The following are the Nasdaq 100 members that are within 20% of the 52-week low:
| Symbol |
Name |
Price |
P/E |
% Yr Low |
Yield |
EPS |
Div/Shr |
Payout Ratio |
| THFF |
First Financial Corporation |
27.23 |
14.80 |
1.91% |
3.31% |
1.84 |
0.90 |
49% |
| WTR |
AQUA AMERICA INC |
15.84 |
20.84 |
2.92% |
3.66% |
0.76 |
0.58 |
76% |
| SHEN |
Shenandoah Telecom |
16.88 |
27.23 |
4.84% |
1.90% |
0.62 |
0.32 |
52% |
| CWT |
CALIFORNIA WATER SVC |
35.28 |
17.82 |
5.34% |
3.34% |
1.98 |
1.18 |
60% |
| PNY |
PIEDMONT NAT GAS CO |
22.86 |
14.75 |
10.54% |
4.72% |
1.55 |
1.08 |
70% |
| WGL |
WGL HOLDINGS INC |
31.89 |
13.34 |
11.54% |
4.61% |
2.39 |
1.47 |
62% |
| WEYS |
Weyco Group, Inc. |
22.48 |
22.48 |
11.79% |
2.67% |
1.00 |
0.60 |
60% |
| UGI |
U G I CP |
23.64 |
9.81 |
11.83% |
3.38% |
2.41 |
0.80 |
33% |
| NWN |
NORTHWEST NAT GAS |
42.86 |
14.83 |
13.66% |
3.87% |
2.89 |
1.66 |
57% |
| UMBF |
UMB Financial Corporation |
38.28 |
18.23 |
13.76% |
1.93% |
2.10 |
0.74 |
35% |
| WMT |
WAL MART STORES |
53.20 |
15.60 |
15.03% |
2.05% |
3.41 |
1.09 |
32% |
| MON |
MONSANTO COMPANY |
73.58 |
19.36 |
15.93% |
1.44% |
3.80 |
1.06 |
28% |
| NJR |
N J RESOURCES CP |
34.99 |
13.30 |
16.83% |
3.54% |
2.63 |
1.24 |
47% |
| BCR |
BARD C R INC |
80.76 |
16.18 |
17.15% |
0.84% |
4.99 |
0.68 |
14% |
| XOM |
EXXON MOBIL CP |
72.47 |
16.89 |
17.15% |
2.32% |
4.29 |
1.68 |
39% |
| AWR |
AMER ST WATER |
32.33 |
23.95 |
17.31% |
3.22% |
1.35 |
1.04 |
77% |
| RLI |
R L I CP |
50.60 |
15.86 |
19.03% |
2.13% |
3.19 |
1.08 |
34% |
| HGIC |
Harleysville Group Inc. |
31.21 |
13.11 |
19.62% |
4.17% |
2.38 |
1.30 |
55% |
| SYBT |
S.Y. Bancorp, Inc. |
21.90 |
16.22 |
19.74% |
3.11% |
1.35 |
0.68 |
50% |
| 19 Companies | ||||||||
Comments Off on Dividend Achiever Watch List,
Posted in Dividend Achiever Watch List
The following are the Nasdaq 100 members that are within 20% of the 52-week low:
It is interesting to note the percentage change that has occurred in last week's Nasdaq 100 watch list. Last week's list had the following one week percentage change:
The biotech/pharma sector is moving higher. As we've stated before, these companies are very undervalued at the present time. Do your research and carefully consider the opportunities. Touc.
| Symbol | Name | Price | P/E | % Yr Low | Yield | EPS | Div/Shr | Payout Ratio |
| WTR | AQUA AMERICA INC | 16.16 | 20.72 | 5.00% | 3.59% | 0.78 | 0.58 | 74% |
| CWT | CALIFORNIA WATER | 36.32 | 18.34 | 8.45% | 3.25% | 1.98 | 1.18 | 60% |
| MON | MONSANTO COMPANY | 69.14 | 18.19 | 8.93% | 1.53% | 3.80 | 1.06 | 28% |
| WMT | WAL MART STORES | 51.25 | 15.03 | 10.81% | 2.13% | 3.41 | 1.09 | 32% |
| PNY | PIEDMONT NAT GAS | 22.94 | 14.80 | 10.93% | 4.71% | 1.55 | 1.08 | 70% |
| WEYS | Weyco Group, Inc. | 22.63 | 20.95 | 12.53% | 2.65% | 1.08 | 0.60 | 56% |
| BCR | BARD C R INC | 78.39 | 15.71 | 13.71% | 0.87% | 4.99 | 0.68 | 14% |
| UGI | U G I CP | 24.14 | 10.02 | 14.19% | 3.31% | 2.41 | 0.80 | 33% |
| NWN | NORTHWEST NAT GAS | 43.09 | 15.61 | 14.27% | 3.85% | 2.76 | 1.66 | 60% |
| WGL | WGL HOLDINGS INC | 33.23 | 13.90 | 16.23% | 4.42% | 2.39 | 1.47 | 62% |
| XOM | EXXON MOBIL CP | 72.58 | 16.92 | 17.33% | 2.31% | 4.29 | 1.68 | 39% |
| CAH | CARDINAL HEALTH | 29.50 | 9.25 | 18.62% | 2.37% | 3.19 | 0.70 | 22% |
| NJR | N J RESOURCES CP | 35.59 | 13.53 | 18.83% | 3.48% | 2.63 | 1.24 | 47% |
| RLI | R L I CP | 50.60 | 15.86 | 19.03% | 2.13% | 3.19 | 1.08 | 34% |
| FPL | F P L GROUP INC | 49.76 | 12.05 | 19.96% | 3.80% | 4.13 | 1.89 | 46% |
| PGN | PROGRESS ENERGY | 37.62 | 14.53 | 20.00% | 6.59% | 2.59 | 2.48 | 96% |
| T | AT&T INC. | 25.93 | 12.87 | 20.94% | 6.32% | 2.02 | 1.64 | 81% |
| 17 Companies | ||||||||
Something to note, I've taken Shenandoah Telecom (SHEN) out because of an annual dividend payment. I feel that it offer less cushion for myself. I replaced this company with Monsanto (MON) which appear to be on its way to becoming part of the Dividend Achiever. Take a look at this report for more on MON.
Comments Off on Dividend Achiever Watch List
Posted in Dividend Achiever Watch List
Based on the 30 year rate, WTR is selling 19.91% below the historical mean value. I chose the $19.29 value since it was the most conservative figure.
However, according to Investment Quality Trends, WTR is considered undervalued when it is selling for $12.27 or less. This indicates that WTR is not currently undervalued but could easily get to the $12.50 range if market conditions continue on the downside. Additionally, WTR has a large debt low and a high dividend payout ratio of 74%. This means that the stock could only "afford" a decline in earnings of 25% before the company has to borrow or issue more share to service the dividend.
According to Dow Theory, the following are the most important downside targets to watch for:
These targets are supposed to act as support levels. Support levels are points which the stock falls to but should not go below. If the stock goes below one support level then we should expect the stock to decline to the next target level.
One support level that is significant is the $15 level. This happens to be the most obvious level that the stock needs to hold above. Falling below $15 could indicate the negative nature of the markets.
Although this is a water utility and water is critical to life, investors need to understand that companies in this industry aren't a "sure thing." The biggest reason for this is that when, and if, water becomes scarce, government regulators will step in to take over (nationalize) what should otherwise be sold at the most profitable price (thereby curbing wasteful consumption.) There is literally an upside cap on profitability to a company like this due to the critical importance of the resource being sold.
Take your time to consider this Dividend Achiever for the good and the bad attributes. Your careful analysis of this company might compel you to purchase the stock. It is my hope that the stock falls further before your next acquisition. Touc.
Related Articles:
Comments Off on Investment Observation: Aqua America (WTR)
Posted in Aqua America, investment observation, WTR
Although Monsanto (MON) isn't a Dividend Achiever or a member of the Nasdaq 100, the company has a solid history and provides investors with an exceptional opportunity.
MON is currently trading within 5.85% of the the 52-week low. What is significant about the low that MON is approaching is that it is close to the November 2008 low. This is a critical support level for the stock which could indicate that a major reversal is ahead.
According to Dow Theory, MON is projected to decline to the following levels:
According to Value Investment Survey dated August 2009, MON typically reverts to a level of 17 times cashflow. Full year 2008 cash flow was $4.50 per share. This equals a price of $76.50 that the shares should revert to at some point in the future. Value Line seems to believe that, for 2009, MON should achieve cash flow of $5.55 per share which implies a mean price of $94.35. I would opt for the lower price just to play it safe. In the period from 1981 to 1996, Value Line had a smaller mean price to cash flow (13x). This means that as time has gone on since 81' to 96' MON has managed to improve their price to cash flow figures.
With MON trading at 11% below the historical mean value, as well as being within 6% of the low, this is a good opportunity to get your research in as the share price declines. Focus on the downside risk and good luck. Touc.
Follow-up article:
The following are the Nasdaq 100 members that are within 20% of the 52-week low:
The fact that all of these companies (except for APOL) are within the drug industry does not surprise me. The continued undervaluation of these companies makes them prime targets for acquisition by investors and larger drug companies. Touc.
| Symbol | Name | Price | P/E | % Yr Low | Yield | EPS | Div/Shr | Payout Ratio |
| WTR | AQUA AMERICA INC | 15.45 | 19.81 | 0.00% | 3.75% | 0.78 | 0.58 | 74% |
| SHEN | Shenandoah Telecom | 16.69 | 26.49 | 0.91% | 1.92% | 0.63 | 0.32 | 51% |
| WMT | WAL MART STORES | 49.68 | 14.57 | 7.42% | 2.19% | 3.41 | 1.09 | 32% |
| BCR | BARD C R INC | 75.07 | 15.04 | 8.89% | 0.91% | 4.99 | 0.68 | 14% |
| CWT | CALIFORNIA WATER SVC | 36.57 | 17.33 | 9.20% | 3.23% | 2.11 | 1.18 | 56% |
| NWN | NORTHWEST NAT GAS | 41.81 | 15.15 | 10.87% | 3.97% | 2.76 | 1.66 | 60% |
| WEYS | Weyco Group, Inc. | 22.30 | 20.65 | 10.89% | 2.69% | 1.08 | 0.60 | 56% |
| PNY | PIEDMONT NAT GAS CO | 23.28 | 15.02 | 12.57% | 4.64% | 1.55 | 1.08 | 70% |
| UGI | U G I CP | 23.88 | 9.91 | 12.96% | 3.35% | 2.41 | 0.80 | 33% |
| CAH | CARDINAL HEALTH INC | 28.34 | 8.88 | 13.95% | 2.47% | 3.19 | 0.70 | 22% |
| WGL | WGL HOLDINGS INC | 33.06 | 13.83 | 15.63% | 4.45% | 2.39 | 1.47 | 62% |
| XOM | EXXON MOBIL CP | 71.67 | 11.50 | 15.86% | 2.34% | 6.23 | 1.68 | 27% |
| MCD | MCDONALDS CP | 58.61 | 15.14 | 16.20% | 3.75% | 3.87 | 2.20 | 57% |
| NJR | N J RESOURCES CP | 35.20 | 13.38 | 17.53% | 3.52% | 2.63 | 1.24 | 47% |
| BDX | BECTON DICKINSON CO | 68.36 | 14.18 | 17.58% | 1.93% | 4.82 | 1.32 | 27% |
| FPL | F P L GROUP INC | 49.10 | 10.37 | 18.37% | 3.85% | 4.74 | 1.89 | 40% |
| SJW | S J W CP | 21.77 | 23.92 | 19.48% | 3.03% | 0.91 | 0.66 | 73% |
| PGN | PROGRESS ENERGY INC | 37.53 | 13.08 | 19.71% | 6.61% | 2.87 | 2.48 | 86% |
| T | AT&T INC. | 25.67 | 12.71 | 19.73% | 6.39% | 2.02 | 1.64 | 81% |
| AWR | AMER ST WATER | 33.15 | 24.56 | 20.28% | 3.02% | 1.35 | 1.00 | 74% |
| 21 Companies | ||||||||
Comments Off on Dividend Achiever Watch List
Posted in Dividend Achiever Watch List
Nasdaq 100 Watch List (Yahoo!Quote Summary View):
Below is the Coppock Curve for Gilead Sciences (GILD). The Coppock Curve is intended to provided the best risk-adjusted buy signal. If you review the price of the stock and have a short time frame, the buy signals were, at times, alarmingly accurate.
Using Yahoo!Finance's long term chart for GILD, we see the following prices for the above buy signals:
The fact that the stock trades below the July buy signal bodes well for those willing to investigate the qualitative elements of GILD. Touc.
Disclosure: Long CEPH
Comments Off on Nasdaq 100 Watch List
Posted in Nasdaq 100 Watch List
| Symbol | Name | Price | P/E | % Yr Low | Yield | EPS | Div/Shr | Payout Ratio |
| SHEN | Shenandoah Telecom | 16.81 | 26.68 | 1.63% | 1.90% | 0.63 | 0.32 | 51% |
| WMT | WAL MART STORES | 50.44 | 14.79 | 9.06% | 2.16% | 3.41 | 1.09 | 32% |
| BCR | BARD C R INC | 76.74 | 16.09 | 11.31% | 0.89% | 4.77 | 0.68 | 14% |
| WEYS | Weyco Group, Inc. | 22.44 | 20.78 | 11.59% | 2.67% | 1.08 | 0.60 | 56% |
| WTR | AQUA AMERICA INC | 15.89 | 20.37 | 13.50% | 3.65% | 0.78 | 0.58 | 74% |
| NWN | NORTHWEST NAT GAS | 43.02 | 15.59 | 14.08% | 3.86% | 2.76 | 1.66 | 60% |
| PNY | PIEDMONT NAT GAS |
23.72 | 15.30 | 14.70% | 4.55% | 1.55 | 1.08 | 70% |
| CAH | CARDINAL HEALTH |
28.66 | 8.98 | 15.24% | 2.44% | 3.19 | 0.70 | 22% |
| BDX | BECTON DICKINSON |
67.50 | 14.00 | 16.10% | 1.96% | 4.82 | 1.32 | 27% |
| MCD | MCDONALDS CP | 59.43 | 15.76 | 17.82% | 3.70% | 3.77 | 2.20 | 58% |
| XOM | EXXON MOBIL CP | 73.57 | 11.80 | 18.93% | 2.28% | 6.23 | 1.68 | 27% |
| T | AT&T INC. | 25.73 | 12.74 | 20.01% | 6.37% | 2.02 | 1.64 | 81% |
| PGN | PROGRESS ENERGY |
37.68 | 13.13 | 20.19% | 6.58% | 2.87 | 2.48 | 86% |
| RLI | R L I CP | 51.11 | 23.66 | 20.23% | 2.11% | 2.16 | 1.08 | 50% |
| NJR | N J RESOURCES CP | 36.02 | 13.70 | 20.27% | 3.44% | 2.63 | 1.24 | 47% |
15 Companies
Comments Off on Dividend Achiever Watch List
Posted in Dividend Achiever Watch List
Disclosure: None
Follow-up Article:
Comments Off on Speculation Observations: Mattson Technology (MTSN) at $2.65
Posted in Art, Mattson Technology, MTSN, speculation
Cephalon (CEPH), according to Valueline, normally trades at 12 times cashflow. The cashflow for CEPH in 2007 was $5.41 per share (Mergent’s, was $5.78 for 2007.) Using the smaller figure, we get a price of $64.92 as the average price that the stock has typically reverted to. As the number of shares for CEPH have increased by 11% since 2007, I have adjusted lower the cash flow per share by 11% as a rough gauge of what the historical average price would be at 12x cash flow. The figure that I come up with is $57.72. This is 5.71% above the current price of $54.42. Valueline sees the negative cashflow figures persisting until the foreseeable future. (I have intentionally left out the negative cashflow figures for 2008 because the economy was in recession for the whole year.)
Gilead Sciences (GILD), according to Valueline, should be trading at 20x cashflow. With a cashflow of $2.32 in 2008, GILD averages a price of $46.40. Although Mergent’s has a cashflow figure that is higher, I will go with the most conservative figure that I can find. At the current price of $46.17, GILD is trading at the historical cashflow. Maybe this is a fading star but GILD has never traded below 20x cashflow for an extend period of time.
Based on 2008 cashflow figures from Valueline, Stericycle (SRCL) would trade around the $38.18 range. The 2008 cashflow for SRCL was $2.19 per share. This is significantly above the mean, which makes these share less inviting even though they are within 18% of the 52-week low.
Finally we have Genzyme Corp. (GENZ) at $55.94. This stock has historically traded at 19 times cashflow. The 2008 cashflow for this GENZ was $2.82, according to Mergent’s (Valueline had the higher figure.) GENZ, although selling 19% above the 52-week low, is a far superior value proposition. The shares outstanding have grown by 2.7% from 2006 to 2008 while the long-term debt has fallen by 85% over the same time frame.
Additional analysis will be provided on these companies as long as they stay within 20% of the 1-year low. Touc.
Disclosure: Long CEPH
Comments Off on Nasdaq 100 Watch List
Posted in CEPH, GENZ, GILD, Nasdaq 100 Watch List, SRCL
| Symbol |
Name |
Price |
P/E |
% Yr Low |
Yield |
EPS |
Div/Shr |
Payout Ratio |
| SHEN |
Shenandoah Telecom |
16.81 |
26.68 |
1.63% |
1.78% |
0.63 |
0.30 |
48% |
| BCR |
BARD C R INC |
76.19 |
15.98 |
10.52% |
0.89% |
4.77 |
0.68 |
14% |
| WMT |
WAL MART STORES |
51.22 |
15.02 |
10.75% |
2.13% |
3.41 |
1.09 |
32% |
| WEYS |
Weyco Group, Inc. |
22.40 |
20.74 |
11.39% |
2.68% |
1.08 |
0.60 |
56% |
| NWN |
NORTHWEST NAT GAS |
43.39 |
15.72 |
15.06% |
3.83% |
2.76 |
1.66 |
60% |
| CAH |
CARDINAL HEALTH |
28.68 |
8.99 |
15.32% |
2.44% |
3.19 |
0.70 |
22% |
| MCD |
MCDONALDS CP |
58.78 |
15.58 |
16.53% |
3.74% |
3.77 |
2.20 |
58% |
| PNY |
PIEDMONT NAT GAS CO |
24.19 |
15.61 |
16.97% |
4.46% |
1.55 |
1.08 |
70% |
| WTR |
AQUA AMERICA INC |
16.65 |
21.35 |
18.93% |
3.48% |
0.78 |
0.58 |
74% |
| BDX |
BECTON DICKINSON CO |
69.26 |
14.37 |
19.13% |
1.91% |
4.82 |
1.32 |
27% |
| T |
AT&T INC. |
25.70 |
12.72 |
19.87% |
6.38% |
2.02 |
1.64 |
81% |
| 11 Companies | ||||||||
Comments Off on Dividend Achiever Watch List
Posted in Dividend Achiever Watch List
| Symbol |
Name |
Price |
P/E |
% Yr Low |
Yield |
EPS (ttm) |
Div/Shr |
Payout Ratio |
| WMT |
WAL MART STORES |
49.97 |
14.65 |
8.04% |
2.18% |
3.41 |
1.09 |
32% |
| CAH |
CARDINAL HEALTH INC |
27.32 |
8.56 |
9.85% |
2.56% |
3.19 |
0.70 |
22% |
| WEYS |
Weyco Group, Inc. |
22.65 |
20.97 |
12.63% |
2.65% |
1.08 |
0.60 |
56% |
| BCR |
BARD C R INC |
77.94 |
16.35 |
13.05% |
0.87% |
4.77 |
0.68 |
14% |
| PNY |
PIEDMONT NAT GAS CO |
23.73 |
15.31 |
15.64% |
4.55% |
1.55 |
1.08 |
70% |
| NWN |
NORTHWEST NAT GAS |
42.43 |
15.37 |
15.90% |
3.91% |
2.76 |
1.66 |
60% |
| BDX |
BECTON DICKINSON CO |
68.75 |
14.27 |
18.25% |
1.92% |
4.82 |
1.32 |
27% |
| PGN |
PROGRESS ENERGY INC |
37.45 |
13.05 |
19.46% |
6.62% |
2.87 |
2.48 |
86% |
| MKC |
MCCORMICK & CO |
33.67 |
16.75 |
19.91% |
2.85% |
2.01 |
0.96 |
48% |
| 9 companies |
Note: Abbott Lab (ABT) is no longer on this list after being on it since this list began in June. I flagged you to ABT on 9/24/09 and the stock has gained 8.5% since.
Comments Off on Dividend Achiever Watch List
Posted in Dividend Achiever Watch List
For the reasons above, we highly recommend that you re-consider the article written on August 27th. With a $4 billion market cap, this stock should be among your choices of new speculative opportunities. Art and Touc.
Comments Off on A Second Look at Cephalon Inc. (CEPH)
Posted in CEPH, Cephalon Inc., speculation