Below is a chart of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index from 1996 to 2022, reflecting Price Momentum data.
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- Price Momentum Indicators
- Richard Russell
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- Speed Resistance Lines
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Category Archives: Uncategorized
Paramount Global 10-Year Targets $PARA
Below are the valuation targets for Paramount Global (PARA) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
U.S. Dividend Watch List: November 12, 2021
We saw major indexes reach all-time high prior week which drive our NLO indicator ever slightly higher. The bullish trend remain even after slight pull back later in the week. Below are companies on our watch list for this week. Continue reading
U.S. Dividend Watch List: October 29, 2021
The market had a tremendous run this past year. Year-over-year, the S&P rose 40% with some corrections along the way. Our watch list from prior year also had an outstanding outcome. Low P/E strategy shot up 200% driven mainly by an acquisition of Meredith (MDP) by IAC’s Dotdash. MDP gained 421% in one year. Another name that helped propelled the Low P/E and Low P/B strategy was State Auto Financial (STFC) which rose 316% in a year after Liberty Mutual agree to acquire the company.
U.S. Dividend Watch List: October 29, 2021
The Dow Jones Industrial, S&P 500, and Nasdaq closed the week at all-time high. As bullish indicator, Dow Jones Transport is a fraction of percentage from its all-time high as well and setting up for Dow Theory up trend confirmation. Below is a watch list containing companies to watch. Continue reading
2009-2021: MarketAxess Holdings Altimeter
In theory, MarketAxess (MKTX) is nearly undervalued based on Edson Gould’s Altimeter. However, 2018 and 2020 have managed to show us lower levels.
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U.S. Dividend Watch List: June 11, 2021
The week closed with major indexes approaching record level. S&P 500 ended the week at record high while the Dow and Nasdaq are less than 1% away. The number of companies on our watch list remain stable at 34, 9 of which are Dividend Aristocrat and 22 are Dividend Achiever. Continue reading
NLO Market Indicator–May 14, 2021
It was a volatile week for the market. Despite 3 major indexes (S&P 500, DJI, JIT) reaching all-time high and confirming Dow Theory bull market. There are some sign to keep a look out for. Below is the market indicator at the end of last week. Continue reading
Posted in Market Ratio, NLO Market Indicator, NLO Market Score, Uncategorized
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NLO Market Score – Our Proprietary Market Timing Tool
The concept of a market indicator or market timing tool isn't a new concept. While compounding is THE most power force in investing, market timing tools come in a close second. As the old saying, "don't tell me what to buy, tell me when to buy".
Our team has developed a proprietary market timing tool which we are calling NLO Market Score. In its simplest form, the tool assigns a score ranging from -6 to +6 to the market and is similar to market breath.
For example, the market score reached -6 on March 12, 2020 when the S&P 500 was at 2,481. Since then, the market have risen nearly +50% in less than a year.
However, the 2008 bear market pushed the score to -6 early in October thus leaving little upside if you did a one time purchase. No single (or multiple) market indicator will be accurate enough to call market bottom and that goes for ours as well. That being said, we've back tested the indicator with a reasonable success rate which we define as any positive return.
Below, in table A, we have summarize the outcome of purchasing the S&P 500 when market score reaches -6. In table B, we show the details of the trade/transaction.
Table A:
Table B:
A close observation and you will notice that there are purchase dates within days of each other. To adjust for that, we have taken only the first indication that occurs within that year. The result are summarized in tables C and D.
Table C
Table D
As a long-term holder of equities, we are pleased with an extreme high success rate coupled with above average (>10%) annualized return.
Secular Bear Markets and What Follows
Dow: 1906 to 1924
Dow: 1921 to 1929
- +504%
1966 to 1982
Dow: 1978 to 2000
- +1,478%
Dow: 2000 to 2016
Nasdaq: 2000 to 2016
We’re hopeful that a picture is worth a thousand words. However, if narrative is required then read our article title “Dow 130,000 by 2032”.
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Stock Buybacks: 1970-1973
Below is a list of stock buybacks in Forbes in the April 15, 1973 issue. Worth noting is the quantity of shares being bought relative to shares outstanding.
Below we have sorted the same list above with the percentage of shares outstanding that were purchased from largest to smallest.
See also:
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Chart of the Day: MoSys Inc.
According to Yahoo!Finance, “MoSys, Inc., a semiconductor company, develops and sells integrated circuits (ICs) for the high-speed cloud networking, communications, security appliance, video, monitor and test, data center, and computing markets.”
The Study of Failure
"Successful investing is a lifelong process. Some years are better than others, and it is a mistake to denominate financial progress into 12-month periods. A lifetime of successful investing requires a lifetime to accomplish (Russell, Richard. Dow Theory Letters. Geraldine Weiss on Investing. January 22, 1992. page 3.)."
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Oil and Gas Stock Index: August 2018
Below is the updated Oil and Gas Stock Index (XOI) for August 2018 and the performance of the respective fundamental categories.
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Investment Observations: ABM Industries (ABM)
ABM Industries is a leading provider of facility services in the United States. They provide janitorial, parking, and engineering services for commercial, industrial, institutional, governmental, and retail client facilities. The company was established in 1909. This mid cap company ($2.0 Billion) first appeared on our watch list back in March this year. The stock was trading at $35 then and lost 12% since.
Posted in ABM, Coppock Curve, investment observation, investment strategy, technical review, Uncategorized
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Bitcoin: March 2018
On February 17, 2018, we said of Bitcoin:
“…before a new high (substantially above the $19,343) is achieved, we expected a retest of the $6,914.26 level (or something close, like, $7,000-$7,200).”
We arrived the conclusion that the price should have a retest of the initial low of $6,914.26 after reviewing the three prior peaks and the subsequent declines and the retesting of the initial declines.
| peak | peak date | initial low | initial low date | % change | retest date | final low | total % decline |
| 29.60 | 6/8/2011 | 14.65 | 6/11/2011 | -50.51% | 7/4/2011 | 2.05 | -93.07% |
| 230.00 | 4/9/2013 | 68.36 | 4/16/2013 | -70.28% | 7/5/2013 | 66.34 | -71.16% |
| 1,147.25 | 12/4/2013 | 522.23 | 12/18/2013 | -54.48% | 2/25/214 | 177.28 | -84.55% |
| 19,343.04 | 12/16/2017 | 6,914.26 | 2/5/2018 | -64.25% | ??? | ??? | ??? |
It (retest) doesn’t have to happen, however, according to Dow Theory, it would be wise to expect a retest of the prior peak or a prior low. A retest of a low or high is also known as a double top when a new bear market is indicated or double bottom when a new bull market begins. For those with a bullish bias on Bitcoin, the following thoughts are appropriate for the current price action of the last two months.
"...before you can get a bull move, you have to establish a strong base -- and you have to test and retest that base many times." (source: Russell, Richard. Dow Theory Letters. October 18, 1989. Issue 1028. page 6.)
"Records of trading show that in many cases when a stock reaches top it will have a moderate decline and then go back again to near the highest figures. If after such a move, the price again recedes, it is liable to decline some distance.” (source: Hamilton, William Peter. Stock Market Barometer. Harper and Brothers. 1922. page 36.)
We think that the based on the price action we’ve seen with Bitcoin, there is going to be retest of the prior low at $6,914.26. In addition, the failure or success of holding at the retest level will go a long way in determining the direction of the price, in a dramatic fashion.
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Transaction Alert
On January 23, 2018, we executed the following transaction(s): Continue reading