Category Archives: Analyst Estimate

Toronto Stock Exchange

The accompanying chart of the Toronto Stock Exchange from 1979 to the present includes the work of Edson Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines (SRL).

What stands out is the coincidence of previous peaks, indicated by uppercase letters of the alphabet, being followed by declines to the current conservative downside target (8,450.30), at the respective lowercase letters.   The work of Gould isn’t a cure-all for what might happen in the stock market, however, it does provide a reasonable guideline to work from.

The coincidence of seven prior declines to the 8,450.30 level makes us wonder if the Toronto Stock Exchange has any chance to decline to the conservative downside target of 8,450.30, at (h).  It may asking much to suggest that the Toronto Stock Exchange could fall another -39.44% but if it does for some unknown reason then it would be good to have your resources (cash) at the ready.

The performance of the Canadian Watch List from September 2014 is listed below:

From left to right, the first five stocks on the list averaged a gain of +5.88% in the last year while the entire list averaged a loss of –8.90% compared to the Toronto Stock Exchange decline of –7.95%.

Of the companies listed, Just Energy (JE.TO), Transcontinental (TCL-A.TO) and North West Co. (NWC.TO) were the top three performers with an average gain of +36%.  At the bottom of the performance scale were Crescent Point Energy (CPG.TO), TransAlta (TA.TO) and AGF Management (AGF-B.TO) with an average loss of –51%.

Canadian Dividend Watch List September 2015

Performance Review

Below is the performance of the Canadian Dividend Watch List from July 2013:

The average return for the entire watch list was +9.84% compared to the Toronto Stock Exchange Composite index change of +13.33% in the period from July 19, 2013 to July 22, 2015.  At the time, we said the following of the watch list:

“We recommend careful examination of the listed companies in the REIT arena as they have less upside potential than is ideal.”

Since July 2013, the REIT related companies on the watch list generated a return of +0.94% while companies not in the REIT sector gained an average of +18.94%.

July 2015 Canadian Dividend Watch List

Below is the Canadian stocks of interest: