company | 41 | 29.71 | 1.38 | 2.1 | 7.29 | 9.01% |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | 26.52 | 14.34 | 1.85 | 3.5 | 3.26 | 9.14% |
Watch List Summary
In the November 2, 2012 Watch List summary we pointed out NetApp (NTAP) as a viable investment candidate. In the two weeks since, NTAP has managed to rise +9% while the Nasdaq 100 and Apple Inc. declined –4% and –9%, respectively. NTAP is sitting at $30.26 price and may have found some support at that level. Although we’re hopeful about the prospects of this company, we recommend putting +9% gains in two weeks into perspective and decide if selling the principle is the most prudent approach to take.
On the November 2, 2012, we discussed the prospects for Dell (DELL). At the time we felt that the stock had a high probability of going back to the $8 level. On Friday November 16, 2012, we believe that DELL has fallen through the last line of technical defense against going to the $8 level. We believe that on a short-term basis DELL will rise on a possible market reaction. However, the intermediate-term seems to indicate that DELL will go to $8 before any “true” indication of prospects is revealed, unless the company gets acquired which seems possible. Dell would be one of the best acquistion target of any computer manufacturer since Lenovo bought the personal computer division from IBM.
Apple Inc (AAPL) and short-term Dow Theory analysis
As described in our last Nasdaq 100 Watch List dated November 2, 2012, Apple Inc. (AAPL) is the stock to watch. Right now, there are many who are suggesting that the bottom is in for AAPL. For various reasons, we believe that the verdict has not been delivered on this stock. Especially since AAPL managed to close below the May 2012 low, a previous technical low point for the stock. Regardless of our view on the matter, we’d like to see what Dow Theory has to say about the upside prospects from the current price. The chart below outlines the four upside targets for AAPL.
Starting with the first upside target is the $572.19 level. This is an easily attainable level for the stock and would equal an +8.44% gain from the closing price of Friday November 16, 2012. After coming off of such a dramatic decline that was started on September 17th, we should expect this as the minimum reaction of a declining trend. There is little in the way to suggest that AAPL is clearly on the ascent when it reaches $572.19. However, in theory, this would be the easiest money every made in AAPL stock.
The next upside target for Apple Inc. (AAPL) is $605.41. This level is based on Dow’s 50% principle which indicates the average price paid by long-term investors and would be compelled to continue holding the stock if it rises above this level. If AAPL can manage to rise above this level then long-term investors are likely to hold their positions in the stock, leaving speculators to push the stock higher. However, failure to rise above the $605.41 level and falling below the $505 level will be confirmation that the trend of the stock is much lower than the $505 level.
The $638.63 price falls in line with Dow’s assertion that stocks then can retrace 1/3 to 5/8 of the previous move. In this case, the $638 level is 2/3 of the previous decline. Rising to such a level almost assures that the stock will rise to the previous high. However, those wishing to take advantage of such a “guaranteed” move to the upside should be aware of the risk that any gains that are achieved can be quickly taken away. This would be the hardest money ever made for any speculator in AAPL’s stock.
Finally, rising above the $705 level would be the only indication that the stock is going higher in a meaningful fashion. We believe that if AAPL manages to exceed prior high then there are great opportunities of other tech companies near a new 52-week low to take advantage of the renewed faith in Apple Inc.
Posted in 50% principle, Dow Theory, Nasdaq 100 Watch List, upside target
Tagged members