The NLO team executed the following transaction(s): Continue reading
- Japan
- Market Indicator
- Price Momentum Indicators
- Richard Russell
- Silver
- Speed Resistance Lines
- U.S. Dividend Watch List
ABM Industries 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for ABM Industries (ABM) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Starbucks 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for Starbucks (SBUX) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Martin Marietta Materials 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) for the next 10 years.
Sears Holdings: Delisting and Bankruptcy Await
In our August 26, 2014 posting, we said the followings on Sears Holdings (SHLD) when the stock was trading at $34.67:
“The worst performing stock was Sears Holdings (SHLD). Sears has essentially traded with descending peaks since 2007 with price support at around $30. A break below $30 could result in significant loss for any remaining shareholders. Private equity firms must be circling Sears at the prospect of a decline below the long-term support.”
On September 28, 2018, at the close, Sears was trading at $0.97, a staggering loss of –97.11% from the August 26, 2014 commentary.
Bloomberg.com has highlighted an issue that we have been pointing out for some time, the massive conflict of interest. Below are details of the most recent conflict of interest.
Polaris Industries 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for Polaris Industries (PII) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Bank of Hawaii 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for Bank of Hawaii (BOH) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Tilray Upside Retest
Tilray (TLRY) recently hit a closing low of $99.50. If the upside move follows the minimum expected retracement, based on Dow Theory, then we’re looking for the following minimum targets:
Posted in TLRY
U.S Dividend Watch List: September 21, 2018
Previous Year Performance Review
In our ongoing review of the NLO Dividend Watch List, we have taken the top five stocks on our list from September 22, 2017 and have checked the performance one year later. The top five companies on that list can be seen in the table below.
| Symbol | Name | 2015 Price | 2016 Price | % change |
| SCG | SCANA Corporation | 55.22 | 34.86 | -36.9% |
| SJM | JM Smucker | 104.59 | 110.16 | 5.3% |
| HRL | Hormel Foods Corp. | 31.27 | 40.01 | 28.0% |
| ATNI | Atlantic Tele-Network | 50.75 | 72.40 | 42.7% |
| CAG | ConAgra Foods | 33.15 | 37.45 | 13.0% |
| Average | 10.4% | |||
| DJI | Dow Jones Industrial | 21,987.56 | 26,743.50 | 21.6% |
| SPX | S&P 500 | 2,502.22 | 2,929.67 | 17.1% |
The top five companies didn't do as well as the market rising only 10.4%. Biggest hold back of that gain came from SCANA Corp (SCG) which lost 36.9%. This is what we said about SCANA a year ago.
Trading at the yearly low is an electric utility company, SCANA Corp (SCG). Based out of South Carolina, SCANA is a 7.9B company that has been around since 1924. Our team know little about this company but one important fact loom over this company. There is a class action lawsuit on its executives that they have violated federal securities laws. While we can't fully recommend that our reader consider it for assessment until the smoke is clear, we will keep the company on our list until further noticed.
The best performer was Atlantic Tele-Network (ATNI) which gained 42.7% in one year. Our team, however, didn't know much about the company and was focused on two household names, JM Smucker (SJM) and Hormel Foods (HRL) which gained 5.3% and 28.0% respectively.
U.S Dividend Watch List: September 21, 2018
If you missed our commentary on Dow Theory this month, I suggest one go back and review it. It may seems strange at this level to put money to work but investing should always be forward looking proposition. Positioning yourself in this market will be key and we always position ourself with high quality company utilizing the dividend achiever approach as a proxy for quality. As such, here are the company on our watch list this week. Continue reading
Posted in Dividend Achiever Watch List, Dividend Achievers, Dividend Watch List
Tagged members
Canadian Watch List: September 2018
Below is the Watch List for September 2018.
Dogs of the TSX 60
The Dogs of the Toronto Stock Exchange 60 largest market cap stocks is continuing the pattern that we observed with the the highest yielding stocks severely underperforming all other categories.
Below is a list of the various stocks within each category and their respective performance since December 13, 2017. Continue reading
Tilray Inc.: Parabolic Review
On September 13, 2018 when Tilray Inc. (TLRY) was trading at $118.00, we said:
“Below we outline the downside targets for both current price of $118 and $236 for when/if the stock doubles from the current price. The conservative downside target is fairly assured to occur in either case. From the $118 level, a decline to the $66.67 level would be a natural retest of the $77.89 level set on September 7, 2018.”
Since September 13, 2018, TLRY has increased as high as $300 on an intraday basis with a closing high of $214.06. From what we can tell, the runup has dissipated for now. On the downside, we see TLRY declining to the $102.92 target at minimum and it may achieve the the extreme downside target of $66.67 as outlined in our previous posting.
The nature of a parabolic rise is the manifestation of the price going to extremes. Speed Resistance Lines are the best measure of the extreme on the way down. It is the same going down as it is for going up. Therefore, we would not be surprised to see TLRY go as far down as $$42.42.
Posted in parabolic, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL, TLRY
Dow Theory: September 2018
Ideally, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closes above the January 2018 peak today.
W.W. Grainger Downside Targets
W.W. Grainger (GWW) is a stock that we currently hold and has run-up significantly in the last year. In this post we will review Edson Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines [SRL] and Altimeter for GWW.
Speed Resistance Lines are most often used by us to estimate downside targets. Based on the increase from the August 28, 2017 low and the August 21, 2018 high, we have arrived at the following downside targets.
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$295.55 (conservative target)
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$209.30 (mid-range target)
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$123.05 (extreme target)
It should be noted that the chart above does not include the extreme downside target. If the August 21, 2018 price is the peak then our best guess is that GWW will decline below the August 28, 2017 low. Our interpretation on the SRL may not play out for a while, however, the Altimeter adds significant insight.
Posted in downside, Edson Gould, GWW, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL