Below are the downside targets for Just Energy (JE.TO).
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Category Archives: JE.TO
Canadian Dividend Watch List: September 26, 2014
Performance Review
Below is the 1-year performance of the Canadian dividend stocks from our September 2013 watch list.
| symbol | Name | 2013 | 2014 | % change |
| TRP.TO | TransCanada Corp. | 45.72 | 58.14 | 27.17% |
| BEI-UN.TO | Boardwalk Real Estate Investment Trust | 56.76 | 68.21 | 20.17% |
| IFC.TO | Intact Financial Corporation | 61.19 | 72.27 | 18.11% |
| REF-UN.TO | Canadian REIT | 41.18 | 47.85 | 16.20% |
| CAR-UN.TO | Canadian Apartment Properties REIT | 20.44 | 23.41 | 14.53% |
| BDT.TO | Bird Construction | 12.37 | 13.98 | 13.02% |
| EMA.TO | Emera Inc. | 29.95 | 33.76 | 12.72% |
| LB.TO | Laurentian Bank of Canada | 44.98 | 49.56 | 10.18% |
| AX-UN.TO | Artis Real Estate Investment Trust | 14.03 | 15.33 | 9.27% |
| FTS.TO | Fortis Inc. | 31.46 | 34.12 | 8.46% |
| REI-UN.TO | Riocan Real Estate Investment Trust | 24.16 | 25.63 | 6.08% |
| CWT-UN.TO | Calloway REIT | 24.67 | 25.75 | 4.38% |
| FCR.TO | First Capital Realty Inc. | 17.00 | 17.55 | 3.24% |
| CUF-UN.TO | Cominar REIT | 19.09 | 18.93 | -0.84% |
| NWC.TO | The North West Company | 23.48 | 22.26 | -5.20% |
| D-UN.TO | Dundee REIT | 30.16 | 27.85 | -7.66% |
| TLM.TO | Talisman Energy Inc. | 11.38 | 9.93 | -12.74% |
| TA.TO | TransAlta Corp. | 13.69 | 11.79 | -13.88% |
| JE.TO | Just Energy Group | 6.50 | 5.28 | -18.77% |
| Average | 5.50% |
The performance of the September 2013 Watch List severely underperformed the Toronto Stock Exchange which gained +16.99%. A fascination of ours is the performance of a stock that we have covered here at NLO for a short period of time, Just Energy (JE.TO). On February 18, 2013, we said the following of Just Energy:
“On the technical front, Just Energy is fast approaching the 2009 low of $6.60 after breaking below the November 2012 low of $8.00. There appears to be tremendous technical support at the $6.00 level going all the way back to 2003. If you’re interested in this stock, consideration of purchases of Just Energy should be entered into in three phases, once at $6.60, $6.00 and $4.00. Naturally, breaking below $6.00 on the downside suggests that the floor’s the limit.”
Since February 18, 2013, JE.TO fell slightly below our $6.00 target and then took off to the $7.90 level. We recommended that investors consider selling the principal in JE.TO on July 31, 2013. In that July 2013 posting we also said:
“We are resigned to the possibility that $8.00 could be a technical resistance level. Additionally, the $6 support level has moved down to the March low of $5.89. No use getting fancy about exceptional gains as the dividend has already been cut -32% since our February posting (found here).”
As soon as JE.TO fell to the $6.00 level on August 17, 2013, we suggested that JE.TO was worth considering with the following commentary:
“Because JE.TO is trending lower, we recommend reassessing the stock when and if it declines to the $6.15 level. The dividend for JE.TO should not be a consideration for this stock as there are continued risks to the dividend going forward.”
As Just Energy has managed to achieve almost all of our upside and downside targets, we can only refer back to our comments from February 2013 regarding the support level at $4.00. Anyone still interested in this stock should be willing to accept the considerable downside risk. Additionally, the $6.00 level is the new resistance for the stock. If JE.TO were to fall well below the $4.00 level then that would become the new upside resistance. It would take exceptional news to propel the stock above the $6.00 level.
The top five stocks from our watch list last year had the following performance:
| symbol | Name | 2013 | 2014 | % change |
| CAR-UN.TO | Canadian Apartment Properties REIT | 20.44 | 23.41 | 14.53% |
| REI-UN.TO | Riocan Real Estate Investment Trust | 24.16 | 25.63 | 6.08% |
| CWT-UN.TO | Calloway REIT | 24.67 | 25.75 | 4.38% |
| FCR.TO | First Capital Realty Inc. | 17.00 | 17.55 | 3.24% |
| CUF-UN.TO | Cominar REIT | 19.09 | 18.93 | -0.84% |
For all of our concern about REITs, they managed to do better than we expected.
Canadian Dividend Watch List
Below is the Canadian Dividend Watch List for September 26, 2014:
Posted in Canadian Dividend Watch List, JE.TO
Canadian Stock Review: August 16, 2013
Performance Review
Below is the 1-year performance of the Canadian dividend stocks from our August 16, 2013 list.
| symbol | name | 2013 | 2014 | % change |
| CUF-UN.TO | Cominar REIT | 19.3 | 19.51 | 1.09% |
| BEI-UN.TO | Boardwalk REIT | 55.6 | 68.2 | 22.66% |
| CAR-UN.TO | Canadian Apt Properties REIT | 20.4 | 23.84 | 16.86% |
| EMA.TO | Emera Inc. | 31.3 | 34.61 | 10.58% |
| AX-UN.TO | Artis REIT | 13.8 | 15.88 | 15.07% |
| D-UN.TO | Dundee REIT | 29.6 | 28.95 | -2.20% |
| CWT-UN.TO | Calloway REIT | 24.9 | 26.25 | 5.42% |
| REI-UN.TO | Riocan REIT | 23.8 | 26.75 | 12.39% |
| FTS.TO | Fortis Inc. | 31.2 | 33.55 | 7.53% |
| FCR.TO | First Capital Realty Inc. | 17.2 | 18.95 | 10.17% |
| FTT.TO | Finning International Inc. | 22 | 32.83 | 49.23% |
| REF-UN.TO | Canadian REIT | 40.9 | 48.47 | 18.51% |
| BDT.TO | BIRD CONSTR INC | 11.9 | 15.15 | 27.31% |
| LB.TO | Laurentian Bank of Canada | 45.1 | 50.86 | 12.77% |
| TLM.TO | Talisman Energy Inc. | 11.3 | 11.32 | 0.18% |
| CM.TO | CIBC | 78.8 | 101.32 | 28.58% |
| JE.TO | JUST ENERGY GROUP INC | 6.34 | 6.37 | 0.47% |
| TRP.TO | TransCanada Corp. | 46.5 | 55.59 | 19.55% |
| NA.TO | National Bank Canadian | 39.15 | 48.84 | 24.75% |
| RBA.TO | Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers | 19.6 | 26.1 | 33.16% |
The entire list gained +15.70% as compared to the Toronto Stock Exchange Composite Index gain of +20.16%. The stock with the biggest gains in the last year was Finning International (FTT.TO) with a gain of +49.23%. The stock with the largest decline was Dundee (D-UN.TO), now known as Dream Office Real Estate Investment Trust, with a decline of –2.20%. At the time, we didn’t think much of the REIT sector and said so with the following commentary:
“…we are worried that the REIT sector may spiral downward as was the case in the rising interest rate environment of the early 1970’s.”
We were completely wrong in our assessment of the REIT sector as rising interest rates either never materialized or did not have the anticipated negative impact. The gains that were achieved by the REIT sector were exceptional in our view. As an example, Boardwalk REIT gained +22.66% in the last year for a total return of +26.22%.
Two stocks of interest to us were Just Energy (JE.TO) and Ritchie Brothers Auctioneers (RBA.TO). We said the following of Just Energy:
“Because JE.TO is trending lower, we recommend reassessing the stock when and if it declines to the $6.15 level. The dividend for JE.TO should not be a consideration for this stock as there are continued risks to the dividend going forward.”
After our August 16, 2013 posting, Just Energy’s stock price declined to $6.16 on August 19, 2013. Soon afterwards, Just Energy increased as high as $9.03 by March 19, 2014, a gain of +46.59%. so far, we’ve had tremendous luck with JE.TO rising and falling as anticipated (February 15, 2013 & July 31, 2013). We can’t be certain of the prospects going forward for Just Energy, however, those interested in the stock cannot rely on the dividend and should invest accordingly.
Regarding Ritchie Brothers Auctioneers (RBA.TO), we said the following:
“Another stock of interest on our watch list is Ritchie Brothers (RBA.TO). Although we’d like to provide original analysis each time we write our postings, we find that sometimes such a pursuit is completely unnecessary. RBA.TO completely fits the billing on this matter. On August 17, 2012 (found here), we said that RBA.TO had the pattern of falling to $18/$19 and then recovering to higher ground.”
As we had observed, RBA.TO fell to $18.90 and has since risen as much of +33.16%. At this point, selling the principal position in RBA.TO would be acceptable for the purpose of raising cash or acquiring alternative investments.
Our August 2014 Canadian Dividend Watch List can be found here.
Posted in Canadian Dividend Watch List, D-UN.TO, FTT.TO, JE.TO, RBA
Review: Just Energy Meets Resistance
On our February 18, 2013 Canadian Dividend Watch List, we reviewed the prospects for Just Energy (JE.TO) and said the following:
“On the technical front, Just Energy is fast approaching the 2009 low of $6.60 after breaking below the November 2012 low of $8.00. There appears to be tremendous technical support at the $6.00 level going all the way back to 2003. If you’re interested in this stock, consideration of purchases of Just Energy should be entered into in three phases, once at $6.60, $6.00 and $4.00.”
Since our February 18th posting, Just Energy has exhibited the following price movement:
For whatever reason, Just Energy adhered to the “tremendous technical support at the $6.00 level .” As we said, purchases at $6.60 and $6.00 would have resulted in a theoretical average purchase price of $6.30. Based on the current price, Just Energy has gained +17.01% on a total return basis (price appreciation and dividend payment) in a six month period and +34% on an annualized basis.
It is times like these that we recommend selling the principal in order to avoid watching exceptional annualized returns evaporate. We are resigned to the possibility that $8.00 could be a technical resistance level. Additionally, the $6 support level has moved down to the March low of $5.89. No use getting fancy about exceptional gains as the dividend has already been cut -32% since our February posting (found here).
Posted in JE.TO
Canadian Dividend Watch List: March 20, 2013
This is a list of Canadian dividend stocks that currently, or in the past, had a history of consecutive dividend increases. For those wishing to find the most complete fundamental information on these companies, we recommend visiting one of Canada’s leading financial websites, the Financial Post (found here). However, Yahoo!Finance probably has the better long-term charts and historical dividend data.