Below are the valuation targets for People’s United Financial Inc. (PBCT) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
- Japan
- Market Indicator
- Price Momentum Indicators
- Richard Russell
- Silver
- Speed Resistance Lines
- U.S. Dividend Watch List
Chart of the Day: Rennova Health Inc.
According to Yahoo!Finance, “Rennova Health, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides a suite of healthcare related products and services to healthcare providers in the United States. The company operates in three segments: Laboratory Services, Supportive Software Solutions, and Decision Support and Informatics Operations. It provides toxicology, clinical pharmacogenetics, and esoteric testing services. The company also offers Advantage, a HIPAA compliant software; Clinlab, a Windows-based Web-enabled laboratory information management system; and Medical Mime, a suite of solutions, which include an optimized Electronic health records (EHR) for substance abuse and behavioral health providers, a dictation-based ambulatory EHR for physician practices, and advanced transcription services. In addition, it develops and markets interpretation and decision support solutions that enhance cancer diagnoses and treatment through actionable data analytics and reporting for oncologists and their patients.”
Rennova Health traded from November 21, 2008 to January 2018 at –99% below the price of the peak established in 1995.
The Study of Failure
"The marvelous thing about the stock market is this--it's always there. Make a mistake, and you can call your broker and blow out that mistake in 30 seconds (try doing that in your own business). Miss a move, and it's just a matter of time before a second and a third and a fourth opportunity arrives. Sell too soon, and you can buy back in a few minutes. (Russell, Richard. Dow Theory Letters. May 15, 1991. page 3.)"
Posted in Chart of the Day, RNVA, The Study of Failure
Dow’s theory on Dividend Payout Ratio
Charles H. Dow discusses reasonable dividend payout ratio:
“Common stocks can hardly be expected to sell up to the same level of return of the greater insecurity of dividends. Union Pacific may earn 5% or more on the common stock, but it does not follow that 5% will be paid, and if it were paid, the price would still reflect the knowledge, that whenever earnings decrease the loss would fall upon the common stock. It would perhaps be fair to reason that a common stock on which 5% was being earned would sell at something like a 3% level of value (Dow, Charles H. Wall Street Journal. Review and Outlook. March 27, 1900).”
Who was Charles H. Dow?
“Charles Henry Dow was an American journalist who co-founded Dow Jones & Company with Edward Jones and Charles Bergstresser. Dow also founded The Wall Street Journal, which has become one of the most respected financial publications in the world. He also invented the Dow Jones Industrial Average as part of his research into market movements. He developed a series of principles for understanding and analyzing market behavior which later became known as Dow theory, the groundwork for technical analysis (source: Wikipedia.org).”
Posted in Dow's Value Theory
Chart of the Day: Delcath Systems Inc.
According to Yahoo!Finance, “Delcath Systems, Inc., an interventional oncology company, focuses on the treatment of primary and metastatic liver cancers. The company is developing melphalan hydrochloride for Injection for use with the Delcath hepatic delivery system to administer high-dose chemotherapy to the liver.”
Worth noting is the point when Delcath Systems reached a decline of –99% from the peak by June 2014. That means that for the last 4 years, the stock has been trading –99% below the peak.
The Study of Failure
"Investing is 'a business of making mistakes--the only difference between the winners and the losers is that the winners make small mistakes while the losers make disasterous mistakes. (Russell, Richard. Dow Theory Letters. February 6, 1991. page 2.)'"
Posted in Chart of the Day, DCTH, The Study of Failure
Interest Rate Monitor: November 2018
On November 21, 2015, we said the following:
“While a Fed rate increase is what everyone is waiting for, history suggests that Fed policy (government regulated) follows short-term Treasuries (market driven).
“In a barely perceptible way, the chart above demonstrates that all Federal Reserve rate increases were preceded by a rise in the 3-month Treasury. The blue arrows indicate the reversal in the declining trend before 3-month Treasuries increased. From this point, we can easily see that the Federal Reserve’s discount rate follows to the upside not long after. We’ve only included the point in the interest rate cycle that corresponds to the phase that we are entering, coming from an all-time low to an eventual all-time high.”
We are clearly in the early stages of a secular rising trend in interest rates. As noted above, the direction is up for the foreseeable future. What concerns us now, as always, is the cyclical declines which can be dramatic. Below we trace out the first decline in the previous secular trend and see what that would look like in the current rate environment. Continue reading
Chart of the Day: Parker Drilling
According to Yahoo!Finance, “Parker Drilling Company (PKD) provides contract drilling and drilling-related services, and rental tools and services to the energy industry. It operates through two business lines, Drilling Services and Rental Tools Services.”
The Study of Failure
"Through many years of continuing mistakes, errors and blows to my ego, I’ve learned the truth of the market adage which states,'The market can do anything.' (Russell, Richard. Dow Theory Letters. September 30, 1977. Page 2.)."
Posted in Chart of the Day, PKD, The Study of Failure
Ryder Systems 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for Ryder Systems Inc. (R) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Chart of the Day: iFresh Inc.
According to Yahoo!Finance, “iFresh Inc. operates a network of grocery supermarket chains in the north-eastern United States. The company's chains provide vegetables, seafood, meat, fruits, snacks, seasonings, and other products.”
The Study of Failure
"The good things we do in this world take care of themselves; it’s the mistakes that we can potentially learn most from (Russell, Richard. Dow Theory Letters. January 16, 1976. Page 2.)."
Posted in Chart of the Day, IFMK, The Study of Failure
Swiss National Bank Downside Targets
From the stunning peak of $8,700 in April 2018, Swiss National Bank has declined –36.78% as of November 13, 2018. What might be different about this time, versus when SNBN was at $4,449 or $5,940 is that when the price declined it never achieved the conservative downside target of the Speed Resistance Lines [SRL].
| peak | extreme | mid-range | conservative |
| $8,700.00 | $2,900.00 | $3,657.00 | $4,414.00 |
| $4,449.00 | $1,483.00 | $2,240.00 | $2,997.00 |
| $5,940.00 | $1,980.00 | $2,737.00 | $3,494.00 |
The latest decline has hit the conservative downside target at $4,414 and is in the process of retesting that level, as seen below.
Watch the $5,500 level closely as a continued decline could have broad reaching impact on some popular tech stocks.
Posted in Edson Gould, SNBN, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL
Allstate 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for Allstate Corp. (ALL) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
ConAgra 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for ConAgra (CAG) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Avery Dennison Corp. 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for Avery Dennison Corp. (AVY) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Chart of the Day: Sanchez Energy
According to Yahoo!Finance, “Sanchez Energy Corporation, an independent exploration and production company, focuses on the acquisition and development of U.S. onshore unconventional oil and natural gas resources.”
The Study of Failure
"There never was a mistake made in the market that I couldn’t imagine making myself (Russell, Richard. Dow Theory Letters. January 16, 1976. Page 1.)."
Posted in Chart of the Day, SN, The Study of Failure
General Mills 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for General Mills (GIS) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Posted in 10-year Targets, Altimeter, GIS
Chart of the Day: Avinger Inc.
According to Yahoo!Finance, “Avinger, Inc., a commercial-stage medical device company, designs, manufactures, and sells image-guided and catheter-based systems used by physicians to treat patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD) in the United States and Europe. It develops lumivascular platform that integrates optical coherence tomography visualization with interventional catheters to provide real-time intravascular imaging during the treatment portion of PAD procedures.”
The Study of Failure
"I’ve often stated that I’ve learned more studying other advisors’ mistakes than I’ve learned from watching their successes (Russell, Richard. Dow Theory Letters. January 16, 1976. page 1.)."
Posted in AVGR, Chart of the Day, The Study of Failure