Below is the monthly New York Times Recession/Depression Index from January 2000 to mid-March 2020.
We think the corner has turned on the New York Times Recession/Depression Index. This means that we think that the U.S. economy is about to enter a recessionary period as designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
What about the Federal Reserve’s recent implementation of an emergency rate reduction to zero percent and QE? What about the president’s actions in declaring a national emergency? This may reverse the trend from the November 2017 low.
We’ll gladly take in any new information that can reverse or change the index numbers going forward.
Visit our December 30, 2018 explanation of this index (found here) which goes back to 1851.