Consumer Sentiment: June 2020

We keep going back to our August 4, 2019 posting where we said the following of consumer sentiment:

“A trend doesn’t define the future prospects.  However, we believe that the [consumer sentiment] declining trend has not completely played out.  This means that we expect that the economy and stock market will languish, in the best case scenario.”

The Economy

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The Stock Market

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With the stock market at a zero percentage change from the August 5, 2019 level and the Industrial Production Index at crash worthy lows similar to 2008/2009, we think that our targets have been achieved.  However, we’re still very concerned about the risks going forward. Continue reading

NYT Recession/Depression Index

On June 8, 2020, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) officially declared the U.S. economy in recession.  This follows the prior call of a recovery in the U.S. economy in June 2009.  What does the New York Times Recession/Depression Index look like?

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We have put blue arrows to show the points of interest to us.  We believe that we’re in the early stages of the recession which should see an intermediate drop in the indicator before another spike to a new high level.  That spike should be at or above the 300 level and the peak would mark the end of the recession (+/- month).

See Also: August 2009: The Recession is Over

Transaction Alert

We executed the following transaction(s): Continue reading

NLO in Review: Week 23

The following is the breakdown of the Dogs of the NLO based on our January 3, 2020 watch list, compared to other fundamental ratios.  The purpose of this work is to confirm or deny the claims proposed of the Dogs of the Dow theory as outlined by Michael O’Higgins in his book Beating the Dow. Continue reading

DJIA in Review: Week 23

Below is the year-to-date (YTD) performance of various major indexes and from December 31, 2019 to June 5, 2020.

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The following is the breakdown of the Dogs of the Dow (found here) in week 23, compared to other fundamental ratios. Continue reading

TSX 60 in Review: Week 23

The following is the breakdown of the Dogs of the TSX (here) in week 23, compared to other fundamental ratios. Continue reading

Coppock Curve – Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A)

The recent market rally has pushed the market (S&P 500) near break even for the year. However, shares of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A) remain -11% below the price at the start of the year. This drop in value could potentially be a buying opportunity and today we apply the market timing strategy of the Coppock Curve to Berkshire shares.

It’s a rare occurrence when the Coppock Curve for Berkshire reach negative territory. For 40 years, there are only 8 times (once every 5 years) we get a buy signal. We haven’t receive a proper buy-signal yet but let’s review what it did in the past.

The table below shows a summary statistic of all 7 signals from the past. Continue reading

Northwest Natural Gas 10-Year Targets

Below are the valuation targets for Northwest Natural Gas (NWN) for the next 10 years. Continue reading

RLI Corp. 10-Year Targets

Below are the valuation targets for RLI Corp. (RLI) for the next 10 years. Continue reading

The Gist: REIT Data Review

On August 23, 2016, the folks at Hoya Capital Real Estate provided data on the real estate investment trust (REIT) sector that we believe is bearing fruit.

In the table below, the apartment sector of REIT’s is covered.  The data columns include AFFO/G, current AFFOx, and forward AFFOx ratios.

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We took the current AFFOx column and looked at the performance of the REIT that had the highest and lowest ratios and ran a simple comparison of the REIT charts to determine the performance from August 23, 2016 to May 25, 2020. Our goal is to see if, on a spectrum of highest to lowest AFFO ratios, which had performed better.

In this case, it was Apartment Investment and Management Co. (AIX) with the highest current AFFO ratio and Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc. (MAA) with the lowest AFFO ratio.  Below is the performance of the two REITs from August 23, 2016 to May 25, 2020.

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This is a single grab of data between only the highest and lowest current AFFO ratios within a narrowly defined subset of the REIT industry.  However, the results, especially after the recent crash in the REIT market, are fascinating. 

We think that the continued emphasis on the hard data by Hoya Capital will prove instrumental in understanding the complexities of the REIT sector.  Furthermore, as the data grows with the passage of time, we expect that, in the realm of REIT investing, Hoya Capital is on the right path and we recommend reviewing their work for anyone serious about buying REITs.

Digital Realty 10-Year Targets

Below are the valuation targets for Digital Realty Trust (DLR) for the next 10 years. Continue reading

American Tower 10-Year Targets

Below are the valuation targets for American Tower Corp (AMT) for the next 10 years. Continue reading

On This Date: Roy Wenzlick

On this date in 1942, Roy Wenzlick, in his publication titled Real Estate Analyst, said the following:

"Leaving aside the equitable or inequitable nature of the freezing data in the various cities, what will be the over-all effect of rent control on values and on sales during the period of the emergency and the period that follows?

"According to Cyril De Mara, Rentals Administrator in Canada, rent control in Canada has brought about an increase in sales with increasing prices of single-family residences with increasing prices. Many persons not being able to rent the type of units they desired have purchased instead - giving the former tenants notice to vacate. In fact, this has continued to the-point that labor circles have complained that tenants are being forced out to make room for buyers. According to Mr. De Mara apartment sales have remained on the game level as a year ago, although sales prices of apartments have not increased. Speculative buyers have been replaced by persons desiring to have a fixed income."

Roy Wenzlick. Real Estate Analyst. "The Effects of Rent Control". May 27, 1942. page 137.

Dow Altimeter Review: May 2020

On April 3, 2018, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 24,033.36, we said the following:

“The downside risk is the most important element to watch for.  In this regard we’re focused on the 18,575 level as the downside target.  However, the 18,575 level can’t be achieved without first going through the 21,530 level.  This, 21,530, happens to be the 50% Principle for the Altimeter. Therefore, the chart below is the outline of 21,530 as our next expected downside target.”

On March 23, 2020, the Dow Jones Industrial Average achieved a low of 18,213.65 on an intraday basis.  The 18,213.65 level was within our target of 18,575 for downside risk.

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Our updated analysis on the Dow Jones Industrial Average found here: Dow 10-Year Targets

The Dow’s 10-Year Targets

Below are the valuation targets for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) for the next 10 years. Continue reading