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Author Archives: nlo-admin
November: Nifty 50–Coppock Buy Signal
The application of Coppock Curve to individual stocks is a challenge. It has proven to be even more difficult applying it to international stocks which, in this case, are India stocks. However, based on our previous work, the Nifty 50 Index has the potential to yield tremendous returns (see here).
To recap, the Nifty 50 Index has had a great record with the latest buy signal at the end of August 2020. See chart and table below for reference.
The list below is the first of many that we will produce in the coming months. All stats are based on 1 year holding period. In the table above, the "success rate" is the occurrence when stock yield positive results after one (1) year. Sample size is the number of buy signals.
While average gains for some companies may be enticing, pay close attention to the loss column as that is the real risk which offsets the potential reward.
ICICI Bank is listed on NYSE under IBN.
Posted in National Stock Exchange of India, Nifty 50, NSE
Coppock Stocks: November 2020
The market had a strong November and pushed the indicator forward into the positive territory. As noted several months ago, the buy signal occurred in July 2020 which proved to be a well timed buy signal.
To better enhance this indicator, we have been collecting data on individual stocks and back testing the strategy. Several months ago, our team applied this strategy (refer to Coppock Curve Applied to Individual Stocks) to 4 companies with amazing result. The average return was +46% since May. We hope that the list below provides you with a viable starting point for your research. Continue reading
MetLife 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for MetLife Inc. (MET) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Eaton Vance 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for Eaton Vance Corp. (EV) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Hormel Foods 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for Hormel Foods Corp. (HRL) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Molson Coors Beverage Co. 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for Molson Coors Beverage Co. (TAP) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
2020 Year to Date Investment Returns
Below is a chart of investment returns for various instruments as published by Business Insider. This includes the top three low yield stocks of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
see also:
Posted in Bitcoin, Crude Oil, Cyclical Trends, Dogs of the Dow, Index YTD
Commodity Index: Upside Resistance Targets
Below is the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) from December 2015 to November 2020.
In the work that follows, we provide an updated view on the upside targets for the index. Continue reading
Posted in BCOM, Bloomberg Commodity Index, commodities, Dow Jones-UBS
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Becton, Dickinson 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for Becton, Dickinson and Co. (BDX) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
McCormick & Co. 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for McCormick & Co. (MKC) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
YoY: Intel Corp.
Below is a chart of Intel Corp. (INTC) from 1981 to 2020 reflecting the year-over-year (YoY) percentage change.
Nifty 50 – Coppock Analysis
Recently, we’ve seen some success applying the Coppock curve or indicator to individual companies. Could we scale this to an emerging market such as Nifty 50, a benchmark Indian stock market index? Running the data through this model reveals some exciting findings, so let’s dive into it.
The assumption we are working with is purchasing the Nifty 50 (^NSEI) when the Coppock issues a buy signal. The target holding periods are 1-3 years. Below are summary table showing important statistics such as success rate, largest loss or risk, average gain, and annualized return. Continue reading
Posted in Coppock Curve, Coppock Index, India, Nifty 50
U.S. Dividend Watch List: November 13, 2020
In reviewing last year’s list, we see that the best strategy was the high P/B category which returned +5.90%, although the market propelled higher by +14.90%.
The largest gain was driven by Clorox (CLX) which, at the time, was trading at a staggering 33x of its book value. Now compare that with American National Insurance (ANAT) which was trading at 0.55x book value. The stock fell -31%.
On average, 3 stocks trading below book value lost -20% of its value in one year. This is the observation we see and simply reporting on the data. The table is a summary table for various strategies.
| November 15, 2019 | ||
| Strategy | High | Low |
| Yield | -23.6% | 4.7% |
| P/E | 1.1% | -30.9% |
| Payout Ratio |
-3.4% | -21.7% |
| P/B | 5.9% | -28.8% |
| Closest to Low |
3.4% | |
| S&P 500 |
14.9% | |
| Dow Jones Ind |
5.3% | |
| Top 5 companies except for Index | ||
Again, we continue to see the traditional value approach underperform.
U.S. Dividend Watch List: November 13, 2020
We saw another all-time high for the market this week. If the Dow Industrial and S&P 500 can consolidate and hold this level, it will be very bullish. This strong market is the reason why there are only 4 companies on our list. Continue reading
Posted in Dividend Achiever Watch List, Dividend Achievers, Dividend Watch List
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