About Us

The current contributors to this website are Toucalit Benton and Art Papartassee. Touc and Art are not registered representatives or a member of any broker, dealer, market making firm, national or global stock exchanges. Despite our confidence in our recommendations and lacking the credentials necessary to professionally manage money, we must state that this website is for educational and “entertainment” purposes only.

Why choose the New Low Observer for your investment ideas? We get the macro picture right…

The following are articles that we have published on SeekingAlpha.com, a third party website where we cannot change the content after submitting, which has outlined our macro view on the markets:

  • The Importance of Market Perspective (click link to read more): February 2009 article addresses the overwhelming pessimism in the stock market and suggests that the market has a high probability of recovering 50% to 100% of losses. One month later the stock market hit bottom and started a new recovery which gained 126% from the low and recovered 93% of the losses from the 2007 peak.
  • Diversification:It Really Doesn’t Matter: This article addresses the point that diversification in stocks won’t protect stock investors from a major market decline.
  • Dow Jones’ Decline Largely Impacted by Index Changes: This article addresses the fact that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would not have declined by -89% (would have dropped less) if so many companies weren’t added and dropped from the index in the period from 1929 to 1932.
  • Industrial Production Index: Is the Recession Over?: August 23, 2009 article said that National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) would claim that the recession ended in June 2009. On September 20,2010, 13 months later, the NBER proclaimed that the recession ended in June 2009 (NBER proclamation found here).
  • Why Silver Beats Gold as a Precious Metals Play: September 2009 article that says that if investors missed the run in gold then they should consider silver as a superior precious metals investment. As of March 30, 2012, silver is up 96% while gold is up 66%. At the same time, silver had been as high as 193% while gold only went as high as 87% since the recommendation was made.
  • Recovery From 1929 Crash Was Quicker Than Most People Think: This article demonstrates that many companies got back to break even within 8 years rather than the 25 years it took for the Dow Jones Industrial Average to get to break even.
  • Low Dividend Yields Equaled Big Gains: Article shows how superior performance can be gained with low yielding dividend stocks.
  • Three Upside Scenarios for the Dow Industrials: April 2010 article that accurately projected the Dow Industrials bull market would peak between January and June2011. The Dow peaked in May 2011 and a Dow Theory bear market was indicated in August 2011 and has not been reversed as of April 2, 2012.
  • U.S. Natural Gas Fund: The Beginning of the ETF Unwinding?: September 2009article that warned of the risks that ETFs pose to the stock market. On May 5,2010, the stock market “flash crash” was attributed to pricing discrepancies and either caused by or most severely impacted ETFs.
  • Next Stop for the Dow Is 9,800: On May 16, 2010, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average was trading at 10,620, we predicted that the Dow would trade down to the 9,800 level. On June 7, 2010, The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 9,816. Although the Dow closed lower one month later, there was no confirmation of the trend in the Transportation Average, suggesting that the market would move higher. In fact, the Dow recovered all of the losses from the 10,620 level.

…And…we get the micro view right also…

The following are articles that we have published on SeekingAlpha.com, a third party website where we cannot change the content after submitting, which has outlined our individual stock views:

  • Helmerich & Payne (HP): On September 29, 2006 (unpublished on SeekingAlpha.com) at $23.03. After our 2006 recommendation, we recommended selling HP on August 13, 2008 at $55.27. On March 11, 2009, we recommended buying HP at $22.37.

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  • Altria (MO): On December 10, 2008, in the midst of a crashing stock market, we recommended Altria at $15.34. The stock has done nothing but go up ever since. On a total return basis, Altria is up 161% as of April 2, 2012.

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Additional stock recommendations that served our readers well that can be verified on the 3rd party site Seeking Alpha:

  • Bank of Hawaii (BOH): Consider Buying on January 12, 2009
  • Meridian Biosciences (VIVO): Consider Buying on March 27, 2009; Consider Selling on June 9, 2009
  • Matthews International (MATW): Consider Buying on April 1, 2009
  • H&R Block (HRB): Consider Buying on May 19, 2009; Consider Selling after 18% gain in June 2009 (on NLO site)
  • Northwest Natural Gas (NWN): Consider Buying on October 4, 2009
  • American National Insurance (ANAT): Consider Selling on December 22, 2009
  • Cephalon (CEPH): Consider Selling on March 3, 2010 at $70.78 based on previous buy recommendation near $55 and $62 range; Consider Buying on February 16, 2011 at $55.89; CEPH was subsequently acquired by Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA) near $80 per share.
  • Cree Inc. (CREE): Consider selling on June 6, 2010; the stock falls –66%
  • Wesco Financial (WSC): Consider Buying on August 24, 2010; Warren Buffett buys WSC four days later
  • Transatlantic Holdings (TRH): Consider Buying on August 28, 2010: Warren Buffett makes unsuccessful bid, company acquired at higher price than what Buffett offers.
  • ConAgra Foods (CAG): Consider Buying on December 1, 2010.

Within each watch list are quality stocks worth consideration that have been acquired by other companies at substantially higher prices. However, we’ve only cited the stocks that we’ve made specific recommendations on that can be confirmed from a 3rd party source. We are unafraid to provided SELL recommendations and re-examine mistakes that we’ve made (as found here and here).

Our investing strategy provides support for meeting the goals of both short and long-term investors for their tax-deferred or Roth IRA accounts.

Why We Changed from an ad-free site to a subscription based format

The New Low Observer has been providing valuable content free of charge to the investing community every week for over three years. Initially, we had intended for our webpages to be free to the public without advertisements.

In the years since the Dow Theory bull market initiated our site on July 24, 2009, there have been subscription-based investing websites that have “borrowed” our work. One website, in particular, went so far as to indicate that the NLO team was actually a contributor to their website, unbeknownst to us. In other instances, websites have “borrowed” our content while bombarding their readers with advertisements as a mean to support their existence.

All along, we’ve attempted to take a different approach on this matter. We’ve never utilized advertisements to supplement our work for various reasons, chief among them, in most instances, the advertisements that are displayed are in conflict with our goal of investing in companies that will be around even if the timing of a purchase isn’t the most accurate. We’ve seen ads for penny stocks or other fly-by-night strategies that are either not proven or otherwise scams. As such, we’ve worked hard to keep our site free of advertisements while providing quality content. We hope to continue this philosophy going forward.

In terms of the pricing of our service, we have benchmarked the price of our service in alignment with comparable websites that provide Dow Theory analysis. As our Dow Theory analysis has provided the most accurate bull and bear market indications (fewer indications which reduces transactional costs), we believe that our interpretation on Dow Theory is superior to comparable services and therefore relatively underpriced. Our record on Dow Theory can be found here.

As an indication of the “value” of the stocks that appear on our U.S. Dividend Watch List, several have been acquired by Warren Buffett or other competitors shortly after being on our list. The U.S. Dividend Watch List is the cornerstone of our stock research and has consistently exceeded expectations by providing growth stock returns with income investing yields. Our Nasdaq 100, Canadian Dividend, and Insurance Watch Lists are evolutions of a growing strategy to highlight investment opportunities at reasonable values in accordance with Dow Theory.

Again, our goal is to provide the best investment insight we can. We hope that those who have proved to be most loyal in following our site in the past (worts and all) have enough evidence to subscribing to our site in the future. We also hope that readers will understand our decision to move to a subscription based model. Your consideration on this matter is greatly appreciated.

Disclaimer

As a disclaimer, the NLO team is not liable for misunderstandings, misinterpretations, and errors that lead to investment loss or gain. Our research is believed to be from reliable sources. In the event that a source is not cited it is done in error. It is best to assume that our team has a conflict of interest due to the fact that we may actually own the stock before the publishing of a investment observation or we may have sold a stock before a sell recommendation. We do not short sell (sell short) or hold put options on any sell recommendations that are made. Sell recommendations are not our opinion of the management team of the company in question. Instead, sell recommendations are reflections of our opinion that the money invested in a particular stock is better allocated in other stocks.