Below is the annual 52-week low for Ohio Edison (OEC) from 1958 to 1967. We’ve also included the 3-month Treasury Bill as a comparison to show how utility stocks perform against the backdrop of rising interest rates.
In this example, the 3-month Treasury Bill increased from 1.77% to 4.31%. Meanwhile, Ohio Edison (OE) had a 52-week low range from $12.75 to $27.87.
Posted in 10-year Targets, 1958-1968, Chart of the Day, interest rates, Ohio Edison, OSE
Performance Review
Below we compare the performance of the top five stocks in the respective fundamental categories as published on May 20, 2018 covering the period from May 18, 2018 to June 18, 2019 (intraday).
On May 18, 2018, the Toronto Stock Exchange closed at 16,162.30 while on an intraday basis, The TSX currently trades at 16,504.73. The change in the Toronto Stock Exchange from May 2018 to June 2019 is +2.11%.
Overall, our categories exceeded the TSX by a wide margin which is a testament to the overall methodology that we apply to ranking the stocks.
At the time of our posting on May 20, 2018, we thought that the “low” category stocks would perform the best however, only the low yield stocks came close in the performance ranking.
The consistency of the low yield group to beat the high yield group should change minds when it come to “Dogs of the TSX” investment strategy which espouses buying the high yield stocks in order to beat the Toronto Stock Exchange. Yes, the high yield stocks did beat the TSX, however, wouldn’t the extra boost of nearly 12x the index be preferred over the 4x gain?
June 2019 Canadian Watch List Continue reading
Below is the annual 52-week low for Consolidated Edison (ED) from 1958 to 1968. We’ve also included the 3-month Treasury Bill as a comparison to show how utility stocks perform against the backdrop of rising interest rates.
In this example, the 3-month Treasury Bill increased from 1.77% to 4.31%. Meanwhile, Consolidated Edison (ED) had a 52-week low range from $22.00 to $30.63.
Posted in 1958-1968, Chart of the Day, Consolidated Edison, ED, interest rates
Below are the valuation targets for Nacco Industries Inc. (NC) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Previous Year Performance Review
In our ongoing review of the NLO Dividend Watch List, we have taken the top five stocks on our list from June 15, 2018 and have checked the performance one year later. The top five companies on that list can be seen in the table below.
| Symbol | Name | 2018 Price | 2019 Price | % change |
| FII | Federated Investors Inc | 23.60 | 32.41 | 37.3% |
| CINF | Cincinnati Financial Corp. | 68.99 | 103.54 | 50.1% |
| HRB | H&R Block | 23.66 | 28.69 | 21.3% |
| CB | Chubb Corp. | 130.88 | 150.26 | 14.8% |
| LM | Legg Mason | 35.97 | 36.68 | 2.0% |
| Average | 25.1% | |||
| DJI | Dow Jones Industrial | 25,090.48 | 26,089.61 | 4.0% |
| SPX | S&P 500 | 2,779.66 | 2,886.98 | 3.9% |
Average gain of the top five companies were extraordinary at 25%. Financial sector was the strongest with Cincinnati Financial (CINF) rising 50% in one year, followed by Federated Investors (FII). However, Legg Mason (LM) was virtually flat for the year.
U.S. Dividend Watch List: June 16, 2019
Below are companies on our watch list this week. Continue reading
Posted in Dividend Achiever Watch List, Dividend Achievers, Dividend Watch List
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Below are the valuation targets for Toronto Stock Exchange for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Below are the upside and downside targets based on the work of Edson Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines. Continue reading
Posted in Crude Oil, Edson Gould, Speed Resistance Lines, upside target
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Drawing from the data provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, we have outlined the cyclical trends in the price of Crude Oil: West Texas Intermediate (DCOILWTICO) from 1986 to 2019.
In the period from 1986 to 1998, crude oil experienced a full cycle that included an increase of +279% and a decline of -73%.
In the period from 1998 to 2001, crude oil experienced a full cycle that included an increase of +243% and a decline of -52%.
In the period from 2001 to 2008, crude oil experienced a full cycle that included an increase of +729% and a decline of -79%.
In the period from 2008 to 2016, crude oil experienced a full cycle that included an increase of +274% and a decline of -76%.
In the period from 2016 to the present, oil has experienced a cycle that included an increase of 195% and a decline of -42%.
The data from the peak in 2018 to the most recent low at $44.48 is provided to reflect the cycle up to this point in time. The table below reflects the date, price, and percentage change (excluding the peak to trough from June 2018 to December 2018). When all declining periods are included, the average decline is -65.04%.
Our assessment of the data, as is commonly the case, is to default to the most conservative scenario. In the case of the latest decline in the price of oil from June 27, 2018 to the present, we calculated the decline of -52.98% as a possible turning point for the price of oil. A decline to such a level would bring the price of oil to $36.40, an additional decline of -29.40%.
Posted in Crude Oil, Cyclical Trends
The NLO team executed the following transaction(s): Continue reading
Below are the valuation targets for Cimarex Energy Co. (XEC) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
Below is a chart of the production of cigars and cigarettes from 1900-1923.
We have included the market share comparison of Juul, the e-cigarette that Altria (MO) recently increased their stake in, and other tobacco related products from 2014 to 2017 in a research report generated by Bonnie Herzog, senior analyst at Wells Fargo Securities.
Are cigarettes going the way of the cigar? Maybe. Will e-cigarettes replace cigarettes? Possibly.
As far as we’re concerned, all articles on the topic of cigarettes and e-cigs should mirror the 1924 Barron’s article title, “Can the Cigarette Come Back?: A Great Industry in Process of E-volution.”
Posted in 1900, 1923, Chart of the Day, cigarettes
Below is a chart of the price index of Southern England from 1290 to 1950. Highlighted in the chart is the formation of the Bank of England in 1694.
Additional reading: Interest Rate Policy: Bizarre to the Uninitiated
Posted in 1290, 1950, Chart of the Day, Federal Reserve Bank, inflation
Below is the average price-to-earnings ratio of twelve stocks from the 1921 low to December 1930.
Worth noting is that the late 1929 low would have been considered undervalued to most investors.
Posted in Chart of the Day, High P/E, P/E ratio
Below are the valuation targets for Cintas Corp. (CTAS) for the next 10 years. Continue reading