Performance Review
Below is the 1-year performance of our Canadian Dividend Watch List from November 18, 2016 to November 10, 2017 as compared to the Toronto Stock Exchange.
| symbol | Name | total return |
| EMP-A.TO | Empire Company Limited | 46.23% |
| CCA.TO | Cogeco Communications Inc. | 39.05% |
| NWC.TO | North West Company Inc. | 36.28% |
| AX-UN.TO | Artis REIT | 30.72% |
| D-UN.TO | Dream Office REIT | 29.71% |
| GS.TO | Gluskin Sheff + Associates | 22.87% |
| ET.TO | Evertz Technologies Limited | 22.09% |
| FFH.TO | Fairfax Financial Holdings | 18.04% |
| EMA.TO | Emera Incorporated | 13.04% |
| CUF-UN.TO | Cominar REIT | 11.40% |
| ACD.TO | Accord Financial Corp. | 10.17% |
| REF-UN.TO | Canadian REIT | 6.05% |
| MRU.TO | Metro Inc. | 4.00% |
| REI-UN.TO | Riocan REIT | 3.39% |
| BEI-UN.TO | Boardwalk REIT | 2.72% |
| ENGH.TO | Enghouse Systems Limited | -3.90% |
| average % change | 18.24% | |
| TSX | Toronto Stock Exchange | 8.18% |
While the entire list averaged a sizable gain above the TSX, the top three in the respective value categories had the following results:
| high yield | 23.95% |
| low yield | 6.05% |
| high p/e | 3.95% |
| low p/e | 14.81% |
| high p/b | 7.66% |
| low p/b | 14.95% |
One stock that we considered was Fairfax Financial (FFH.TO). At the time, we said the following:
“Our recommendation for FFH.TO, for investors willing to accept the risk, is a three stage purchase plan with the first purchase taking place at $581 and below with 50% of intended funds. The second and third purchases at $479.95 and $363.52 with 25% of remaining funds, respectively.”
Since that time, FFH.TO declined below $581 with an ultimate low of $557. Below is the updated review of FFH.TO:
Continuing with Dow Theory, the expectation should be that exceeding the 50% Principle (from 41 to 51) means that there is a good chance that FFH.TO will go to the previous all-time high in the Altimeter. However, the January 2017 dividend reduction could be an indication of difficult times ahead. The highlighted double-top and exceeding the 50% Principle (under the assumption of buying below $581) means that FFH.TO’s minimum gain of +18% in the last year exceeds normal expectations.
