Below are the valuation targets for The Kroger Co. (KR) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
- Japan
- Market Indicator
- Price Momentum Indicators
- Richard Russell
- Silver
- Speed Resistance Lines
- U.S. Dividend Watch List
Barrick Gold 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for Barrick Gold Corp. (GOLD) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Interest Rate Monitor: June 2019
On April 23, 2019, we said the following of interest rates:
“If the current run of stability in rates is anything like the period of 2015 to 2016, we should see a sharp drop in rates…”
At the time, rates had been in a trading range, as seen below.
The drop in the 3-month Treasury has been nothing short of phenomenal. However, the question on everyone’s mind is, how far down? We attempt to address this in the following commentary. Continue reading
Chart of the Day: New England Electric Systems
Below is the annual 52-week low for New England Electric Systems (NES) from 1958 to 1967. We’ve also included the 3-month Treasury Bill as a comparison to show how utility stocks perform against the backdrop of rising interest rates.
In this example, the 3-month Treasury Bill increased from 1.77% to 4.31%. Meanwhile, New England Electric Systems (NES) had a 52-week low range from $14.50 to $23.50.
Chart of the Day: Ohio Edison
Below is the annual 52-week low for Ohio Edison (OEC) from 1958 to 1967. We’ve also included the 3-month Treasury Bill as a comparison to show how utility stocks perform against the backdrop of rising interest rates.
In this example, the 3-month Treasury Bill increased from 1.77% to 4.31%. Meanwhile, Ohio Edison (OE) had a 52-week low range from $12.75 to $27.87.
Posted in 10-year Targets, 1958-1968, Chart of the Day, interest rates, Ohio Edison, OSE
Canadian Watch List: June 2019
Performance Review
Below we compare the performance of the top five stocks in the respective fundamental categories as published on May 20, 2018 covering the period from May 18, 2018 to June 18, 2019 (intraday).
On May 18, 2018, the Toronto Stock Exchange closed at 16,162.30 while on an intraday basis, The TSX currently trades at 16,504.73. The change in the Toronto Stock Exchange from May 2018 to June 2019 is +2.11%.
Overall, our categories exceeded the TSX by a wide margin which is a testament to the overall methodology that we apply to ranking the stocks.
At the time of our posting on May 20, 2018, we thought that the “low” category stocks would perform the best however, only the low yield stocks came close in the performance ranking.
The consistency of the low yield group to beat the high yield group should change minds when it come to “Dogs of the TSX” investment strategy which espouses buying the high yield stocks in order to beat the Toronto Stock Exchange. Yes, the high yield stocks did beat the TSX, however, wouldn’t the extra boost of nearly 12x the index be preferred over the 4x gain?
June 2019 Canadian Watch List Continue reading
Chart of the Day: Consolidated Edison
Below is the annual 52-week low for Consolidated Edison (ED) from 1958 to 1968. We’ve also included the 3-month Treasury Bill as a comparison to show how utility stocks perform against the backdrop of rising interest rates.
In this example, the 3-month Treasury Bill increased from 1.77% to 4.31%. Meanwhile, Consolidated Edison (ED) had a 52-week low range from $22.00 to $30.63.
Posted in 1958-1968, Chart of the Day, Consolidated Edison, ED, interest rates
Nacco Industries 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for Nacco Industries Inc. (NC) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
U.S. Dividend Watch List: June 16, 2019
Previous Year Performance Review
In our ongoing review of the NLO Dividend Watch List, we have taken the top five stocks on our list from June 15, 2018 and have checked the performance one year later. The top five companies on that list can be seen in the table below.
| Symbol | Name | 2018 Price | 2019 Price | % change |
| FII | Federated Investors Inc | 23.60 | 32.41 | 37.3% |
| CINF | Cincinnati Financial Corp. | 68.99 | 103.54 | 50.1% |
| HRB | H&R Block | 23.66 | 28.69 | 21.3% |
| CB | Chubb Corp. | 130.88 | 150.26 | 14.8% |
| LM | Legg Mason | 35.97 | 36.68 | 2.0% |
| Average | 25.1% | |||
| DJI | Dow Jones Industrial | 25,090.48 | 26,089.61 | 4.0% |
| SPX | S&P 500 | 2,779.66 | 2,886.98 | 3.9% |
Average gain of the top five companies were extraordinary at 25%. Financial sector was the strongest with Cincinnati Financial (CINF) rising 50% in one year, followed by Federated Investors (FII). However, Legg Mason (LM) was virtually flat for the year.
U.S. Dividend Watch List: June 16, 2019
Below are companies on our watch list this week. Continue reading
Posted in Dividend Achiever Watch List, Dividend Achievers, Dividend Watch List
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Toronto Stock Exchange 10-Year Targets
Below are the valuation targets for Toronto Stock Exchange for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Crude Oil: Price Targets
Below are the upside and downside targets based on the work of Edson Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines. Continue reading
Posted in Crude Oil, Edson Gould, Speed Resistance Lines, upside target
Tagged members
Crude Oil: Cyclical Trends
Drawing from the data provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, we have outlined the cyclical trends in the price of Crude Oil: West Texas Intermediate (DCOILWTICO) from 1986 to 2019.
In the period from 1986 to 1998, crude oil experienced a full cycle that included an increase of +279% and a decline of -73%.
In the period from 1998 to 2001, crude oil experienced a full cycle that included an increase of +243% and a decline of -52%.
In the period from 2001 to 2008, crude oil experienced a full cycle that included an increase of +729% and a decline of -79%.
In the period from 2008 to 2016, crude oil experienced a full cycle that included an increase of +274% and a decline of -76%.
In the period from 2016 to the present, oil has experienced a cycle that included an increase of 195% and a decline of -42%.
The data from the peak in 2018 to the most recent low at $44.48 is provided to reflect the cycle up to this point in time. The table below reflects the date, price, and percentage change (excluding the peak to trough from June 2018 to December 2018). When all declining periods are included, the average decline is -65.04%.
Our assessment of the data, as is commonly the case, is to default to the most conservative scenario. In the case of the latest decline in the price of oil from June 27, 2018 to the present, we calculated the decline of -52.98% as a possible turning point for the price of oil. A decline to such a level would bring the price of oil to $36.40, an additional decline of -29.40%.
Posted in Crude Oil, Cyclical Trends
Transaction Alert
The NLO team executed the following transaction(s): Continue reading