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Nasdaq 100 Watch List: August 9, 2013
Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 10% of the 52-week low. This list is strictly for the purpose of researching whether or not the companies have viable business models.
Gold Stock Indicator
Posted in ABX, gold, gold bugs, Gold Stock Indicator, kgc
Review: Bank of Hawaii Meets Upside Target
On January 12, 2009, we made a recommendation of Bank of Hawaii (BOH). In that article (found here), we said the following:
"This would be the ideal buying point, however we must be ready to pull the trigger anywhere between $30.70 and $20.87."
The actual low for the stock was $25.70 on March 9, 2009. While technical analysis was dismissed at the time, there were and currently are some factors that we feel are important to review regarding Bank of Hawaii.
As pointed out in the 2009 article, BOH was a buy when the price declines in the face of above average trading volume (found here).
Currently, BOH has below average trading volume. This does not suggest that the stock cannot increase in value. However, each time volume was exceptionally high (1990, 2000, 2009, 2011), as the stock declined, the valuation figures were in favor of the investor buying BOH.
In addition, our Jan. 2009 article said the following:
“…BOH would trade at $56.84 if it were to revert to the mean based on 2008 earnings of $4.06 (The Bank of Hawaii has estimated fourth quarter 2008 earnings of $0.89).”
After recently closing as high as $56.81 on August 1, 2013 with a possible double top in place, a decline below $54.70 could indicated the trend is down for the intermediate term. With the upside target having been met, we’d wait to see if a meaningful decline ensue before accumulating additional shares of Bank of Hawaii.
Posted in Bank of Hawaii, BOH, review
Gold Stock Indicator
As goes the market, so goes gold and gold stocks. We got the opportunity to see this action in spades today.
Dividend Watch List: August 2, 2013
Below are the 8 companies on our U.S. Dividend Watch List that are within 11% of their respective 52-week lows. Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and rigorous due diligence.
Review: Ctrip.com Emerges from the Ashes
On our December 16, 2011 Nasdaq 100 Watch List, we reviewed the prospects of Ctrip.com (CTRP). In that assessment we said the following (found here):
“Ctrip.com International (CTRP) is on a pace to replicate the performance from the high in April 2008 to the low of January 2009 which equaled a loss of 72%. A similar decline in CTRP from the high of $50.57 would bring the price down to $14.16. Suffice to say, the stock ‘only’ needs to decline another $8.94 or 38% from the current price of 23.10. This seems very easy considering the high volatility of Chinese stocks. We believe that unless CTRP is summarily dismissed from the Nasdaq 100 index, there may yet be life in this company.”
Amazingly, Ctrip.com fell equally as much in the period from the 2010 high to the most recent low as it did from April 2008 high to the January 2009 low. Our preliminary review of Ctrip.com at the low on December 16, 2011 at $23.10 suggested that the stock could drop as low as $10 a share. However, this never happened as Ctrip.com declined as low as $12.44 and then rebounded.
Today, Ctrip.com’s stock increased as much as +23% as it was reported that the company beat analyst earnings expectations. For those who purchased CTRP at $14.16 and below, the gains of over +67% need to be secured. Investors seeking to build a diversified portfolio should sell the principal and reinvest elsewhere. Potential investment opportunities could be found on our latest U.S. Dividend Watch List, Nasdaq 100 Watch List or Canadian Watch List.
Posted in CTRP
Review: Just Energy Meets Resistance
On our February 18, 2013 Canadian Dividend Watch List, we reviewed the prospects for Just Energy (JE.TO) and said the following:
“On the technical front, Just Energy is fast approaching the 2009 low of $6.60 after breaking below the November 2012 low of $8.00. There appears to be tremendous technical support at the $6.00 level going all the way back to 2003. If you’re interested in this stock, consideration of purchases of Just Energy should be entered into in three phases, once at $6.60, $6.00 and $4.00.”
Since our February 18th posting, Just Energy has exhibited the following price movement:
For whatever reason, Just Energy adhered to the “tremendous technical support at the $6.00 level .” As we said, purchases at $6.60 and $6.00 would have resulted in a theoretical average purchase price of $6.30. Based on the current price, Just Energy has gained +17.01% on a total return basis (price appreciation and dividend payment) in a six month period and +34% on an annualized basis.
It is times like these that we recommend selling the principal in order to avoid watching exceptional annualized returns evaporate. We are resigned to the possibility that $8.00 could be a technical resistance level. Additionally, the $6 support level has moved down to the March low of $5.89. No use getting fancy about exceptional gains as the dividend has already been cut -32% since our February posting (found here).
Posted in JE.TO
Dividend Watch List: July 26, 2013
Below are the 7 companies on our U.S. Dividend Watch List that are within 11% of their respective 52-week lows. Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and rigorous due diligence.
Nasdaq 100 Watch List: July 26, 2013
Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 10% of the 52-week low. This list is strictly for the purpose of researching whether or not the companies have viable business models. Continue reading
Dow Theory and the Unemployment Rate
For some, the economy has not fully recovered until the unemployment rate is “back where it was” when the economy was booming. Unfortunately, there are key issues with this notion. Continue reading
Posted in Dow Theory, Unemployment
Review: Baidu on Pace to Meet Upside Target
On July 24, 2013, Baidu (BIDU) announced that earnings and revenue beat expectations while raising their 3rd quarter expectations above current analyst estimates. We had previously said that Baidu needed to exceed the $112.97 level before being able to achieve our next upside target. In two trading sessions since or recommendation of the stock on April 26, 2013 at $85 (found here), Baidu struggled to exceed $111 (July 18th and 19th).
However, at the end of trading during the regular session on July 24th, Baidu closed at $113.37. As the news came out about earnings and revenue, the stock catapulted to close at $129.09 in after-hour trading. at this point, we firmly believe that Baidu is set to achieve our previously indicated upside target of $140. A doubling of the stock price since our recommendation of BIDU is not out of the question (within the year from the $85 price). Get your sell orders ready (principal only), no use getting greedy on gains of +50% in 3 months. Below is the updated SRL for BIDU.
Posted in BIDU, Edson Gould, SRL