The Dow Jones Industrial Average Altimeter from 1920 to the present is posted below.
- Japan
- Market Indicator
- Price Momentum Indicators
- Richard Russell
- Silver
- Speed Resistance Lines
- U.S. Dividend Watch List
Analyst Estimates: U.S. Dividend Watch List
Below are the price projections based on analyst earnings estimates for our recent U.S. Dividend Watch List dated September 9, 2016. These estimates project the price change for the respective stocks over the next 12 months and the risk profiles associated with the estimates.
U.S Dividend Watch List: September 9, 2016
The S&P 500 lost nearly -2% for the week. While the drop on Friday appears to be dramatic (at -2.43%), the market is only about 3% off the all-time high. This is a great opportunity, in our view, to start building your personal watch list. Below are 17 companies on our dividend watch list. Continue reading
Posted in Dividend Achiever Watch List, Dividend Achievers, Dividend Watch List
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Dow Jones Downside Targets
Below are the downside targets for the Dow Jones Industrial Average applying Dow’s Theory and the Dow Jones Transportation Average applying Edson Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines.
Posted in 50% principle, Dow Fair Value, Dow Industrials, Dow Transports, downside
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Dow’s Theory on Values and Information
"Wall Street offers many opportunities to those who know values and possess some capital. But until people learn that some stocks are cheap at $200 per share an others dear at 2 cents per share, and until people learn that those who really know something about the market do not need to peddle their information for a living, it is to be feared that much money will continue to be lost both in and out of Wall Street (Dow, Charles H. Review & Outlook. Wall Street Journal. September 10, 1902.).”
Posted in Dow's Value Theory
Greenhill Slopes Downward
In a recent article found on Bloomberg.com titled “Greenhill Adds Ex-Analyst Trone to Revive Wall Street Confidence”. We’re not so sure that a new investor relations rep is going to be that critical in reviving “Wall Street Confidence.” On July 22, 2011, we proposed the following to Greenhill & Co. (GHL) to gain greater confidence of investors and employees alike:
“Cutting the dividend would put Greenhill & Co. (GHL) in a better financial position to retain the staff necessary to get the mergers and acquisitions done. We recognize that the dividend, with a payout that exceeds current earnings, would further undermine the current stock price and pay less cash to the largest shareholders. However, maintaining such a high dividend leaves less cash available to pass on to their most valuable asset, the employees.”
In response to our request to cut the dividend, CEO Scott Bok replied by saying, in November 9, 2011:
“‘you’d have to waterboard me’ to persuade [me] to cut the firm’s quarterly dividend.”
Since July 2011, GHL has not cut the dividend and thus far it has been reflected in the stock price.
GHL has declined –54% which appears to be the tax on those seeking the dividend at the expense of the future growth of the company. The company can certainly turn things around, however, with a dividend payout ratio that exceeds earnings, the outcome seems obvious.
Posted in GHL
Transaction Alert
The NLO team executed the following transaction(s):
Federal Reserve: A Bit Player
When talking to any number of clear headed and knowledgeable market analysts, it often shocks me at the confidence and certainty with which the Federal Reserve Bank is credited with the rebound of financials markets from 2009 to 2016. It appears as though this assessment is guided by faith alone and yet there are numbers that seem to support the claim. This article cannot dispel the religious reverence for the Federal Reserve’s apparent powers. However, it is hoped that we can demonstrate that the Federal Reserve may be a bit player on a grand stage of market forces.
Nasdaq 100 Watch List: September 2016
Performance Review
Below is the performance of our Nasdaq 100 Watch List dated September 11, 2015. In addition, we have broken out the performance to the various categories that we assigned at that time.
The stocks that were favored by analysts to perform the best (high expectations) were unable to exceed the stocks that we highlighted as likely to do better than average. Stocks highlighted as “average risk” and “high risk” far exceeded the performance of the Nasdaq 100 index and notched better gains than “high expectation” stocks.
The worst three stocks were Western Digital (WDC), Bed Bath & Beyond and Mylan (MYL) at –41.69%, –24.91% and –17.47%, respectively. the best three stocks were Applied Materials (AMAT), Autodesk (ADSK) and Yahoo (YHOO) at +93.55%, +46.74% and +37.73%, respectively.
Ritchie Brothers: Now What?
In our June 12, 2016 posting titled “Ritchie Brother: Inflection Point?” we said the following:
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“…it appears that [Ritchie Brothers] RBA is at a threshold that has not been exceeded since early 2011”
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“…the stock could rise to $48.00.”
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the stock needs “…some kind of reprieve from the most recent parabolic move in the price”
Since June 2016, RBA has managed to trace out the following price action (in red):
As the last bullet point indicated and the price chart has reflected, the parabolic move was resolved with a decline to the recent low of $27.27. Unfortunately, we now need another parabolic move from $27.27 to the recent jump above $35 to be resolved in some way or another.
Another item that was pointed out was the possibility that RBA could exceed a level in Edson Gould’s Altimeter, a level that had not been exceeded since 2011. The recent price action since June 2016 has allowed this to occur as well.
We’re still thinking that the rise to $48 is possible. The recent news of the acquisition by RBA of IronPlanet makes it more possible to hit our target. However, the recent price activity of going from $27 to $35 overnight based on an acquisition simply means that achieving the $48 target will take more time than we had anticipated.
Posted in Altimeter, Edson Gould, RBA
Downside Targets for Craft Brew Alliance
The latest run for Craft Brew Alliance (BREW) from the low set in November 2015 to the most recent peak on August 2016 requires that we check for the downside targets.
A parabolic peak is one thing. However, having them play out in a consistent fashion is something else. In the case of BREW, we’ve had two prior parabolic peaks since 2008 that were true to form and function. In the period from the 2008 low to the 2010 peak, BREW declined to below the mid-range Speed Resistance Line [SRL]. In the period from the 2008 low to the 2013 peak, BREW declined below the extreme downside target. In the chart above, we have the following downside targets:
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conservative: $12.57
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mid-range: $10.02
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extreme: $7.47
Although there is no assurance that the stock needs to decline to the referenced downside targets, any parabolic move must be watch closely as entropy will kick in at some point. In this case, we believe that the ascending conservative target is a lock. With established history as an indication, the mid-range target looks to be a safe “bet” as well. We’ll check back in on this as more time has passed.
Posted in BREW, Edson Gould, entropy, parabolic, SRL
Transaction Alert
The NLO team executed the following transaction(s):
Gold Stock Indicator: August 2016
During the month of August the price of gold declined –2.28% while the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Stock Index declined –14.16%.
In this posting, we’ll highlight an area that we noted as a weakness in the run-up from the January 2016 low. We’ll also put Barron’s recommendation of GoldCorp (GG) into perspective with an approach for investors to apply when trying figure out which gold stocks to consider. Finally, as usual, we close with the performance of our current gold stock holdings.