U.S. Dividend Watch List: Top 5 by Ratios

Below is the performance of the top 5 stocks by fundamental ratios that we posted from our watch list dated January 4, 2019 to December 27, 2019:

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When looking at the data, we prefer to compare the performance of companies on a spectrum of relative values.  For this reason, we have compared the High P/E stocks against the Low P/E stocks, High P/B to Low P/B etc.

Long held views on fundamental value investing suggest that investors choose the stocks in the “low” categories over the “high” categories, except in the case of yield.  Our attention to the spectrum of data that is available to us points to the fact, so far, that the “high” categories require significant attention as they offer significant potential reward.

The category to beat from our January 4, 2019 watch list was the High P/E group as opposed to the Low P/E group where the gain was +47.06% as compared to +24.02%, respectively.

The second best category in 2019 was the High P/B group with a 2019 gain of +40.35% as contrasted with the Low P/B group which gained +23.88%.

The third group, in terms of performance, was the Low Yield stocks with a gain of +16.25% (failing to beat the index), which stood at nearly 3 times the gains of the High Yield (similar to the Dogs of Dow) stocks with gains of +6.53%.

Last but not least, the High Payout (dividend payout relative to earnings) stocks gained +27.17% as compared to the Low Payout stocks gain of +10.42%.

In the last year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained approximately +22.34%.

U.S. Dividend Watch List: December 27, 2019

This is the last watch list for 2019 and what a year it has been to be long equities.

The S&P 500 index increased +30% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose +25%.

Our team has been working hard to fine tune our strategies and we look forward to highlighting the results next year. For now, here are companies on our watch list to ending the decade.

Symbol Name Price % Yr Low P/E EPS (ttm) P/B Yield Payout Ratio
HRB H&R Block 23.39 2.63% 11.5 2.03 -60.0 4.4% 51%
BEN Franklin Resources 26.25 2.66% 11.2 2.35 1.3 4.1% 46%
SWX Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. 75.24 2.69% 21.0 3.59 1.7 2.9% 61%
TCO Taubman Centers 30.45 3.15% 7.8 3.91 32.7 8.9% 69%
CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. 154.83 3.57% 17.0 9.10 6.1 3.4% 57%
MCY Mercury General Corp. 48.58 4.05% 13.0 3.73 1.5 5.2% 68%
ROL Rollins Inc. 32.66 4.15% 52.7 0.62 13.3 1.3% 68%
FCBC First Community Bancshares 30.99 4.31% 12.8 2.42 1.4 3.2% 41%
ANAT American National Insurance 115.89 4.40% 9.4 12.34 0.5 2.8% 27%
CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide 77.93 5.14% 16.3 4.79 6.3 2.6% 43%
CLX Clorox 153.53 6.93% 24.4 6.29 35.1 2.8% 67%
EVR Evercore Inc. 75.38 8.37% 9.3 8.14 3.9 3.1% 29%
ATRI Atrion Corporation 734.39 8.74% 37.5 19.57 5.9 0.8% 32%
NJR New Jersey Resources Corp. 43.87 8.80% 23.2 1.89 2.5 2.8% 66%
NFG National Fuel Gas 46.87 9.05% 13.4 3.51 1.9 3.7% 50%
STFC State Auto Financial Corp. 30.84 9.75% 44.7 0.69 1.4 1.3% 58%
UGI UGI Corp. 44.70 10.32% 31.7 1.41 2.4 2.9% 92%
DUK Duke Energy Corporation 90.97 10.32% 18.8 4.83 1.5 4.2% 78%
CNP CenterPoint Energy, Inc. 26.91 10.97% 21.4 1.26 2.0 4.3% 91%

Companies in green and blue are part of the Dividend Achiever and Dividend Aristocrat, respectively.

Disclaimer On our current list, we excluded companies that have no earnings. Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and extensive due diligence. Our view is to embrace the worse case scenario prior to investing. It is important to place these companies on your own watch list so that when the opportunity arises, you can purchase them with a greater margin of safety. It is our expectation that, at the most, only 1/3 of the companies that are part of our list will outperform the market over a one-year period.

Federal Realty Trust 10-Year Targets

Below are the valuation targets for Federal Realty Trust (FRT) for the next 10 years. Continue reading

Kimberly-Clark 10-Year Targets

Below are the valuation targets for Kimberly-Clark (KMB) for the next 10 years. Continue reading

Amazon.com: Cyclical Trends

Below is a chart of Amazon.com (AMZN) from 1997 to 2019.

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In the charts that follow, we break down the percentage change in each cyclical rise and decline of  Amazon.com.  These cyclical changes put into perspective the current rise and help to gauge what to expect when the next cyclical decline arrives. Continue reading

SNC-Lavalin Group 10-Year Targets

Below are the valuation targets for SNC-Lavalin Group (SNC.TO) for the next 10 years. Continue reading

U.S. Dividend Watch List: Top 5 by Ratios

Below is the performance of the top 5 stocks by fundamental ratios that we follow from our watch list dated December 14, 2018:

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All of the “high” categories exceeded the performance of the “low” categories except in the case of low/high yield, a pattern that has been consistent throughout our review of the data (1996-2019).

In the last year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained a total return of  approximately +20.17%.

Below are the top five stocks by fundamental ratios for the U.S. Dividend Watch List dated December 14, 2018: Continue reading

U.S. Dividend Watch List: December 13, 2019

Previous Year Performance Review

In our ongoing review of the NLO Dividend Watch List, we have taken the top five stocks on our list from December 14, 2018 and have checked the performance one year later. The top five companies on that list can be seen in the table below.

Symbol Name 2018 Price 2019 Price % change
ONB Old National BanCorp. 16.29 18.25 12.0%
QNTO Quaint Oak Bancorp, Inc. 11.85 14.25 20.3%
FMBI First Midwest BanCorp. 20.64 22.79 10.4%
CTBI Community Trust BanCorp. 40.73 46.07 13.1%
EV Eaton Vance Corp. 34.95 47.31 35.4%
      Average 18.2%
         
DJI Dow Jones Industrial 24,100.51 28,135.38 16.7%
SPX S&P 500 2,599.95 3,168.80 21.9%

The top five companies, comprised mostly of regional banks, average returned was 18.2%.

U.S. Dividend Watch List: December 13, 2019

Another week, another record high for the market. At this moment, all we will be doing is track companies that have reach their yearly low and have a reversing pattern. Until then, we will continue to monitor the market and all our positions and potentially raise cash at the beginning of next year. Below are companies on our watch list this week. Continue reading

1948-2019: Corporate Profits and the DJIA

The chart below outlines the quarterly year-over-year percentage change in corporate profits after taxes versus the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1948 to 2019.

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The chart below is the same data from 2011 to 2019 directly from the St. Louis Federal Reserve website.

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See also: Consumer Sentiment 1897-2019

Interest Rate Monitor: December 2019

On October 7, 2019, when the 3-month treasury sat at 1.75%, we said the following:

“Tentatively, we expected the 3-month Treasury will decline into the range of 1.62% to 1.39%.”

By October 30, 2019, the Federal Reserve lowered rates when the daily 3-month Treasury was at 1.62%.  Since that time, a pattern has emerged which is worth a quick take. Continue reading

AeroVironment: Upside Resistance Targets

On September 14, 2018, we said the following of the downside targets for AeroVironment (AVAV), when the stock was trading at $116.24:

“The conservative downside target of $62.26 is a lock in our view.  To put this in perspective, AVAV would have to increase to $160.62 before the $62.26 level isn’t a normal ‘dip.’”

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The numbers we based our downside targets on was with the assumption that AVAV could rise as high as $160.62, for a reasonable margin of error.  Instead, AVAV peaked only two trading days later at $119.83 (the above chart has been adjusted to the peak).

The decline in AVAV has seen the stock fall as low as $49.54 on August 27, 2019, a drop of –58.65%.  The most important element of the current decline is the ability of the stock price to remedy the preceding parabolic move.  A drop of nearly-60% comes very close to fixing the previous disparity in the price.

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From the August low, AVAV has managed to rally to the latest price at $61.81.  The power of the reversal is highlighted in the fact that the stock price rose from the $49.54 level then achieved the $63.59 price.  From the $63.59, the stock declined but could not achieve a price lower than $49.54.

The upside resistance levels are as follows:

  • $84.69
  • $96.63
  • $108.23

Speculators (as opposed to Investors) should take these levels to be the points when the continuation of the upside will reverse to the prior low, as a re-test.  Investors, basing their assessment on the fundamentals, can strategically enter positions breaking their intended investments in thirds or halves.

U.S. Dividend Watch List: Top 5 by Ratios

Below are the top five stocks by fundamental ratios for the U.S. Dividend Watch List dated November 29, 2019: Continue reading

U.S. Dividend Watch List: November 29, 2019

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 reached another all-time high this week. Despite the strong move in those indexes, we have not seen the Dow Jones Transport confirm this bullish move. With markets at all-time highs, we have less than 30 companies on our watch list for the week. Continue reading

The Ratings Game: PG&E

This is an update to our January 8, 2019 posting.

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Worth pointing out, PCG is dropped from the S&P 500 index at the low.

Sysco Corp. 10-Year Targets

Below are the valuation targets for Sysco Corp. (SYY) over the next 10 years. Continue reading