On September 14, 2018, we said the following of the downside targets for AeroVironment (AVAV), when the stock was trading at $116.24:
“The conservative downside target of $62.26 is a lock in our view. To put this in perspective, AVAV would have to increase to $160.62 before the $62.26 level isn’t a normal ‘dip.’”
The numbers we based our downside targets on was with the assumption that AVAV could rise as high as $160.62, for a reasonable margin of error. Instead, AVAV peaked only two trading days later at $119.83 (the above chart has been adjusted to the peak).
The decline in AVAV has seen the stock fall as low as $49.54 on August 27, 2019, a drop of –58.65%. The most important element of the current decline is the ability of the stock price to remedy the preceding parabolic move. A drop of nearly-60% comes very close to fixing the previous disparity in the price.
From the August low, AVAV has managed to rally to the latest price at $61.81. The power of the reversal is highlighted in the fact that the stock price rose from the $49.54 level then achieved the $63.59 price. From the $63.59, the stock declined but could not achieve a price lower than $49.54.
The upside resistance levels are as follows:
-
$84.69
-
$96.63
-
$108.23
Speculators (as opposed to Investors) should take these levels to be the points when the continuation of the upside will reverse to the prior low, as a re-test. Investors, basing their assessment on the fundamentals, can strategically enter positions breaking their intended investments in thirds or halves.
