Below are the valuation targets for Morinaga & Co. (2201) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
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Author Archives: nlo-admin
Stryker Corp. 10-Year Targets
On January 3, 2019, we said the following of Stryker Corp.:
“According to Value Line Investment Survey, Stryker Corp. (SYK) has an expected price range of $200-$245 by 2021-2023. On our end, we have a range from as low as $126.96 to as high as $266.52 in the same period of time.”
On March 23, 2020, Stryker decline as low as $126.05 and closed at $126.50 as seen in the chart below.
Below are the valuation targets for Stryker Corp. (SYK) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
1937-1939: The Years of Investing Dangerously
After the fall in the market from February 2020 to March 2020, the most accurate question to ask is this:
After recovering so much for the March 2020 lows, what is the prior precedent for the market? As we said in our recent review of Atul Auto Limited:
“markets are driven by precedent and the price action that we’re currently seeing is not the first time that the stock price has suffered such a decline.”
The market is always on the hunt to drive investors mad and the best way to accomplish this is by snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
To the question above, we have lined up the years of 1937-1939 as our first qualifying entry (there are more). In this two year period, the market experienced two bear markets (-20% or more) and two market corrections (-10% or more).
Make note of the fact that if this happened to the Dow Jones Industrial Average then it is likely that we could find the same with any market that existed at the same time, for obvious reasons.
See Also:
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Atul Auto Limited October 3, 2020
Atul Auto Limited Price Considerations
2000-2020
When looking at the price chart of Atul Auto Limited (quote here) from 2000 to 2020, it is apparent that disaster is looming on the horizon.
2008-2020
After all, the stock price has declined from a high of 704.90 to the current level of 168.05, or a loss of -76.16%.
2003-2009
However, markets are driven by precedent and the price action that we’re currently seeing is not the first time that the stock price has suffered such a decline.
As seen in the period from the 2005 peak to the 2009 low, Atul Auto Limited declined as much as -89.54%.
What does this mean?
From our experience, this suggests that the low of 117.65, -83.30% from the 704.90 peak, was well within what could be considered “normal” price action for this particular stock. Additionally, if the price were to decline to the 89.54% level, we know that 73.73 is the exact price that could be achieved.
Risk Considerations
How do we like to think about high risk scenarios like that of Atul Auto Limited (if you MUST invest)?
- Our first assumption is to accept that it will fall to zero. This forces us to allocate only the capital that we’re willing to lose completely.
- Whatever we’re willing to lose, we split the position into two. Once at the current price and another at a price below the 117.65 low.
- If the price doesn’t fall below 117.65 then we move on.
- Do not assume that the price will recover to the prior high 704.90. At best, the best case scenario is an increase to 411.28.
- This stock is not for the faint of heart. This means that watching and learning to see if this analysis is right or wrong is superior to putting money in and being right.
Prior Example of the Same “Analysis”
- Ethereum (declined -93% as projected)
Posted in Atul Auto
Kotak Mahindra Bank 10-Year Targets
Below are the price targets for Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited over the next 10 years. Continue reading
Posted in 10-year Targets, Altimeter, India, Kotak
1912-1922: Chain Store Earnings During Pandemic
Below are charts of the top four five and dime stores and how they did during the Spanish Flu Pandemic.
Per Share Earnings: 1912-1922
Year-over-Year Per Share Earnings Percentage Change: 1913-1922
See Also:
Posted in 1912, 1922, Chain Store
Coppock Curve: September 2020
Below is the Coppock Curve data for the following indexes:
- Dow Jones Industrial Average
- S&P 500
- Nasdaq Composite
- Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index
- Russell 2000
- Philadelphia Semiconductor Index
- iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF
- Toronto Stock Exchange
- Bitcoin
If you’re interested in a index not listed, let us know.
HeidelbergCement India 10-Year Targets
Below are the price targets for HeidelbergCement India Limited over the next 10 years. Continue reading
Posted in 10-year Targets, Altimeter, HeidelbergCement
U.S Dividend Watch List: September 25, 2020
Take a look at the performance of last year’s list. The S&P 500 rose +11.40% and the Dow was up only +1.30%. The best performing strategy was high P/B which gained +30.50%. The largest drop in value, -63.2%, was the high yield. As we’ve documented before in great detail, chasing yield has not worked out well.
| September 27, 2019 | ||
| Strategy | High | Low |
| Yield | -63.2% | -11.3% |
| P/E | 4.4% | -51.4% |
| Payout Ratio | -18.4% | -29.2% |
| P/B | 30.5% | -36.1% |
| Closest to Low | -13.8% | |
| S&P 500 | 11.4% | |
| Dow Jones Ind | 1.3% | |
| Top 5 companies except for Index |
||
Under the high P/B strategy, we had LLY, CLX, ROL, MMM, and CHRW. Four companies outperformed the market with ROL rising +60.40% while MMM lost -2.60%. High yield companies were ARLP, OXY, PAA, XOM, and WEYS. Interestingly, the highest yield of 13.5%, ARLP, had the largest drop of -82%.
U.S. Dividend Watch List: September 25, 2020
The recent market pullback is starting to give us hope in our watch list. Our list expanded to 44 companies this week. Continue reading
Posted in Dividend Achiever Watch List, Dividend Achievers, Dividend Watch List
Tagged members
Sun Life Financial 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for Sun Life Financial (SLF.TO) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Fortis Inc. 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for Fortis Inc. (FTS.TO) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Federal Realty Trust 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for Federal Realty Trust (FRT) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Britannia Industries 10-Year Targets
Below are the price targets for Britannia Industries Ltd. (BRITANNIA.BO) over the next 10 years. Continue reading