Did BusinessWeek Really Say That?

In a recent article, Bloomberg BusinessWeek referred to their “The Death of Equities” article that was published on August 13, 1979.

Bloomberg owned up to an article that they didn’t have much to do with and used it as a point of reference for the market’s change since 1979.  It seems that very often, bad calls are buried when they can be used as lessons.  Good job Bloomberg BusinessWeek.

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What stood out to us about the article is the reference to the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average at +9,000% compared to the S&P 500 Index at +7,000%.  Many contend that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is an outdated index and that the S&P 500 is “better” because of the broader diversification being representative of the U.S. economy.

Our view has always been, go with the index that has the longest history of data.  In this case, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has published record of data going back to 1896 while the S&P 500 goes back to 1957. Also, greater concentration does better than broad diversification when selecting within the “blue chip” category of stocks.

See Also:

Andrew Left is Wrong About GE

Summary

  • General Electric has been in decline at least since 2000.
  • After 19 years of persistent decline, Harry Markopolos claims that GE is committing accounting fraud.
  • GE offers up their defense of the Markopolos charges saying they are “meritless.”
  • Andrew Left of Citron Research rejects the assertions made by Markopolos.
  • The SEC has already said that Andrew Left is wrong about GE.

Review

On August 28, 2000, the closing high for General Electric (GE) was $57.69.  On August 14, 2019, the closing price for General Electric was $9.03.

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The Charge

In a republished Bloomberg article written by Katherine Chiglinsky, Richard Clough and Jack Pitcher found at Yahoo!Finance, Harry Markopolos claims that General Electric is committing “accounting fraud.”

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The Rebuttal

For its part, General Electric rejects the claim of Markopolos and says:

The claims made by Mr. Markopolos are meritless. The Company has never met, spoken to or had contact with Mr. Markopolos, and we are extremely disappointed that an individual with no direct knowledge of GE would choose to make such serious and unsubstantiated claims.  GE operates at the highest level of integrity and stands behind its financial reporting. We remain focused on running our businesses every day, following the strategic path we have laid out.”

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In Defense of General Electric

On August 16, 2019, in defense of GE, according to Andrew Left of Citron Research:

Aggressive accounting and fraud are two different animals.  The SEC has allowed aggressive accounting for years, which has helped fuel a growing economy.  If GE was committing fraud then it has been a grand scale conspiracy by thousands of accountants, auditors, and division CFOs who have all secretly collaborated over the past 20 years.”

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Aggressive Accounting is Fraud

On August 4, 2009, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced that it had reached a $50 million fraud settlement with General Electric.  In the published press release, it was said that:

“‘GE bent the accounting rules beyond the breaking point,’ said Robert Khuzami, Director of the SEC's Division of Enforcement. ‘Overly aggressive accounting can distort a company's true financial condition and mislead investors.’”

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Conclusions

  • The decline of GE was more than 20 years in the making.
  • “Aggressive accounting” by GE stretches back to the 1980’s later leading to numerous settlements with government agencies.
  • “Aggressive accounting” beget more aggressive tactics.
  • Andrew Left has built his reputation on identify companies to short citing “aggressive accounting” as a part of his strategy.
  • Andrew Left is wrong that “aggressive accounting and fraud are two different animals.  The SEC has allowed aggressive accounting for years, which has helped fuel a growing economy...” therefore, in this instance, it isn’t fraud.
  • The 2009 settlement by the SEC with GE for using “aggressive accounting” tactics is clearly defined as fraud.

See Also:

Year Over Year: Berkshire Hathaway

Below is a chart of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A) from 1981 to 2019 reflecting the year-over-year (YoY) percentage change.

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Berkshire Hathaway 10-Year Targets

Below are the valuation targets for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A) over the next 10 years. Continue reading

Transaction Alert

The NLO team executed the following transaction(s): Continue reading

Margin Debit-Credit: August 2019

Below is the Year-Over-Year percentage change data from FINRA’s Margin Statistics.

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We’ve combined the data that ends in January 2010 with the data that begins in February 2010 from the same data source.  The dates on the chart generally coincide with market peaks and trough.

U.S Dividend Watch List: August 2, 2019

Previous Year Performance Review

In our ongoing review of the NLO Dividend Watch List, we have taken the top five stocks on our list from August 3, 2018 and have checked the performance one year later. The top five companies on that list can be seen in the table below.

Symbol Name 2018 Price 2019 Price % change
FFIC Flushing Financial Corp. 24.87 19.67 -20.9%
IVZ Invesco Ltd. 25.15 17.84 -29.1%
FII Federated Investors Inc 22.91 33.99 48.4%
LM Legg Mason 32.24 37.98 17.8%
CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. 145.58 172.25 18.3%
      Average 6.9%
         
DJI Dow Jones Industrial 25,462.58 26,485.01 4.0%
SPX S&P 500 2,840.35 2,932.05 3.2%

Last year, there were numbers of financial companies trading near their yearly low. As such, we suggested our readers to explore Financial ETF, XLF, as an alternative to individual shares. Price for XLF were virtually flat year-over-year but price fell to $22.31 in late December of last year.

Illinois Tool Works (ITW) raised dividend payout by 28% last year which was a bullish sign. Share rose 9% in one year and we can expect more dividend increase to be in the short horizon.

U.S. Dividend Watch List: August 2, 2019

Market closed the week 3% lower than last week. There were several news one could attribute to this weakness. The first one was the rate cut from the Federal Reserve and the second was the plan to impose more tariffs on China. How should one position for this market? The fact that the market is near its all-time high, we can say that buying at this level poses some short-term risk. Buffett, as an example, was a net selling of stocks in the last quarter. Continue reading

Consumer Sentiment: August 2019

Review

On April 1, 2019, we wrote an extensive piece on the work Charles H. Dow and how the Dow Jones Industrial Average is a consumer sentiment indicator that precedes the widely quoted University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.

When we say that the Dow Jones Industrial Average precedes the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey, an appropriate response should be that, when compared to the actual data, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey generally peaks and troughs before the Dow Jones Industrial Average.  As this is an accurate claim, we are required to point out that University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey is delayed and revised every two weeks whereas the Dow Jones Industrial Average is instantaneous and unrevised.

Is a two week delay all that important in the big scheme of things?  It is likely that the Dow Jones Industrial Average influences the outcome of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.  As a reminder, the Consumer Sentiment Survey is a phone survey consisting of 50 questions across 500 or more individuals/households versus the stock market that reflects millions of transactions on a daily basis.

Current Take

In the chart of the Year-Over-Year comparison of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, we have included the current cycle from the recession of 2007-2009 to the present.

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In the chart above, the current view is best reflected in the late-2017/early-2018 declining trend.  We’ve highlighted, in a green circle, the Dow Jones Industrial Average as it reverses a rising trend and then starts to decline.  Likewise, the Consumer Sentiment Survey starts to flatten rather than continue to move higher.

Forward View

A trend doesn’t define the future prospects.  However, we believe that the declining trend has not completely played out.  This means that we expect that the economy and stock market will languish, in the best case scenario.

Alternatively, if the Dow Jones Industrial Average can exceed the 28,750 level, the Consumer Sentiment Survey will reflect this change of direction and move above the short-term peak of May 2019. 

Year Over Year: Methanex Corp. Update

Below is an update to the July 14, 2019 posting on Methanex Corp.

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Year Over Year: NetApp Inc.

Below is a chart of NetApp (NTAP) from 1996 to 2019 reflecting the year-over-year (YoY) percentage change.

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Year Over Year: Abiomed Inc.

Below is a chart of Abiomed (ABMD) from 1992 to 2019 reflecting the year-over-year (YoY) percentage change.

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U.S. Dividend Watch List: July 26 2019

Below is the watch list for this week. Continue reading

Year Over Year: Archer-Daniels-Midland

Below is a chart of Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) from 1981 to 2019 reflecting the year-over-year (YoY) percentage change. Continue reading

Dogs of the TSX 60: July 2019

Based on the price data of July 24, 2019 (intraday), we have the following average year-to-date (YTD) performance of the respective categories within the Dogs of the TSX 60 as compared to the YTD performance of the Toronto Stock Exchange.

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For each group ([top 10], [1,2,3], or [2,3,4]) we have highlighted the top performing categories.

  • In the top 10 group, the “highest price-to-book” gained +22.90% and was followed by the “lowest p/b” set at +20.52%, exceeding the TSX Index by more than 6.00%.
  • Among the top 1, 2, and 3 stocks, the “lowest p/b” stocks crushed the TSX with gains of +62.02%.  Even the runner-up “highest price-to-book” category pulled out a +28.71% gain.
  • In our preferred grouping (top 2,3, and 4), the “lowest yield” category managed to gain +38.08% which exceeded the runner-up “highest price-to-book” with gains of +28.71%.
  • Severe underperformance was found in the categories of “lowest price-to-earnings” and “highest yield”.
  • We continue to favor stocks found in the “lowest yield” category for the TSX 60 stocks as noted in our January 1, 2019 posting and supported by an exceptional amount of data on the topic.  The “lowest yield” category provides gains that are more consistent than most other categories.

Below is the specific stocks and their respective performance which generated the listed returns for the specific categories (date range is December 31, 2018 to July 24, 2019). Continue reading

Year Over Year: Healthcare Services

Below is a chart of Healthcare Services Group (HCSG) from 1984 to 2019 reflecting the year-over-year (YoY) percentage change. Continue reading