The following is the breakdown of the Dogs of the TSX (here) in week seven, compared to other fundamental ratios. Continue reading
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NLO in Review: 2020-7
Below is the year-to-date performance of major indexes compared to any one of the top categories that we created and track from January 3, 2020 to February 14, 2020.
The following is the breakdown of the Dogs of the NLO based on our January 3, 2020 watch list, compared to other fundamental ratios. The purpose of this work is to confirm or deny the claims proposed of the Dogs of the Dow theory as outlined by Michael O’Higgins in his book Beating the Dow. Continue reading
DJIA in Review: 2020-7
Below is the year-to-date (YTD) performance of various major indexes and from December 31, 2019 to February 14, 2020.
The following is the breakdown of the Dogs of the Dow (found here) in week seven, compared to other fundamental ratios. Continue reading
Favorite Fifty: 1961 OTC
Below is the performance of the Vicker’s Favorite Fifty OTC stocks as published on October 30, 1961 by Barron’s covering data from September 1, 1961 to September 4, 1962:
In the period from September 1, 1961 to September 4, 1962, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined –16.46% compared to the overall change of Favorite Fifty OTC stocks at –43.75%. It is very important to contrast the Favorite Fifty OTC stocks to the Favorite Fifty NYSE stocks. The OTC stocks are small cap companies and favor growth over income which is found in the NYSE list.
The breakdown of the data based on dividend yield, price-to-earnings ratios, and dividend payout ratio.
The “best” performance was achieved by no group listed here. With the Dow Jones Industrial Average declining by -16.46%, no single subset of stocks managed to perform better.
Note:
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Rank is determined by the largest number of holdings by closed-end funds and open-end investment companies for listed Over-The-Counter stocks. Rank number 1 means the stock is held by the most investment companies on a dollar value basis.
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Armon, Glenn. “Over-The-Counter Favorites.” Barron's. October 30, 1961. page 9.
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Aigeltinger & Co.
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Vickers, Sydney. Guide to Investment Company Portfolios. Vickers & Associates. 1960.
See also:
Posted in Fabulous Fifty, Favorite Fifty, Nifty Fifty, OTC
Google Trends and the Coronavirus
We recently saw an article In Bloomberg News on the possibility of the CoronaVirus (2019-nCoV) or (COVID-19) being known as early as the last week of December 2019. We looked at GoogleTrends to see if there was any correlation to this claim and our results are below.
GoogleTrends: United States SARS last 90 days
GoogleTrends: Japan SARS last 90 days
GoogleTrends: China SARS last 90 days
GoogleTrends: China SARS last 5 years
January 12, 2020 is the date when the details of genome sequencing triggered a outbreak alert.
We have been able to confirm with GoogleTrends that in China, the December jump in searches was abnormal not only in the last 90-day period but the largest spike in searches in the last five year period.
Posted in coronavirus, COVID-19, Google Trends
Nifty Fifty: 1961
Below is the performance of the Nifty Fifty as published on June 6, 1960 by Barron’s covering data from September 1, 1961 to September 4, 1962:
In the period from September 1, 1961 to September 4, 1962, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined –16.46% compared to the overall change of –22.04% in the Nifty Fifty. The breakdown of the data based on dividend yield, price-to-earnings ratios, and dividend payout ratio.
The best gain was achieved by the top three stocks in the Low P/E category with an increase of +10.79%.
Note:
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This list is carried over from the 1960 listing of the Favorite Fifty stocks as published in Barron’s.
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Rank is determined by 58 closed-end funds and over 100 open-end investment companies and their holdings. Rank number 1 means the stock is held by the most investment companies on a dollar value basis.
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“The Favorite Fifty: The First Quarter Saw a Good Many Changes in the Line-Up.” Barron's. June 6, 1960. page 9.
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Aigeltinger & Co.
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Vickers, Sydney. Guide to Investment Company Portfolios. Vickers & Associates. 1960.
See also:
Posted in Fabulous Fifty, Favorite Fifty, Nifty Fifty
Market Return After Exceptional Years
2019 was an exceptional year to be long equities. The S&P 500 gained +30.40% which is the 6th time the market put up gain of +30% or more. This peaked our interest in subsequent market returns after an exceptional year. We compiled and analyzed the data for our readers.
Below is the market return after the S&P 500 gained +30% or more. The average return in the subsequent year was +20% with 100% success rate.
| Index | Year | % Change | Subsequent Year % Change |
| S&P 500 | 1954 | 44% | 24% |
| S&P 500 | 1958 | 37% | 8% |
| S&P 500 | 1975 | 31% | 19% |
| S&P 500 | 1995 | 34% | 20% |
| S&P 500 | 1997 | 31% | 27% |
| S&P 500 | 2019 | 30% | ? |
Reducing the market return for the S&P 500 to +25%, the success rate dropped to 83.30% and the only 2 subsequent down years were 1981 and 1990. The average return under this assumption is +12%.
| Index | Year | % Change | Subsequent Year % Change |
| S&P 500 | 1954 | 44.2% | 23.8% |
| S&P 500 | 1958 | 36.9% | 8.0% |
| S&P 500 | 1975 | 31.4% | 19.1% |
| S&P 500 | 1980 | 25.8% | -9.7% |
| S&P 500 | 1985 | 26.4% | 14.6% |
| S&P 500 | 1989 | 27.3% | -6.6% |
| S&P 500 | 1991 | 26.3% | 4.5% |
| S&P 500 | 1995 | 34.1% | 20.3% |
| S&P 500 | 1997 | 31.0% | 26.7% |
| S&P 500 | 1998 | 26.7% | 19.5% |
| S&P 500 | 2003 | 26.4% | 9.0% |
| S&P 500 | 2013 | 29.6% | 11.5% |
| S&P 500 | 2019 | 30.4% | ? |
Taking this return down to +20% didn’t change the success rate of having a positive return in the subsequent year. The success rate remain at 83.30% but the average return dropped slightly to +11%.
| Index | Year | % Change | Subsequent Year % Change |
| S&P 500 | 1950 | 22.6% | 14.4% |
| S&P 500 | 1954 | 44.2% | 23.8% |
| S&P 500 | 1955 | 23.8% | 3.3% |
| S&P 500 | 1958 | 36.9% | 8.0% |
| S&P 500 | 1961 | 24.3% | -11.8% |
| S&P 500 | 1967 | 20.1% | 7.7% |
| S&P 500 | 1975 | 31.4% | 19.1% |
| S&P 500 | 1980 | 25.8% | -9.7% |
| S&P 500 | 1985 | 26.4% | 14.6% |
| S&P 500 | 1989 | 27.3% | -6.6% |
| S&P 500 | 1991 | 26.3% | 4.5% |
| S&P 500 | 1995 | 34.1% | 20.3% |
| S&P 500 | 1996 | 20.3% | 31.0% |
| S&P 500 | 1997 | 31.0% | 26.7% |
| S&P 500 | 1998 | 26.7% | 19.5% |
| S&P 500 | 2003 | 26.4% | 9.0% |
| S&P 500 | 2009 | 23.5% | 12.6% |
| S&P 500 | 2013 | 29.6% | 11.5% |
| S&P 500 | 2019 | 30.4% | ? |
The last table shows subsequent return when the market rises +15% or more. Under this circumstances, the market rose 70.80% of the time with an average return of +6.90%.
| Index | Year | % Change | Subsequent Year % Change |
| S&P 500 | 1950 | 22.6% | 14.4% |
| S&P 500 | 1954 | 44.2% | 23.8% |
| S&P 500 | 1955 | 23.8% | 3.3% |
| S&P 500 | 1958 | 36.9% | 8.0% |
| S&P 500 | 1961 | 24.3% | -11.8% |
| S&P 500 | 1963 | 18.9% | 13.0% |
| S&P 500 | 1967 | 20.1% | 7.7% |
| S&P 500 | 1972 | 15.6% | -17.4% |
| S&P 500 | 1975 | 31.4% | 19.1% |
| S&P 500 | 1976 | 19.1% | -11.5% |
| S&P 500 | 1980 | 25.8% | -9.7% |
| S&P 500 | 1983 | 17.3% | 1.4% |
| S&P 500 | 1985 | 26.4% | 14.6% |
| S&P 500 | 1989 | 27.3% | -6.6% |
| S&P 500 | 1991 | 26.3% | 4.5% |
| S&P 500 | 1995 | 34.1% | 20.3% |
| S&P 500 | 1996 | 20.3% | 31.0% |
| S&P 500 | 1997 | 31.0% | 26.7% |
| S&P 500 | 1998 | 26.7% | 19.5% |
| S&P 500 | 1999 | 19.5% | -10.1% |
| S&P 500 | 2003 | 26.4% | 9.0% |
| S&P 500 | 2009 | 23.5% | 12.6% |
| S&P 500 | 2013 | 29.6% | 11.5% |
| S&P 500 | 2017 | 18.7% | -6.6% |
| S&P 500 | 2019 | 30.4% | ? |
Updated 1/28/2024 - Market Return After Exceptional Year – 2023
WorkDay Downside Targets
Below are the downside targets for WorkDay Inc. (WDAY).
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$140.86 (conservative target)
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$107.81 (mid-range target)
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$74.77 (extreme target)
The downside targets are based on the peak price of $224.30. In our view, WorkDay failed to achieve the minimum downside target of the ascending level at $140.86. In many respects, this reflects the strength of buyers. However, this failure would not have allowed us to take advantage of the reversal that has occurred since the $152.29 low.
With this in mind, we have posted the upside resistance targets based on the October 23, 2019 low. These target are meant to confirm the strength of the rise and the potential for additional gains/losses going forward.
Posted in Speed Resistance Lines, SRL, WDAY
WorkDay Upside Resistance Targets
Based on the decline from the peak at $224.30, WorkDay Inc. (WDAY) has the following upside resistance levels:
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$188.30
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$200.14
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$212.42
Based on the low of $152.29, WorkDay Inc. increased beyond the initial upside resistance target of $188.30 and then broke down below that level. However, the true test of any momentum is the ability to rise and then fall without going below the prior low, in this case $152.29.
Each of the levels indicated are critical resistance levels that should see a material decline in the stock price. Exceeding each level lends support to the stock price going to the next level. For this reason, we expect that the $212.42 price should see some resistance due to the rapid run-up from the December 13, 2019 low. In this case, resistance means a vacillation between the descending $212.42 and $200.34 price levels.
A rise to $224.30 means that a new bull run is in the cards and should be hedged according.
Posted in upside target
TSX 60 in Review: 2020-6
The following is the breakdown of the Dogs of the TSX (here) in week six, compared to other fundamental ratios. Continue reading
DJIA in Review: 2020-6
The following is the breakdown of the Dogs of the Dow (found here) in week six, compared to other fundamental ratios. Continue reading
Sea Limited Downside Targets
Below are the downside targets for Sea Limited (SE).
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$31.32 (conservative target)
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$23.46 (mid-range target)
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$15.61 (extreme target)
If you’re impressed with the increase of Tesla (downside target here) in the last few months then a look at Sea Limited should put that into perspective.
Since the name change of the company from Garena Interactive Holding in 2017 (cough), Sea Limited has outpaced Tesla on the upside.
Posted in SE, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL
NLO in Review: 2020-6
The following is the breakdown of the Dogs of the NLO based on our January 3, 2020 watch list, compared to other fundamental ratios. The purpose of this work is to confirm or deny the claims proposed of the Dogs of the Dow theory as outlined by Michael O’Higgins in his book Beating the Dow. Continue reading
Income Bellwethers
In March 2019, Morningstar published their Income Bellwether Watchlist with data from February 11, 2019. Below is the performance of the stocks based on the highest and lowest dividend yield from February 11, 2019 to February 7, 2020 (intraday).
Based on the data, High Yield stocks severely underperformed the Dow Jones Industrial Average, even in the best case scenario. Meanwhile, the Low Yield stocks trounced the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This data confirms our work in the Dogs of the Dow.
Posted in Dogs of the Dow, Income Bellwethers
Nifty Fifty: 1960
Below is the performance of the Nifty Fifty as published on June 6, 1960 by Barron’s covering data from March 28, 1960 to March 20, 1961:
In the period from March 28, 1960 to March 20, 1961, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased +9.18% compared to the overall change of +9.53% in the Nifty Fifty. The breakdown of the data based on dividend yield, price-to-earnings ratios, and dividend payout ratio.
The best gain was achieved by the top three stocks in the High P/E category with an increase of +13.00%.
Note:
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Rank is determined by 58 closed-end funds and over 100 open-end investment companies and their holdings. Rank number 1 means the stock is held by the most investment companies on a dollar value basis.
-
“The Favorite Fifty: The First Quarter Saw a Good Many Changes in the Line-Up.” Barron's. June 6, 1960. page 9.
-
Aigeltinger & Co.
-
Vickers, Sydney. Guide to Investment Company Portfolios. Vickers & Associates. 1960.
See also:
Posted in Fabulous Fifty, Nifty Fifty