AeroVironment: Upside Resistance Targets

On September 14, 2018, we said the following of the downside targets for AeroVironment (AVAV), when the stock was trading at $116.24:

“The conservative downside target of $62.26 is a lock in our view.  To put this in perspective, AVAV would have to increase to $160.62 before the $62.26 level isn’t a normal ‘dip.’”

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The numbers we based our downside targets on was with the assumption that AVAV could rise as high as $160.62, for a reasonable margin of error.  Instead, AVAV peaked only two trading days later at $119.83 (the above chart has been adjusted to the peak).

The decline in AVAV has seen the stock fall as low as $49.54 on August 27, 2019, a drop of –58.65%.  The most important element of the current decline is the ability of the stock price to remedy the preceding parabolic move.  A drop of nearly-60% comes very close to fixing the previous disparity in the price.

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From the August low, AVAV has managed to rally to the latest price at $61.81.  The power of the reversal is highlighted in the fact that the stock price rose from the $49.54 level then achieved the $63.59 price.  From the $63.59, the stock declined but could not achieve a price lower than $49.54.

The upside resistance levels are as follows:

  • $84.69
  • $96.63
  • $108.23

Speculators (as opposed to Investors) should take these levels to be the points when the continuation of the upside will reverse to the prior low, as a re-test.  Investors, basing their assessment on the fundamentals, can strategically enter positions breaking their intended investments in thirds or halves.

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