Category Archives: SRL

MarketAxess Holdings Downside Targets

Posted on June 19, 2021 by | Leave a comment

Below are the downside targets for MarketAxess Holdings (MKTX) based on the work of Edson Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines.

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  • $249.65 (conservative target)
  • $225.90 (mid-range target)
  • $202.15 (extreme target)

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Posted in Edson Gould, MKTX, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL

Lumber Downside Targets

Posted on May 18, 2021 by | Leave a comment

Below are the downside targets based on the work of Edson Gould.

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The targets, as noted in the chart above are:

  • $821.80 (conservative target)
  • $691.90 (mid-range target)
  • $562.00 (extreme target)

The $821.80 target is generally assured, from all parabolic increases of this nature.  There exists the potential to decline as low as $410.90.  However, we reserve this target as a backup to achieving the $562.00 price.

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Posted in Edson Gould, lumber, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL

Dogecoin: It’s Not Legit If It Doesn’t Crash -93%

Posted on April 24, 2021 by | Leave a comment

Review

On February 5, 2018, we outlined the similarity in the level of increases between Bitcoin and Ethereum.  At that time, we said the following:

“The periods in question happens to have the same percentage change, approximately +13,400%.”

We then surmised that if Ethereum could increase the same as Bitcoin then it wouldn’t be far fetched to consider the prospect of Ethereum declining to the same level of -93%, after such an increase.  We said the following:

“As with the same percentage increase, it is reasonable to expect the same percentage decreased that followed.  For the price of Bitcoin, it plunged –93.07% from June 8, 2011 to November 18, 2011.”

By January 10, 2019, we published an article titled “Ethereum: Stunning -93% Decline”.  In that piece, we said:

“The difference between the high of $1,385.02 and $84.06 is equal to –93.93%.  This decline was similar to the decline experienced by Bitcoin in 2011.”

DogeCoin Downside Targets

Below are the downside targets based on the work of Edson Gould.

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The targets, based on the $0.41 peak, are:

  • $0.19 (conservative target)
  • $0.16 (mid-range target)
  • $0.14 (extreme target)

The -93% downside target for DogeCoin from the $0.41 level is $0.03. We have intentionally excluded the potential upside target of $1.41.  Our emphasis is exclusively the downside risk.

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Posted in DogeCoin, downside, Edson Gould, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL

ViacomCBS Downside Targets

Posted on March 29, 2021 by | Leave a comment

Below are the downside targets for ViacomCBS (VIAC) based on the work of Edson Gould.

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  • $48.33 (conservative target)
  • $40.89 (mid-range target)
  • $33.45 (extreme target)

Using the Speed Resistance Lines of Edson Gould is ideal since it is a relative scale for every stock no matter the price.  Additionally, parabolic increases have been consistent in achieving the conservative target in the past (except in the case of Telsa).

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Posted in Speed Resistance Lines, SRL, VIAC

ARK Innovation ETF Downside Targets

Posted on March 5, 2021 by | Leave a comment

Below are the downside targets based on the work of Edson Gould.

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The targets, based on the $156.58 peak, are:

  • $90.73 (conservative target)
  • $71.98 (mid-range target)
  • $53.23 (extreme target)

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Posted in ARKK, Edson Gould, SRL

GameStop, Like Tilray, is Treading Familiar Territory

Posted on January 25, 2021 by | Leave a comment

On September 13, 2018, we provided downside targets for Tilray when it was trading at $118. The downside targets, based on the work of Edson Gould, were:

  • $66.67 (conservative target)
  • $54.55 (mid-range target)
  • $42.42 (extreme target)

Because of the speculative activity in Tilray, we made a point of building downside targets for the stock if the price doubled to $236. At such a price, the downside targets were:

  • $102.92 (conservative target)
  • $90.79 (mid-range target)
  • $78.67 (extreme target)

The actual intraday high for Tilray was $300 on September 19, 2018.  This was a far cry above the initial trading price of $118 that the downside targets were constructed.

As seen in the chart below, the actual low has been $2.43 and Tilray currently languishes at a price of $16.80.

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On January 19, 2021, we projected price targets for GameStop (GME) when the stock was quoted at $39.91.  At the time, the downside targets were:

  • $21.26 (conservative target)
  • $18.22 (mid-range target)
  • $15.17 (extreme target)

Since that article, GameStop has increased as high as $159.18. 

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Given what we’ve seen with Gould’s downside targets in the case of Tilray and other stocks, we still believe that the conservative downside target of $21.26 will be achieved.

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Posted in Edson Gould, GME, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL, TLRY

Gamestop Downside Targets

Posted on January 19, 2021 by | Leave a comment

Based on the work of Edson Gould, we have determined the downside targets for GameStop Corp. (GME) covering data from the last two years.  To arrive at conclusions that are reasonable, we first must determine precedent for the potential declines.

2002-2012

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In the period from 2002-2007, GameStop Corp. increased to a high of $63.30 which established the following downside targets:

  • $28.28 (conservative target)
  • $24.69 (mid-range target)
  • $21.10 (extreme target)

The actual low was $15.73 in 2012.

2012-2020

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In the period from 2012-2020, GameStop Corp. increased to a high of $57.43 which established the following downside targets:

  • $41.81 (conservative target)
  • $30.50 (mid-range target)
  • $19.20 (extreme target)

The actual low was $2.80 in 2020.

2020-2021

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In the period from 2020-2021, GameStop Corp. increased to a high of $39.91 which established the following downside targets:

  • $21.26 (conservative target)
  • $18.22 (mid-range target)
  • $15.17 (extreme target)

If GameStop were to replicate the rise of 2002-2007, the price could easily achieve a level of $47.40 before a significant decline ensues.  However, achieving such a high price would still relegate the stock to the conservative downside target of $21.26.

The only action we take on downside targets is re-examination of the company fundamentals with an eye for acquiring a long position in the company in question.  We do not attempt to short the stock in any form.

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Posted in downside, Edson Gould, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL

Nikkei Upside Resistance Targets

Posted on December 7, 2020 by | Leave a comment

Below are the upside resistance targets based on the work of Edson Gould and applied to the Nikkei 225 Index from 1989 to 2020.

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As can be seen based on the conservative upside target of 22,983.45, once the level of the index got to the 22,937.60, there was a trading range established with a significant downside move before breaching the 28,401.78 mid-range target.

The new upside resistance level to watch for is 28,401.78.  At this point, we should expect similar price action of trading in a range and/or declining sharply before the next surge to the upside.

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Posted in Edson Gould, Japan, Nikkei, SRL, upside target

Tesla Downside Targets

Posted on September 8, 2020 by | Leave a comment

Review

We have run Tesla Downside targets in the past.

All parabolic moves get corrected by a specific amount, at minimum.  Because a declining trend has begun, we have run the numbers of the expected downside targets based on Edson Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines.

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The targets are:

  • $238.35
  • $202.23
  • $166.11

The previous FAILED downside targets had significant problems that could have been easily remedied. First and foremost, for highly volatile stocks like Tesla, we did not include downside targets assuming the price would double.  This is usually the most likely scenario to play out and is best represented in our September 13, 2018 targets for Tilray (TLRY).

At the time, Tilray was trading at $118 and we had laid out our downside targets for the stock as seen for Tesla above.  However, acknowledging the psychological component of the change in the price, we included downside targets for Tilray if the price doubled ($236) [within the chart].  In fact, Tilray did double shortly afterwards and the downside targets for the doubled level were achieved, by a wide margin.

The doubling downside targets for TSLA are (assumes $996.64 peak):

  • $404.45
  • $368.33
  • $332.21

We’re glad to have failed the previous times as it refines and teaches what we need to know about the limits of Edson Gould’s work.  We hope to continue the process of learning as we teach.

See also:

Top three downside targets achieved by year

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

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Posted in Edson Gould, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL, TSLA

Boeing: Upside Targets Before and After

Posted on July 12, 2020 by | Leave a comment

A question has come in about the use of upside resistance targets.  Why bother looking at the upside targets?  The case of Boeing (BA) should prove instructive.

On April 15, 2020, we posted upside speed resistance lines for Boeing (BA).  At the time, the upside resistance targets were:

  • $276.82
  • $326.57
  • $383.59

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Upside resistance targets are reflected in both time and price on a relative basis where a stock, after falling from a major high, will likely experience resistance on the move higher. 

Since our April 15, 2020 posting on Boeing, a meaningful reflection of what investors should look for when anticipating the increase in the stock price is highlighted below.

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As Boeing has increased from the low of $95.01, the stock price achieved the first upside resistance target at $267.82.  Circled in red is the anticipated resistance in the stock price.  What this usually means is that the stock price would decline or trade in a range.

For those determined to buy Boeing, regardless of fundamentals, upside resistance targets are a great places to anticipate possible turning points.  The flip side to this story is that we generally expect a re-test of the prior low or some semblance of a decline near that level.

Worth noting, when Boeing cracks the upside resistance target of $267.82 then $326.57 becomes the next resistance target and $267.82 becomes the next support level.  Prices above the first upside resistance target is generally the best level to buy a stock if it is backed by the fundamental prospects.

The story for Boeing is still unfolding. We’ll update the April 15, 2020 posting at situation continues to evolve.

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Posted in BA, Edson Gould, SRL, upside target

Tesla Downside Targets

Posted on July 8, 2020 by | Leave a comment

Below are the downside targets for Tesla Inc. (TSLA) as of July 7, 2020.

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  • $824.51 (conservative target)
  • $643.90 (mid-range target)
  • $463.29 (extreme target)

Parabolic increases rarely go unchecked.  This typically means that a decline to the conservative downside target is the norm, at minimum.  However, Tesla has had a history of defying the “norm” when it comes to price change.

see also: TSLA downside targets achieved

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Posted in downside, parabolic, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL, TSLA

Virgin Galactic Achieves Extreme Target

Posted on May 23, 2020 by | Leave a comment

On February 20, 2020, we said the following Virgin Galactic Holdings:

“Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE) is creating a scenario where the extreme downside target could easily be achieved while being considered a normal ‘bounce.’ The price would have to rise to above $60 before the above downside targets are no longer valid. These situations don’t end well…”

At the time, we also presented the targets below, with the extreme target being $14.16.

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Since February 20, 2020, SPCE has declined as low as $9.06 on an intraday basis.

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Upside Resistance Targets

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  • $26.49
  • $31.93
  • $37.21

The $37.21 target is the next stop, which currently equates to a range from $26-$37.

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Posted in SPCE, SRL, Target Achieved

Investors Title Cyclical Trends

Posted on May 15, 2020 by | Leave a comment

Illiquid as the stock is, we outline the cyclical trends in Investors Title Company (ITIC) from 1986 to the present. The fundamentals are exceptional for Investors Title however, the technicals are needed to temper excessive enthusiasm. Continue reading →

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Posted in Cyclical Trends, ITIC, SRL

Tagged

Crash in Oil: Price Is Your Guide

Posted on April 22, 2020 by | Leave a comment

On June 15, 2019, we published our Crude Oil Cyclical Trends (WTI). In that review, we said the following:

“Our assessment of the data, as is commonly the case, is to default to the most conservative scenario.  In the case of the latest decline in the price of oil from June 27, 2018 to the present, we calculated the decline of -52.98% as a possible turning point for the price of oil.  A decline to such a level would bring the price of oil to $36.40, an additional decline of -29.40%.”

As seen in the table that we provided at the time, there was precedent for the price of oil to decline to $22.71.  We always start from the conservative view and that is why we utilized the -52.98% level as a target (the smallest decline for a full cycle).  If we had applied the previous worst case scenario, we would have generated a decline in oil to $16.15.

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As absurd as it sounds, oil stands at $14.62 and that is a rebound from a staggering low.  Below, we project the upside resistance targets and provide strategies to employ if you must own oil related investments. Continue reading →

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Posted in Crude Oil, SRL

Shopify Downside Targets

Posted on March 31, 2020 by | Leave a comment

Below are the downside targets for Shopify (SHOP):

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  • $300.17 (conservative target)
  • $240.62 (mid-range target)
  • $181.07 (extreme target)

The history of parabolic increases suggests that Shopify’s mid-range target of $240.62 is not unusual and the extreme downside target is possible.  We’ll update this chart upon request.

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Posted in Edson Gould, SHOP, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL