Category Archives: Analyst Estimate

Analyst Estimates: U.S. Dividend Watch List

Posted on October 9, 2016 by | Leave a comment

Below are the price projections based on analyst earnings estimates for our recent U.S. Dividend Watch List dated October 7, 2016. These estimates project the price change for the respective stocks over the next 12 months and the risk profiles associated with the estimates.

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Analyst Estimates: U.S. Dividend Watch List

Posted on September 28, 2016 by | Leave a comment

Below are the price projections based on analyst earnings estimates for our recent U.S. Dividend Watch List dated September 23, 2016. These estimates project the price change for the respective stocks over the next 12 months and the risk profiles associated with the estimates.

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Canadian Dividend Watch List: September 2016

Posted on September 16, 2016 by | Leave a comment

Performance Review

Below are the actual returns compared to the analyst estimates for the stocks from our Canadian Dividend Watch List dated September 2015.

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At the time, We said the following of the stocks on the list:

“CNQ.TO, SNC.TO and IMO.TO are expected by the analysts to suffer greatly in the coming year.  We think that the opposite will be true.  Analyst expectations for companies on the far right side of the above table will not come near the triple digit and above estimates.”

Based on the performance one year later, CNQ.TO, SNC.TO and IMO.TO averaged a gain of +26.60%.  The stocks slated to gain triple digits averaged a loss of –5.75%.  In the last year, the Toronto Stock Exchange has increased +5.84%.

Below is our watch list and analyst projections.

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Analyst Estimates: U.S. Dividend Watch List

Posted on September 11, 2016 by | Leave a comment

Below are the price projections based on analyst earnings estimates for our recent U.S. Dividend Watch List dated September 9, 2016. These estimates project the price change for the respective stocks over the next 12 months and the risk profiles associated with the estimates.

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Nasdaq 100 Watch List: May 2016

Posted on May 31, 2016 by | Leave a comment

Performance Review

Below is the one year performance of the stock on our watch list from May 8, 2015:

symbol Name 2015 2016 % chg
GRMN Garmin Ltd. 45.94 42.25 -8.03%
FOSL Fossil Group, Inc. 79.62 27.83 -65.05%
KLAC KLA-Tencor Corporation 59.8 72.7 21.57%
FOXA Twenty-First Century Fox 32.79 28.85 -12.02%
NWSA News Corporation 15.14 11.93 -21.20%
AMAT Applied Materials, Inc. 19.69 24.28 23.31%
NTAP NetApp, Inc. 35.65 25.45 -28.61%
SNDK SanDisk Corp. 67.72 76.18 12.49%
MU Micron Technology, Inc. 27.18 12.63 -53.53%
FAST Fastenal Company 42.72 45.99 7.65%
ALXN Alexion Pharmaceuticals 163.02 151.12 -7.30%
WYNN Wynn Resorts Ltd. 117.84 96.81 -17.85%
DTV DIRECTV 89.38 93.55 4.67%
DISCA Discovery Communications 31.33 27.88 -11.01%

The performance of the Watch List from last year averaged a loss of –11.06% which was well below the Nasdaq 100 Index change of +1.71% over the same period of time. The stock that gained the most was Applied Material (AMAT) while the stock that declined the most was Fossil Group (FOSL) with a loss of –65.05%.

Analysts were able to accurately forecast the general direction of 71%  of the watch list stocks, a fairly high level of success not normally seen.

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Insurance Watch List: April 2016

Posted on April 17, 2016 by | Leave a comment

Below is the Watch List and Analyst Estimates for insurance stocks.

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Insurance Watch List: March 2016

Posted on March 20, 2016 by | Leave a comment

Below is the Insurance Watch List which includes the analyst estimates of price change in the next 12 months.

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Analyst Estimates: U.S. Dividend Watch List

Posted on March 10, 2016 by | Leave a comment

Below are the price projections based on analyst earnings estimates for our recent U.S. Dividend Watch List dated March 4, 2016. These estimates project the price change for the respective stocks over the next 12 months and the risk profiles associated with the estimates.

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Nasdaq 100 Watch List: February 26, 2016

Posted on February 28, 2016 by | Leave a comment

Performance Review

Below is the percentage change in the stocks that appeared on our February 22, 2015 watch list:

symbol name 2015 2016 % chg
GRMN Garmin Ltd. 49.42 40.4 -18.25%
MAT Mattel, Inc. 25.77 32.47 26.00%
NUAN Nuance Communications, Inc. 14.02 19.59 39.73%
FAST Fastenal Company 42.76 45.22 5.75%
FOSL Fossil Group, Inc. 85.14 47.04 -44.75%
DISCA Discovery Communications, Inc. 30.93 25.08 -18.91%
KLAC KLA-Tencor Corporation 64.97 67.97 4.62%

The average performance of the entire watch list was –0.83% while the Nasdaq 100 index declined –4.81%.  A stock that we had some interest in was Garmin (GRMN).  In our commentary we said the following:

“There is no hard and fast rule for what has occurred in a generally rising market.  However, it is well worth the time to examine the investment merit of GRMN when the stock has fallen –29% or more.”

In the case of Garmin, falling –29% from the prior peak would have meant that the stock would at $43.80 or lower.  GRMN did not achieve this until early July 2015.  Since that time, GRMN has fallen an additional –31%.  At the current time, GRMN has not achieved the breakeven level of $43.80.

Watch List and Analyst Estimates

Below is the latest Nasdaq 100 Watch List for February 2016.

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Posted in Analyst Estimate, grmn, KLAC, MAT, Mattel, Nasdaq 100 Watch List

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Canadian Dividend Watch List: February 2016

Posted on February 17, 2016 by | Leave a comment

Performance Review

On February 18, 2015, we generated the following list of stocks for consideration with their respective performance one year later:

Symbol Name 2015 2016 % chg
BEI-UN.TO Boardwalk REIT 60.69 42.00 -30.80%
IGM.TO IGM Financial Inc. 44.68 33.61 -24.78%
ACO-X.TO ATCO LTD., CL.I, NV 46.76 37.90 -18.95%
CJR-B.TO Corus Entertainment Inc. 21.73 9.32 -57.11%
CM.TO CIBC 95.39 89.01 -6.69%
REF-UN.TO Canadian REIT 47.05 39.90 -15.20%
RY.TO Royal Bank of Canada 77.70 69.41 -10.67%
HCG.TO Home Capital Group Inc. 43.30 29.86 -31.04%

There was little surprise in the performance of the stocks on the watch list.  As a group (equally weighted) the average change was –24.40% compared to the Toronto Stock Exchange decline of –17.49%.

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The analysts were off target for their 1-year projections.  Only Canadian REIT (REF-UN.TO) and Boardwalk REIT (BEI-UN.TO) came close (somewhat) to the analyst targets.

A stock of particular interest to us was Home Capital Group (HCG.TO).  At the time we said the following of HCG.TO:

“Applying Speed Resistance Lines to HCG.TO, we see that the stock has already declined to the conservative downside target of $37.92.  Because it appears that we are in the early stages of the economic decline in Canada, HCG.TO might be worth watching to see if the stock can decline to the $28.21 level.  The extreme downside target is $18.51 which confirms the Altimeter low of $20.80.  HCG.TO should be considered in three stages starting below the ascending $37.92, $28.21 and $18.51 levels.”

Not surprisingly, HCG.TO declined as low as 23.16 on January 15, 2016.  This has set the stage for our latest risk assessment (as noted below).

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Analyst Estimates: U.S. Dividend Watch List

Posted on February 15, 2016 by | 3 comments

Below are the price projections based on analyst earnings estimates for on our recent U.S. Dividend Watch List dated February 12, 2016. These estimates project the price change for the respective stocks over the next 12 months.

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Nasdaq 100 Watch List: January 29, 2016

Posted on January 30, 2016 by | Leave a comment

Performance Review

This is a review of the 1-year performance of the watch list from January 23, 2015.

symbol Name 2015 2016 1-yr % chg
FOSL Fossil Group, Inc. $99.37 $32.60 -67.19%
WYNN Wynn Resorts Ltd. $146.01 $67.34 -53.88%
QCOM QUALCOMM Inc $72.18 $45.34 -37.18%
NWSA News Corporation $15.18 $12.97 -14.56%
DISCA Discovery Comm. $29.84 $27.59 -7.54%
TRIP TripAdvisor Inc. $69.77 $66.76 -4.31%
MAT Mattel, Inc. $28.04 $27.59 -1.60%
PCLN The Priceline Group Inc. $1,037.99 $1,064.97 2.60%
KLAC KLA-Tencor Corp. $65.24 $66.99 2.68%
NUAN Nuance Comm. $13.80 $17.63 27.75%
XLNX Xilinx Inc. $39.28 $50.27 27.98%
FSLR First Solar, Inc. $42.54 $68.66 61.40%

The average performance of an equal-weighted investment of all the above companies was –5.32% compared to a gain of +0.02% for the Nasdaq 100 Index.  The following is a graphical representation of the performance of analyst estimates contrasted with the two methods presented last year.

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Analyst estimates were on target for Wynn (WYNN), News Corp. (NWSA), Priceline (PCLN) and First Solar (FSLR). Priceline was a stock that we had an interest in at the time.  Overall, PCLN did not change much one year later, however, that does not mean the stock didn’t move throughout the year.  PCLN attained a new all-time high before falling back to the same level as last year.  This should be an interesting stock to watch going forward.  We have added an updated Speed Resistance Line chart below.

Watch List & Analyst Estimates

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Canadian Dividend Watch List: November 2015

Posted on November 17, 2015 by | Leave a comment

Performance Review

Below is the performance of the stocks that were on our Canadian Dividend Watch List from November 2014 with the analysts estimated 1-year price change:

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The analyst estimates were accurate with TA.TO, CPG.TO, CUF-UN.TO , NWC.TO, RCI-B.TO and BDT.TO.  However, the remainder of the list fell short of analyst expectations.  Our typical stance is that investors should first consider the stocks that are anticipated by analysts to perform the worst over the coming year.  That would not have served investors well as a majority of the stocks were exceptional underperformers in the last year.

An equal weighted purchase of all the stocks on the watch list lost –15.21% compared to the Toronto Stock Exchange decline of –10.52% over the same time frame.

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Analyst Estimates: U.S. Dividend Watch List

Posted on November 10, 2015 by | Leave a comment

Below are the price projections based on analyst earnings estimates for on our recent U.S. Dividend Watch List dated November 6, 2015. These estimates project the price change for the respective stocks over the next 12 months.

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Insurance Watch List: October 30, 2015

Posted on October 31, 2015 by | Leave a comment

Performance Review

Below is the Insurance Watch List from November 6, 2012 and the subsequent performance. The stocks are listed in the order that they were on the watch list.

Symbol Name 2012 2015 % chg
TWGP Tower Group Inc. 17.68 2.5 -85.86%
PKIN Pekin Life Insurance Company 10.8 12.4 14.81%
ASI American Safety Insurance Holdings Ltd. 17.22 30.25 75.67%
FRFHF Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited 372.45 496.5 33.31%
NSEC National Security Group Inc. 8.15 13.5 65.64%
GTS Triple-S Management Corporation 17.72 20.59 16.20%
THG The Hanover Insurance Group Inc. 35.61 84.25 136.59%
OB OneBeacon Insurance Group, Ltd. 13.01 14.39 10.61%
CRVL CorVel Corporation 42.74 33.2 -22.32%
MHLD Maiden Holdings, Ltd. 8.54 15.55 82.08%
ERIE Erie Indemnity Company 66.3 87.46 31.92%
MIG Meadowbrook Insurance Group Inc. 5.72 8.65 51.22%
TDHOY T&D Holdings, Inc. 5.31 6.55 23.35%
WSH Willis Group Holdings Public Limited Company 34.87 44.61 27.93%

The entire watch list gained an average of +32% which is 30% less than the iShares US Insurance ETF (IAK) in the same period of time.  At the time, we had a strong interest in two stocks, The Hanover Insurance Group (THG) and Maiden Holdings (MHLD).  Our general assessment of both stocks was fairly accurate as THG has the top performance at +136% and MHLD was the second in performance at +82.08%.

At the time, we thought that MHLD was undervalued compared to AmTrust Financial Services (AFSI).  We did a side-by-side comparison of the fundamentals to justify our view on both stocks.  Below is the comparative performance:

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AFSI (in red) gained +181% compared to MHLD’s gain of ~82-85%.  As far was we can tell, MHLD is tracking closely to the performance of AFSI but by a dramatically lower magnitude.

The third ranked stock, in terms of performance, was American Safety Insurance Holdings (ASI) with a gain of +75% which was acquired by Fairfax Financial Holdings (FRFHF), considered to be the Berkshire Hathaway of Canada.

Technical Overview

So far, it appears that the iShares US Insurance ETF (IAK) is about to put in a double top or break through to a brand new high since the low of 2009.  The chart below has applied support levels based on the work of Charles H. Dow, co-founder of the Wall Street Journal.  The ascending $39.86 level has been a support only once in late October 2011.  Since that time, IAK has kept a considerable distance from the $39.86 “support” level.  It would take a –23.84% decline to achieve the  $39.86 level and a fall of –36.83% to get to the Dow Theory fair value level of $33.06.

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Insurance Watch List

Below is the Insurance Watch List for October 30, 2015 and the analyst estimates for the respective stocks in the coming year.

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Posted in Analyst Estimate, ASI, Insurance Watch List, MHLD, THG

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