“Many shall be restored that are now fallen and many shall fall that are in honor.”
Horace, Ars Poetica
| Symbol | Name | Price | P/E | EPS | Yield | P/B | % from low |
| WSH | Willis Group Holdings | 40.07 | 21.75 | 2.18 | 2.7 | 2.95 | 0.15% |
| L | Loews Corporation | 42.14 | 68.19 | 1.06 | 0.6 | 0.84 | 0.69% |
| AFL | AFLAC Inc. | 59.02 | 9.32 | 6.46 | 2.3 | 1.51 | 2.89% |
| PRA | ProAssurance Corporation | 43.67 | 11.67 | 3.74 | 2.7 | 1.11 | 3.26% |
| ACGL | Arch Capital Group Ltd. | 54.19 | 11.42 | 4.52 | - | 1.22 | 3.75% |
| PGR | Progressive Corp. | 23.42 | 12.27 | 1.96 | 1.9 | 2.03 | 3.95% |
| SAFT | Safety Insurance Group Inc. | 50.37 | 13.05 | 3.86 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 4.01% |
| RDN | Radian Group Inc. | 12.75 | 11.88 | 1.07 | 0.1 | 1.89 | 4.68% |
| ORI | Old Republic International | 14.5 | 9.05 | 2.04 | 4.3 | 0.94 | 5.53% |
| CB | The Chubb Corporation | 87.44 | 10.69 | 8.36 | 2.1 | 1.31 | 5.60% |
| CLGX | CoreLogic, Inc. | 27.04 | 58.53 | 0.75 | 0 | 2.34 | 6.08% |
| CINF | Cincinnati Financial Corp. | 46.53 | 18.03 | 2.73 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 6.67% |
| AXS | AXIS Capital Holdings Limited | 44.62 | 7.75 | 4.58 | 2.4 | 0.87 | 6.70% |
| CNA | CNA Financial Corporation | 37.45 | 13.08 | 2.59 | 2.5 | 0.79 | 6.88% |
| VR | Validus Holdings, Ltd. | 36.69 | 6.17 | 4.63 | 3.2 | 0.88 | 7.60% |
| STC | Stewart Information Services | 31.07 | 26.49 | 1.96 | 0.3 | 1.04 | 7.62% |
| TKOMY | Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. | 30.46 | 13.03 | 2.34 | - | 0.89 | 8.17% |
| KCLI | Kansas City Life Insurance Company | 43.45 | 17.35 | 2.72 | 2.3 | 0.62 | 8.38% |
| AXAHY | AXA Group | 23.52 | 9.57 | 2.39 | - | 0.81 | 8.69% |
| PTP | Platinum Underwriters Holdings Ltd. | 59.87 | 9.01 | 6.87 | 0.5 | 0.88 | 8.80% |
| AJG | Arthur J Gallagher & Co. | 44.83 | 21.21 | 2.09 | 3.1 | 2.17 | 9.05% |
| TDHOY | T&D Holdings, Inc. | 6.38 | 11.15 | 0.57 | - | 0.86 | 9.06% |
| SIGI | Selective Insurance Group Inc. | 23.41 | 12.73 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.06 | 9.49% |
| BRO | Brown & Brown Inc. | 30.49 | 20.46 | 1.43 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 9.83% |
Analyst Estimates
Below is a snapshot of the analysts low estimated earnings assuming the stock retains the current p/e ratio until the end of the respective fiscal year and the percentage change in price that is implied based on these low earnings estimates. Our recommendation is to start with the companies that have the worst prospects, according to the analysts, and through a process of elimination determine which company has the least risks.
Sector Downside Risk
Below is the long term review of the insurance sector using the iShares US Insurance ETF (IAK). It should be noted that, in general, the sector is coming off of an all time high at $48.54. What this implies is that there is considerable downside risk. According to Dow Theory, IAK could fall as low as $36.20 and still be considered within the rising trend. This becomes difficult to believe considering that a decline to $36.20 would equal a –25% retreat from the most recent peak.
Investors interested in insurance stocks need to add to their assessment the potential for a general decline in the sector along with the potential for individual downside risk.