Below is the list of central banks through history.
- Japan
- Market Indicator
- Price Momentum Indicators
- Richard Russell
- Silver
- Speed Resistance Lines
- U.S. Dividend Watch List
2020 Year to Date Investment Returns
Below is a chart of investment returns for various instruments as published by Business Insider. This includes the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th ranked low yield stocks of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
see also:
Posted in Bitcoin, Crude Oil, Dogs of the Dow, Index YTD
2020 Book List
Below are the books that we’ve read cover-to-cover in 2020. Don’t forget to check out our 2018, 2017, 2016 and Dow Theory Letters book lists.
The top three must read books from the latest list are:
The Market Ratio: December 2020
Since our last posting on the Market Ratio on August 13, 2020, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased approximately +7.40%.
However, this wasn’t the payoff based on our work of August 13, 2020. As seen below, the payoff has been a gain of nearly 3x what the DJIA had achieved in the same period. Continue reading
2020 YTD Investment Returns
Below is a chart of investment returns for various instruments as published by Business Insider as of December 11, 2020. This includes our own Top Five of the Toronto Stock Exchange 60 (TSX 60) high P/E stocks.
see also:
Morningstar Income Bellwethers: December 2019
Summary: Low Yield crushes High Yield in the last year.
In the January 2020 Issue, Morningstar.com published their DividendInvestor which contains their Income Bellwether Watchlist. Below is the performance* of the stocks based on the top highest and lowest dividend yield from December 10, 2019 to December 11, 2020 (intraday).
As the data continues to demonstrate, low yield generally outperforms high yield. This has been resoundingly shown in our Dogs of the Dow in the period from 1996 to 2019.
*United Technologies was excluded from the results.
see also:
Posted in Dogs of the Dow, Income Bellwethers, Morningstar
NLO Market Score – Our Proprietary Market Timing Tool
The concept of a market indicator or market timing tool isn't a new concept. While compounding is THE most power force in investing, market timing tools come in a close second. As the old saying, "don't tell me what to buy, tell me when to buy".
Our team has developed a proprietary market timing tool which we are calling NLO Market Score. In its simplest form, the tool assigns a score ranging from -6 to +6 to the market and is similar to market breath.
For example, the market score reached -6 on March 12, 2020 when the S&P 500 was at 2,481. Since then, the market have risen nearly +50% in less than a year.
However, the 2008 bear market pushed the score to -6 early in October thus leaving little upside if you did a one time purchase. No single (or multiple) market indicator will be accurate enough to call market bottom and that goes for ours as well. That being said, we've back tested the indicator with a reasonable success rate which we define as any positive return.
Below, in table A, we have summarize the outcome of purchasing the S&P 500 when market score reaches -6. In table B, we show the details of the trade/transaction.
Table A:
Table B:
A close observation and you will notice that there are purchase dates within days of each other. To adjust for that, we have taken only the first indication that occurs within that year. The result are summarized in tables C and D.
Table C
Table D
As a long-term holder of equities, we are pleased with an extreme high success rate coupled with above average (>10%) annualized return.
Dogs of the Dow: 1992 Total Return
It has been asked what the total return for the respective Dogs of the Dow (high yield stocks) would be compared to the top Low Yield stocks, that we favor, if they were compounded over time.
In this series, we’ll identify the total return of the portfolio, as best we can, based on the Dogs of the Dow strategy as outlined in Michael O’Higgins book Beating the Dow. This strategy requires that the portfolio is switched out each year with a new set of ten high yielding stocks from the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Additionally, we will list the total return, within the limits of the available data, of the high yield and low yield stocks when ranked in the highest and lowest selecting the top ten in each list.
We are posting the total returns of the stocks from December 31, 1991 to the intraday price as of December 10, 2020.
As we have observed in the past, it becomes very challenging to generate total returns for High Yield stocks as part of the Dogs of the Dow strategy simply because so many of them go bankrupt. Four of the listed high yield stocks went bankrupt (Sears, General Motors, Woolworth, Eastman Kodak).
See Also:
Notes:
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Union Carbide bought by Dow Chemical (DD)
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AlliedSignal bought Honeywell (HON) and assumed Honeywell’s name and potentially their share data.
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Texaco was bought by Chevron (CVX)
Posted in Dogs of the Dow
Nikkei Upside Resistance Targets
Below are the upside resistance targets based on the work of Edson Gould and applied to the Nikkei 225 Index from 1989 to 2020.
As can be seen based on the conservative upside target of 22,983.45, once the level of the index got to the 22,937.60, there was a trading range established with a significant downside move before breaching the 28,401.78 mid-range target.
The new upside resistance level to watch for is 28,401.78. At this point, we should expect similar price action of trading in a range and/or declining sharply before the next surge to the upside.
Posted in Edson Gould, Japan, Nikkei, SRL, upside target
Dogs of the Dow: 1991 Total Return
It has been asked what the total return for the respective Dogs of the Dow (high yield stocks) would be compared to the top Low Yield stocks, that we favor, if they were compounded over time.
In this series, we’ll identify the total return of the portfolio, as best we can, based on the Dogs of the Dow strategy as outlined in Michael O’Higgins book Beating the Dow. This strategy requires that the portfolio is switched out each year with a new set of ten high yielding stocks from the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Additionally, we will list the total return, within the limits of the available data, of the high yield and low yield stocks when ranked in the highest and lowest selecting the top ten in each list.
Because our earliest list is 1991, we posting the total returns of the stocks from December 31, 1990 to the intraday price as of December 7, 2020.
As we have observed in the past, it becomes very challenging to generate total returns for High Yield stocks as part of the Dogs of the Dow strategy simply because so many of them go bankrupt. Notice that in the Low Yield group, only one of the ten stocks goes bankrupt (Bethlehem Steel) while four companies in the High Yield group (Sears, Westinghouse, Eastman Kodak, General Motors) filed bankruptcy.
See Also:
1991 Dogs of the Dow: One Year Returns
Notes:
*Union Carbide bought by Dow Chemical (DD)
*AlliedSignal bought Honeywell (HON) and assumed Honeywell’s name and potentially their share data.
*Texaco was bought by Chevron (CVX)
Posted in Dogs of the Dow
November: Nifty 50–Coppock Buy Signal
The application of Coppock Curve to individual stocks is a challenge. It has proven to be even more difficult applying it to international stocks which, in this case, are India stocks. However, based on our previous work, the Nifty 50 Index has the potential to yield tremendous returns (see here).
To recap, the Nifty 50 Index has had a great record with the latest buy signal at the end of August 2020. See chart and table below for reference.
The list below is the first of many that we will produce in the coming months. All stats are based on 1 year holding period. In the table above, the "success rate" is the occurrence when stock yield positive results after one (1) year. Sample size is the number of buy signals.
While average gains for some companies may be enticing, pay close attention to the loss column as that is the real risk which offsets the potential reward.
ICICI Bank is listed on NYSE under IBN.
Posted in National Stock Exchange of India, Nifty 50, NSE
Coppock Stocks: November 2020
The market had a strong November and pushed the indicator forward into the positive territory. As noted several months ago, the buy signal occurred in July 2020 which proved to be a well timed buy signal.
To better enhance this indicator, we have been collecting data on individual stocks and back testing the strategy. Several months ago, our team applied this strategy (refer to Coppock Curve Applied to Individual Stocks) to 4 companies with amazing result. The average return was +46% since May. We hope that the list below provides you with a viable starting point for your research. Continue reading
MetLife 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for MetLife Inc. (MET) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Eaton Vance 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for Eaton Vance Corp. (EV) for the next 10 years. Continue reading