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Category Archives: Randgold
Nasdaq 100 Watch List: January 9, 2015
Performance Review
Below is the performance of the seven stocks from the January 10, 2014 Nasdaq 100 watch list compared to the performance of the Nasdaq 100 Index in the last year.
| Symbol | Name | 2014 | 2015 | % change |
| ALTR | Altera Corp. | 31.47 | 36.96 | 17.45% |
| SHLD | Sears Holdings | 36.71 | 34.3 | -6.56% |
| GOLD | Randgold Resources | 61.57 | 74.91 | 21.67% |
| MXIM | Maxim Integrated Products | 28.15 | 32.99 | 17.19% |
| CHRW | CH Robinson Worldwide | 57.7 | 72.06 | 24.89% |
| EBAY | eBay Inc. | 52.16 | 55.63 | 6.65% |
| FAST | Fastenal Company | 47.7 | 45.99 | -3.58% |
| Average change | 11.10% | |||
| Nasdaq 100 | 18.18% |
As a group, the stocks on our list underperformed the Nasdaq 100 by a wide margin. The first five stocks on our list averaged a gain of +14.92%. Two stocks that we took positions in at the time were Altera (ALTR) and Randgold (GOLD).
Analyst Review
The chart below is what the analysts suggested the stocks would do…
…This is the graphical representation of what actually happened.
The observation of the data should be clear, the analysts expected declines for the coming year and the opposite occurred. The projections were that Randgold (GOLD) would decline by nearly –50% and the stock increased by +21.67%. From our perspective, the analysts provide a reasonable sound board for what to anticipate, as has been demonstrated with our Canadian and U.S. Watch Lists.
Nasdaq 100 Watch List: January 9, 2015
Below are the nine Nasdaq 100 companies that are on our radar.
Nasdaq 100 Watch List: December 26, 2014
Performance Review
The December 6, 2013 watch list contained the following companies and resulted in the accompanying 1-year results:
| Symbol | 2013 | 2014 | % change |
| CTRX | 44.99 | 51.93 | 15.43% |
| ALTR | 32.12 | 38.27 | 19.15% |
| ISRG | 377.38 | 531.24 | 40.77% |
| MXIM | 28.46 | 31.65 | 11.21% |
| CHRW | 57.89 | 76.75 | 32.58% |
| EBAY | 52.01 | 57.04 | 9.67% |
| EQIX | 165.48 | 232.76 | 40.66% |
| GOLD | 65.44 | 66.26 | 1.25% |
The companies on our watch list from last year gained an average of +21.34% as compared to the Nasdaq 100 which gained +23.11%. Our analyst estimate section of the watch list from last year shows what the stock on our list were expected to do over the following 12 months.
All of the stocks were expected to decline in value, overall. However, what is most striking about the one year performance is that while companies on the far left were expected to do the worst those on the far right were expected to the best (sort of). Below is the actual one year performance:
A side by side comparison will demonstrate that (again) the trend of performance favors those stocks that have been pinned with the worst expectations.
Nasdaq 100 Watch List: December 26, 2014
The following stocks are on our radar and should be on yours:
Nasdaq 100 Watch List: December 5, 2014
Performance Review
Below is the watch list from December 6, 2013 and the subsequent performance over the last year:
| Symbol | Name | 2013 | 2014 | % change |
| CTRX | Catamaran | 44.99 | 51.25 | 13.91% |
| ALTR | Altera Corp. | 32.12 | 37.93 | 18.09% |
| ISRG | Intuitive Surgical, Inc. | 377.38 | 508.86 | 34.84% |
| MXIM | Maxim Integrated | 28.46 | 31.36 | 10.19% |
| CHRW | CH Robinson Worldwide | 57.89 | 74.63 | 28.92% |
| EBAY | eBay Inc. | 52.01 | 54.81 | 5.38% |
| EQIX | Equinix, Inc. | 165.48 | 231.68 | 40.00% |
| GOLD | Randgold Resources | 65.44 | 64.85 | -0.90% |
| Average change | 18.80% | |||
| Nasdaq 100 Index | 23.04% |
Below is the chart of analyst estimated returns from December 6, 2013 compared to the performance one year later:
In the example above, we see that, in general, the stocks performed in opposition to what analysts had anticipated. It is important to note that we routinely recommend that investors consider the stocks that have the worst prospects first based on analyst estimates. After appropriate due diligence, stocks deemed unacceptable risks should be eliminated.
As has been the case for some time, analyst estimates have fallen far from the mark when assessing the prospects for stocks. At the time, Equinix (EQIX) was considered by analysts to have the worst prospects. As it happens, Equinix managed to gain the most among the stocks that we tracked last year. For our part, we had EQIX on our radar as early as July 26, 2013. We said the following of the stock:
“A stock that is establishing a significant technical pattern is Equinix (EQIX). It seems that Equinix is developing a ‘head and shoulder’ formation. this suggests that a further decline below $176 will result in a minimum decline to the conservative downside target of $158.37. We would consider a review of EQIX fundamentals at or below $110.”
Our concern for downside risk resulted in being too cautious. However, after our July 26, 2013 commentary, EQIX declined from $183.75 to the Edson Gould SRL conservative downside target of $158.37. Once achieving the low at $155, EQIX started to make the long climb higher.
Nasdaq 100 Watch List: December 5, 2014
The following are the stocks that are on our watch list with Analyst Estimates:
Nasdaq 100 Watch List: July 12, 2013
Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 11% of their respective 52-week lows. Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and rigorous due diligence. Continue reading