We’ve been following the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) since it was known as the Dow-Jones UBS Commodity Index. In that time, We’ve never seen the persistent action that has been on display since May 2016. Continue reading
Below are the valuation targets for Xilinx Inc. (XLNX) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Below are the valuation targets for The York Water Co. (YORW) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Review
On September 16, 2018, when ShotSpotter (SSTI) was trading at $62.81, we said the following:
“Based on the closing price of $62.81, we have the following downside targets:
$22.05”
The updated charting of the downside targets shows that SSTI managed to decline as low as the mid-range target of $28.55, as seen in the chart below.
We understand that the decline in the stock was merely coincidental. However, we do take some satisfaction in having a high level of coincidence with a surprising number of stocks that experience parabolic moves to the upside.
In the following assessment, we attempt to highlight the upside targets that most likely will experience resistance on the way back to the prior closing high of $63.12.
Upside Resistance Levels
Based on the decline from the peak at $63.12, SSTI has the following upside resistance levels:
Our experience is that most investors are anticipating a retest of the previous peak as their investment goal. However, in order to get to that goal, the stock price must run the gauntlet of exceeding the indicated upside targets. Each of the levels indicated are critical resistance levels that should see a material decline in the stock price. Exceeding each level lends support to the stock price going to the next level.
A reassessment of the technicals is provided upon request if the stock exceeds $63.12.
Posted in SSTI, upside target
Below are the valuation targets for American States Water (AWR) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
According to Yahoo!Finance, “ImmunoCellular Therapeutics, Ltd., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, develops immune-based therapies for the treatment of various cancers. Its products include ICT-107, a dendritic cell (DC) immunotherapy for the treatment of diagnosed glioblastoma multiforme (GBM); ICT-140, a DC-based immunotherapy targets tumor associated antigens on ovarian cancer; and ICT-121, a DC-based immunotherapy targeting CD133 markers and CSCs to treat recurrent GBM and other solid tumor cancers.”
The Study of Failure
"'Failure, that is, struck to the core of one's identity; as Cathy Matson explains in a succinct phrase, ‘Business setbacks were attributed to personal failure rather than to social forces'(KOPEC, ANDREW. “Irving, Ruin, and Risk.” Early American Literature, vol. 48, no. 3, 2013, pp. 709–735. JSTOR, JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/24476334.)"
Posted in Chart of the Day, IMUC, The Study of Failure
Below are the valuation targets for Alliant Energy Corp. (LNT) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
According to Yahoo!Finance, “Aradigm Corporation (ARDM), a specialty pharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of products for the treatment and prevention of severe respiratory diseases. Its lead development candidates are proprietary formulations of the potent antibiotic ciprofloxacin, including Linhaliq and Lipoquin that are delivered by inhalation for the management of infections associated with severe respiratory diseases, including non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis, cystic fibrosis, and non-tuberculosis mycobacterium.”
The Study of Failure
"Low ambition offends Americans even more than low achievement." —Scott Sandage, Born Losers: A History of Failure in America
Posted in ARDM, Chart of the Day, The Study of Failure
Below are the valuation targets for United Technologies (UTX) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
According to Yahoo!Finance, “Bridgeline Digital (BLIN), Inc. operates as a digital engagement company in the United States. The company's iAPPS platform enables companies and developers to create Websites, Web applications, and online stores. It offers iAPPS Experience Manager, a marketing automation engine and content management system; iAPPS Content Manager that enables non-technical users to create, edit, and publish content via a browser-based interface; and iAPPS Commerce, an online B2B and B2C e-commerce solution, which allows users to manage domestic and international commerce initiatives.”
The Study of Failure
"The underlying problem is that society measures success by how much money someone has, as demonstrated by how many status symbols he has accumulated. When stripped of these status symbols he feels naked, as though the world can now see that he's a failure after all (Lang, Dennis. “Mangoes Falling: A Recession Dialogue.” Columbia: A Journal of Literature and Art, no. 48, 2011, pp. 115–130. JSTOR, JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/41951774.)."
Posted in Chart of the Day, The Study of Failure
Below are the valuation targets for Teleflex Inc. (TFX) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
General Moly (GMO) is described by Yahoo!Finance as “…together with its subsidiary, Eureka Moly, LLC, engages in the exploration, development, and mining of mineral properties in the United States. The company explores for molybdenum and copper deposits.”
The Study of Failure
"This was an era in which the meanings of success and failure, the legitimacy of capitalist exchange, and the very 'rules' of capitalism were up for debate. (Luskey, Brian P. “Warranted Speculations.” Reviews in American History, vol. 36, no. 3, 2008, pp. 357–364. JSTOR, JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/40210934.)"
Posted in Chart of the Day, GMO, The Study of Failure
In the period from October 3, 2018 to November 23, 2018, the price of Texas Pacific Land Trust (TPL) has declined from a recent high of $871.99 to the current level of $551.99, a decline of –36.69%. The question on everyone’s mind is, “how low will the price go?”
Using past as precedent, we looked at the Speed Resistance Lines [SRL] as outlined by Edson Gould in the period from 2003 to 2016. First, we remind our readers that under the extraordinary period of panic, from June 29, 2007 to March 9, 2009, TPL saw a decline of -72%.
Using the 2009 low, we see the $25.65 level as the pivot and the $230.82 level as the parabolic peak. Those points give us the following SRLs:
The entire decline was –53.87% and saw the price of TPL achieve the conservative downside target of $102.59 and with the passage of time the price almost accomplished the $89.77 mid-range target.
Fast forward to November 23, 2018 where we see the peak of TPL at $871.99. If we allow for only the conservative downside target to be achieved then TPL will go as low as $397.12. However, remember back in December 9, 2010 when we said, in an article titled “Real Estate: The Verdict is In,” “…we feel that real estate has a six to nine year stretch of rising prices or ‘trading’ in a range and decreased foreclosures.”
“…we feel that real estate has a six to nine year stretch of rising prices or ‘trading’ in a range and decreased foreclosures.”
Since our prescient article in 2010, in the face of shadow inventory claims that were supposed to keep prices down, we have seen a clear rising trend in the price of real estate and a significant decrease in foreclosures. Now, with the passage of 8 years, we believe that TPL will push the limits of downside action and achieve the extreme downside target as seen in the chart below. Continue reading
Posted in Edson Gould, parabolic, real estate, SRL, Texas Pacific Land, TPL
Charles H. Dow’s thoughts on the impact of earnings expectations
"A general belief that a stock is going to earn a given rate is sometimes as effective speculatively as the actual demonstration of such earnings (Dow, Charles H. Wall Street Journal. Review and Outlook. March 27, 1900)."
Who was Charles H. Dow?
“Charles Henry Dow was an American journalist who co-founded Dow Jones & Company with Edward Jones and Charles Bergstresser. Dow also founded The Wall Street Journal, which has become one of the most respected financial publications in the world. He also invented the Dow Jones Industrial Average as part of his research into market movements. He developed a series of principles for understanding and analyzing market behavior which later became known as Dow theory, the groundwork for technical analysis (source: Wikipedia.org).”
Posted in Dow's Value Theory
Palatin Technologies, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, develops targeted, receptor-specific therapeutics for the treatment of various diseases in the United States. The company's principal product is Vyleesi, an on demand subcutaneous injectable product that has completed Phase III clinical studies for the treatment of premenopausal women with acquired, generalized hypoactive sexual desire disorder.
The Study of Failure
"We need the loser to sort out our own defeats and dreams... failure is not the dark side of the American Dream; it is the foundation of it. (Lichtenstein, Alex. “Always Be Closing.” Labour / Le Travail, vol. 57, 2006, pp. 193–199. JSTOR, JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/25149671.)"
Posted in Chart of the Day, The Study of Failure