Another week of declines for gold and gold stocks. Gold fell –1.13% while gold stocks declined –1.76%.
The Gold Stock Indicator is treading water based on the otherwise listless action of gold and gold stocks. However, we’d like to review our commentary on gold from April 8, 2014. At that time, we said the following:
The market took a turn on Friday and tumbled more than 1%. At the end of the week, S&P 500 was off by 1% and the Dow was off by 1.3%. The pull back is a small drop in the larger scheme of thing. The overall market remain in the upward trend with the Dow sitting well above the low of 16,117 in late 2014. However, the weakness in the market pushed the number companies on our watch list up slightly from the previous week. There are 64 companies on our watch list that one could consider. Continue reading
Gold and gold stocks parted ways in the last week. Gold was increased slightly while gold stocks declined –1.72%.
The Coppock Curve is one of the technical indicators that we focus on for long-term buy signals for the stock market. The Coppock Curve is only useful as a BUY indicator when the chart goes from positive territory to the negative territory then turns decidedly upward. As previously indicated, the Coppock Curve does not provide SELL signals in any way.
Once the signal turns upward (while in the negative territory), investors should consider buying stocks at the beginning of the month. Our last “buy” indication came at the end of April 2009. Anyone who purchased the Dow Jones Industrial ETF (DIA) on the first trading day of May 2009, they would have gained +109% in the process (based on the closing price of March 2015).
While the curve remain positive, the direction and the slope is negative. We would get excited if and when this indicator reach the negative zone. We will certainly update our readers when that time comes.
Posted in Coppock Curve, Coppock Index
Performance Review
Below is the 1-year performance of the Canadian dividend stocks from our April 18, 2014 watch list.
| symbol | name | 2014 | 2015 | % chg |
| EMP-A.TO | Empire Company Limited | 65.30 | 91.84 | 40.64% |
| D-UN.TO | Dream Office Real Estate Investment Trust | 29.60 | 27.75 | -6.25% |
| TA.TO | TransAlta Corp. | 13.13 | 11.95 | -8.99% |
| CAR-UN.TO | Canadian Apartment Properties REIT | 21.37 | 29.16 | 36.45% |
| CUF-UN.TO | Cominar REIT | 19.01 | 19.33 | 1.68% |
| CJR-B.TO | Corus Entertainment Inc. | 24.31 | 17.07 | -29.78% |
| FTS.TO | Fortis Inc. | 32.01 | 39.15 | 22.31% |
| NWC.TO | North West Company Inc. | 24.25 | 25.52 | 5.24% |
| FCR.TO | First Capital Realty Inc. | 17.92 | 19.74 | 10.16% |
The performance of the entire list averaged +7.94% compared to the +6.55% gain in the Toronto Stock Exchange index. The top five stocks on the list averaged a gain of +12.71% and are charted below. Empire Co. & Canadian Apartment carried the list while Corus Entertainment suffered the largest decline in the last year.
Canadian Dividend Watch List
Below is the April 2015 watch list of stocks based on the closing price of April 15, 2015.
Below are 57 companies with strong dividend record and is trading near its yearly low. It's important to consider the price which one begin to accumulate these dividend paying companies. Continue reading
Performance Review
Below is the performance of the stocks from the April 11, 2014 Nasdaq 100 watch list compared to the Nasdaq 100 Index gain of +28.29%. The entire list gained +23.49% while the top five stocks gained +31.76%.
| Symbol | Name | 2014 | 2015 | % chg |
| SHLD | Sears Holdings | 32.62 | 42.93 | 31.61% |
| BBBY | Bed Bath & Beyond | 63.72 | 73.43 | 15.24% |
| CTRX | Catamaran Corp. | 38.89 | 59.61 | 53.28% |
| VRSK | Verisk Analytics, Inc. | 56.55 | 72.86 | 28.84% |
| SRCL | Stericycle, Inc. | 109.33 | 141.93 | 29.82% |
| SIRI | Sirius XM Holdings Inc. | 3.16 | 3.95 | 25.00% |
| CTXS | Citrix Systems, Inc. | 54.56 | 63.8 | 16.94% |
| DISCA | Discovery Comm. | 39.69 | 33.04 | -16.75% |
| SPLS | Staples, Inc. | 11.83 | 16.72 | 41.34% |
| MAT | Mattel, Inc. | 37.82 | 24.23 | -35.93% |
| COST | Costco Wholesale | 112.08 | 149.63 | 33.50% |
| CHRW | CH Robinson Worldwide | 54.87 | 72.06 | 31.33% |
| DLTR | Dollar Tree, Inc. | 50.74 | 82.87 | 63.32% |
| LBTYA | Liberty Global plc | 38.56 | 52.55 | 36.28% |
| NTAP | NetApp, Inc. | 35.97 | 35.47 | -1.39% |
The actual change versus the analyst estimated change is represented below.
Worth noting is that of the top five stocks expected to outperform, none of the stocks exceeded the analyst expectations. Alternatively, of the five stocks to perform the worst, four of the five stocks substantially out performed the analyst expectations.
Nasdaq Watch List
Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are on our radar.
In the past week, gold has declined less that –1% while the gold and silver stock index has declined by –1.72%.
The Gold Stock Indicator nudged slightly higher in the last week. However, the long term perspective outlines the relative level of the indicator.
Performance Review
Below is the performance of the nine stocks from our March 14, 2014 Nasdaq 100 watch list compared to the performance of the Nasdaq 100 Index gain of +20.50% over the last year.
| symbol | Name | 2014 | 2015 | % chg |
| CTSH | Cognizant Technology Solutions | 50.25 | 63 | 25.37% |
| CHRW | CH Robinson Worldwide Inc. | 51.14 | 73.03 | 42.80% |
| SYMC | Symantec Corporation | 20.16 | 23.35 | 15.82% |
| SPLS | Staples, Inc. | 11.3 | 16.11 | 42.57% |
| CTRX | Catamaran Corporation | 45.87 | 48.32 | 5.34% |
| MAT | Mattel, Inc. | 37.28 | 22.61 | -39.35% |
| CSCO | Cisco Systems, Inc. | 21.35 | 27.13 | 27.07% |
| average | 17.09% |
The listed stocks only averaged gains of +17.09% in the last year. However, the top five stocks averaged gains of +26.38%. The two top performing stocks, CH Robinson Worldwide and Staples, were highlighted as being of interest to as the time (we bought shares of CHRW). Of CHRW, we said the following:
“According to Edson Gould’s Altimeter, Robinson Worldwide is trading at an equivalent price to the 2009 low.”
The Altimeter appeared to reflect the fact that the stock was reasonably valued. CHRW was up as much as +50% in the last year.
Regarding Staples (SPLS), we said:
“After bottoming in the last half of 2012, Staples increased by +52% before collapsing to the current level. Dow Theory suggests that this is a classic retest of the prior lows.”
Since the March 2014 posting, Staples (SPLS) has increased as much as +68%.
Nasdaq 100 Watch List
Posted in CHRW, Nasdaq 100 Watch List, SPLS
Watch List Performance Review
In our ongoing review of the NLO Dividend Watch List, we have taken the top five stocks on our list from March 28, 2014 and have checked the performance one year later. The top five companies on that list can be seen in the table below.
| Symbol | Name | 2013 Price | 2014 Price | % change |
| FDO | Family Dollar Stores | 57.76 | 79.45 | 37.6% |
| CHRW | C.H. Robinson Worldwide | 50.89 | 73.03 | 43.5% |
| ED | Consolidated Edison | 53.17 | 59.80 | 12.5% |
| ERIE | Erie Indemnity Company | 68.57 | 86.39 | 26.0% |
| BMS | Bemis Co Inc | 38.34 | 46.17 | 20.4% |
| Average | 28.0% | |||
| DJI | Dow Jones Industrial | 16,323.06 | 17,712.66 | 8.5% |
| SPX | S&P 500 | 1,857.62 | 2,061.02 | 10.9% |
Our top five did amazingly well and outperformed the market by +18%. The average gain for the top five stocks was +28%. Family Dollar (FDO) gained an amazing +37.6% in one year. This is after a fund manager, Andy Matthes of Teton Valley Fund, suggested shorting the stock (found here). The biggest pop came after Dollar General (DG) bid for Family Dollar but that bid was rejected.
The best performer was C.H. Robinson (CHRW) which nearly gained +50%. The logistic broker may have benefited from the drop in oil. Oil has fallen -52% while C.H. Robinson rose +43%.
U.S Dividend Watch List: March 27, 2015
The foundation of our investment strategy is to invest in companies that pay consistent stream of dividends with a history of payout increases. The book that help set the stage for this process was Dividends Don't Lie: Finding Value in Blue-Chip Stocks. With the stage set, our full list consists of 72 companies and 20 companies are trading at or near the low. Continue reading
Since our last posting on March 13, 2015, gold (as represented by the SPDR Gold Shares) has increased by +3.84% while the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Stock Index has increased by +3.40%.
On March 25, 2015, we executed the following transactions:
Posted in Transaction Alert
The market roared back this week and pushed the S&P 500 above the 2,100 mark once again. The Nasdaq also closed the week above 5,000. However, the energy market continued to be in turmoil. Light sweet crude closed the week at $46.45 thus you will likely see many energy and industrial companies on our watch list. All-in-all, there are 54 companies that are on our watch list this week. Continue reading
Below is the performance of the stocks found on our March 2014 watch list:
| symbol | 2015 | 2014 | % chg | |
| TLM.TO | Talisman Energy Inc. | 9.55 | 10.86 | -12.06% |
| FTS.TO | Fortis Inc. | 38.93 | 31.28 | 24.46% |
| TA.TO | TransAlta Corp. | 11.77 | 12.68 | -7.18% |
| FCR.TO | First Capital Realty Inc. | 19.89 | 17.71 | 12.31% |
| CWT-UN.TO | Calloway REIT | 29.88 | 25.8 | 15.81% |
| CAR-UN.TO | Canadian Apartment Properties REIT | 28.4 | 20.8 | 36.54% |
| EMP-A.TO | Empire Company Limited | 90.77 | 65.84 | 37.86% |
| CJR-B.TO | Corus Entertainment Inc. | 18.41 | 24.24 | -24.05% |
| BNS.TO | The Bank of Nova Scotia | 63.46 | 64.35 | -1.38% |
| D-UN.TO | Dream Office Real Estate Investment Trust | 26.14 | 28.5 | -8.28% |
| CUF-UN.TO | Cominar REIT | 19.3 | 18.21 | 5.99% |
| LB.TO | Laurentian Bank of Canada | 48.3 | 45.73 | 5.62% |
The chart below shows how the analyst estimates in blue varied compared to the actual performance in red after a year.
As is frequently the case, the analyst estimates did not quite match the actual performance with the exception of CWT-UN.TO, CAR-UN.TO and EMP-A.TO.
Posted in Canadian Dividend Watch List