Below is a chart of Netflix (NFLX) from 2003 to 2019 reflecting the year-over-year (YoY) percentage change.
In the last 12 months, Netflix (NFLX) has declined approximately -28%, on a YoY basis. Below is the history of returns when Netflix (NFLX) has declined by similar YoY levels since 2004.
Following a similar decline of -28%, had Netflix (NFLX) been acquired and held for 2 years, the average return of +318% and median return was +153% with a high level of probability. When we exclude the +868% return for the 2008 value, the average of the three other indications shows an average increase of +134%, a number that seems realistic compared to +318%.
We’re assuming that no additional purchase is made for the stock and that the position is held at least two years. The 2005 and 2012 declines of –70% or more suggests that there is potential downside risk and therefore requires a two part purchase plan if any action is taken.