Author Archives: nlo-admin

TSX 60 in Review: 2020-6

The following is the breakdown of the Dogs of the TSX (here) in week six, compared to other fundamental ratios. Continue reading

DJIA in Review: 2020-6

The following is the breakdown of the Dogs of the Dow (found here) in week six, compared to other fundamental ratios. Continue reading

DexCom Inc. Downside Targets

Below are the downside targets for DexCom Inc. (DXCM).

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  • $189.20 (conservative target)
  • $135.2 (mid-range target)
  • $81.23 (extreme target)

DexCom Inc. has had a healthy increase of the last 2 years and requires a reset.  When will that reset occur? We don’t know, however, we suspect that the conservative downside target is the best level to watch for.

Paycom Software Downside Targets

Below are the downside targets for Paycom Software Inc. (PAYC).

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  • $224.12 (conservative target)
  • $168.35 (mid-range target)
  • $112.58 (extreme target)

If extended to the IPO date in 2014, we would have generated much lower downside targets.  In an effort to be reasonable about expectations, the targets have been set from 2018.  The forecast is that PAYC will decline to the ascending level of $224.12.

Tesla Downside Targets

Below are the downside targets for Tesla Inc. (TSLA).

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  • $507.09 (conservative target)
  • $401.39 (mid-range target)
  • $295.69 (extreme target)

Parabolic increases rarely go unchecked.  This typically means that a decline to the conservative downside target is the norm, at minimum.  However, Tesla has had a history of defying the “norm” when it comes to price change.

U.S. Dividend Watch List: January 31, 2020

Prior Year Watch List Review (February 1, 2019)

The best strategy was to buying the top five companies with a high P/E ratio which gained +28.40%. The strong performance was driven by Brown-Forman (BF-B) and Aqua America (WTR) gaining +42.00% and +50.00%, respectively. Compare that to S&P 500 which gained +19.20% and Dow Jones Industrial Average gained of +12.70%. Purchasing top five stocks nearest to the low or low P/E stocks would net you negative returns in the last year.

February 1, 2019
Strategy High Low
Yield1 6.2% 12.9%
P/E1 28.4% -1.8%
Payout Ratio1 11.1% 18.7%
P/B1 13.5% 4.5%
Closest to Low1   -1.7%
S&P 500   19.2%
Dow Jones Ind   12.7%
1 - Top 5 companies

U.S. Dividend Watch List January 31, 2020

It was a tough week for the market with all indexes retracting. One could attribute that to the Coronavirus outbreak that originated in China or perhaps the market is over-extended. We're less concern about the reason and simply looking forward to the opportunities to accumulate shares at a discount. Below is the watch list for this week. Continue reading

Luckin Coffee Downside Targets

Below are the downside targets for Luckin Coffee (LK).

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  • $34.88 (conservative target)
  • $25.78 (mid-range target)
  • $16.67 (extreme target)

The strong rise in the price from November 2019 to January 2020 is being matched by the current decline.  We expect that the decline to the $25.78 level should be accomplished as a natural reaction to the prior dramatic increase.

UPS 10-Year Targets

Below are the valuation targets for United Parcel Service (UPS) for the next 10 years. Continue reading

Nordstrom 10-Year Targets

Below are the valuation targets for Nordstrom Inc. (JWN) over the next 10 years. Continue reading

Westlake Chemical 10-Year Targets

Below are the valuation targets for Westlake Chemical (WLK) over the next 10 years. Continue reading

Polaris Industries 10-Year Targets

Below are the valuation targets for Polaris Industries (PII) over the next 10 years. Continue reading

Lazard 10-Year Targets

Below are the valuation targets for Lazard Ltd. (LAZ) over the next 10 years. Continue reading

Reinsurance Group of America 10-Year Targets

Below are the valuation targets for Reinsurance Group of America (RGA) over the next 10 years. Continue reading

Graham Holdings 10-Year Targets

Below are the valuation targets for Graham Holdings (GHC) over the next 10 years. Continue reading

U.S. Dividend Watch List January 24, 2020

It was a volatile week for the market as fear of virus outbreak hit the market. The VIX which measure volatility in the market rose nearly 30%. However, the big picture remain bullish for the market. The S&P 500 remain far from the medium and long term trend and our watch list contain 31 companies. Continue reading