According to Coindesk, Bitcoin achieved a high of $13,884.77 on June 26, 2019. Based on the data provided by Coindesk, we have the following downside targets: Continue reading
Again the financial media gets the assessment wrong when commenting on financial markets. In this case, it is Barron’s which gets it wrong about the resurgence of Bitcoin.
On June 24, 2019, Barron’s gave the following headline:
In the eyes of Barron’s, Bitcoin has finally arrived on the scene due to the news that Facebook announced that they will issue their own cryptocurrency called Libra. Facebook made their announcement of Libra on June 18, 2019.
Let’s look at Facebook’s announcement of Libra relative to the price of Bitcoin from December 2017 to June 26, 2019.
In the price chart above, Bitcoin crashed from $19,343.04 in December 16, 2017 to a low of $3,194.96 on December 17, 2018. The amount of increases from the December 17, 2018 low was +183.61%. This was approximately the same level the Bitcoin achieved on May 27, 2019 when it traded at $8,800.
Attributing the move up in the price of Bitcoin, after it had already bottomed six months earlier, mistakes correlation as causation. This also highlights the potential power of Bitcoin which, at this point in time, adds more credibility to Bitcoin as a viable “investment” versus a pure speculation.
Posted in Bitcoin
The following are the established Bitcoin cycles since 2010 which are instrumental in our forecasting of the market price for Bitcoin going forward.
In the period from July 2010 to November 2011, Bitcoin increased +42,185.61% and decreased from the peak -93.07%.
In the period from November 2011 to August 2013, Bitcoin increased +11,119.51% and decreased from the peak -71.16%.
In the period from April 2013 to October 2014, Bitcoin increased +1,629.35% and decreased from the peak -84.54%.
In the period from October 2014 to May 2019, Bitcoin increased +10,811.01% and decreased from the peak -83.48%. Our October 7, 2014 recommendation of Bitcoin at $334.09 found here.
Posted in Bitcoin, cycle analysis, Cyclical Trends, Market cycles
On January 17, 2018, we concluded our analysis with the following remarks:
“Anyone willing to participate in Bitcoin should be willing to accept that the price could easily decline –70%, as has been the average of all previous Bitcoin busts (found here). Anyone who participates in anything other than Bitcoin should expect a minimum –90% to –99% decline if, at the same time, Bitcoin declines –70% or more.”
From the peak in the price of Bitcoin at $19,343.04, the decline in Bitcoin that followed was –83%. This falls in alignment with our longstanding view that a drop of –70% is the average decline after a parabolic peak. In addition, the decline in Ethereum was –93%, confirming our work that a drop of –90% or more was possible.
As Bitcoin has increased from the low (so far), we have updated our upside and downside targets below.
On January 17, 2018, we said the following:
Below are the revised downside targets and expected times that each target will be achieved.
Price Targets
Time Targets
Since our January 17, 2018 posting, Bitcoin has declined as low as $3,194.96 which was achieved on December 15, 2018. Continue reading
After twelve months, the extent of the euphoria and devastation has been wrought on the price of Bitcoin. Out of necessity, it is necessary to review what has happened since our January 17, 2018 posting (when Bitcoin was at $11,141) on the topic as this was the last assessment that was the most accurate, so far. In that posting, we said the following:
“Anyone willing to participate in Bitcoin should be willing to accept that the price could easily decline –70%, as has been the average of all previous Bitcoin busts (found here). Anyone who participates in anything other than Bitcoin should expect a minimum –90% to –99% decline if, at the same time, Bitcoin declines –70% or more.
“We see the current decline consistent with all prior crashes in Bitcoin and therefore see no reason to panic if you are out already. Alternatively, if you are currently in Bitcoins, you should be willing to accept that the price routinely declines to the levels mentioned above.”
Again, this was that last best assessment we had. After this posting, we’ve had others that can be found in our Bitcoin archive which have been mostly accurate and a couple that have been dead wrong. Below is the update on the topic of Bitcoin. Continue reading
When Ethereum was trading at $384.49 on April 2, 2018, we said the following:
“There is a lot on the line for Ethereum. Currently, the cryptocurrency is slated for the following downside targets:
All that remains is the last downside target of $96.95. Based on the fact that Ethereum has achieved the $188.13 level, we are posting our upside target using the May 5, 2018 peak.
To fairly represent our work on the topic of Bitcoin, it is highly recommended that you read through our Bitcoin Archive from 2013 to the present.
Below is the most recent assessment of Bitcoin based on the “closing” price of August 30, 2018.
Our history with Bitcoin goes back to April 2013. It is necessary to review our track record to understand that we attempt to be measured in our assessment.
We do not fully understand the bigger picture issues like blockchain which is the innovation that allows Bitcoin to gain traction. From the beginning we have tracked the price of Bitcoin strictly because all of our previous work has been based on price reflecting human greed, fear, and folly.
Posted in Bitcoin
On February 5 , 2018, when Ethereum was trading at $699, we said the following of the cryptocurrency:
“In addition to the conservative downside target, we have indicated the level Ethereum would be at if it lost –93% (red line) as Bitcoin did in the period from June 2011 to November 2011 (yeah, it took only five months). Such a decline in Ethereum would bring the price to $96.95. We don’t expect this but must be realistic about the prospects regardless of our own personal expectations.
“Finally, we have included our own worst case scenario (green line) based on one half the difference between Gould’s extreme downside target at $461 and the –93% experienced by Bitcoin in 2011. This would bring the price of Ethereum to $279.31. Although this seems like a dire call for Ethereum, in reality it is not unusual to see an –80% decline in price from such extreme parabolic moves.”
As we write, Ethereum has declined to $266, just slightly below our worst case scenario target of $279.31. Below we have included our technical assessment of ETH at the current price.
Below is a summary review of the price action of Bitcoin since October 2017.
The declining trend has to end at some point. However, the tendency has been for the price of Bitcoin to achieve new lows at 6,914.26 and 6,620.41 and finally 5,848.26.
Posted in Bitcoin
Review
In our February 17, 2018 review when Bitcoin was trading at $11,092.15 and we said the following:
“…before a new high (substantially above the $19,343) is achieved, we expected a retest of the $6,914.26 level (or something close, like, $7,000-$7,200).”
On April 6, 2018, Bitcoin declined as low as $6,620.41.
On April 2, 2018, when Bitcoin was trading at $7,049, we said the following:
“The $9,148.23 level is the point where we believe the price of Bitcoin could rise to before a retest of the $11,479.73 level, if remotely possible. Based on the recent volume characteristics, we think that the $9,148.23 is in the works.”
On April 24, 2018, Bitcoin rose achieved $9,652.16.
On April 27, 2018, when Bitcoin was trading at $$9,278.22, we said the following:
“At this stage in the game, Bitcoin is in a no-man’s land. While there are always three directions that the price could go (up, down, or sideways for a long time) this juncture is strictly to be played for the extreme of going back to the $11,479.73 or $6,914.26 level. There will not be sideways action from here.”
By June 10, 2018, Bitcoin has fallen to $6,783.88. Continue reading
Posted in Bitcoin
On April 2, 2018, when Bitcoin was trading at $7,049, we said the following:
“The $9,148.23 level is the point where we believe the price of Bitcoin could rise to before a retest of the $11,479.73 level, if remotely possible. Based on the recent volume characteristics, we think that the $9,148.23 is in the works.”
As of April 27, 2018, Bitcoin is priced at $9,278.22 and has achieved our target of $9,148.23 as outlined in Dow Theory.
The April 2, 2018 assessment came after our February 17, 2018 review when Bitcoin was trading at $11,092.15 and we said the following:
“…before a new high (substantially above the $19,343) is achieved, we expected a retest of the $6,914.26 level (or something close, like, $7,000-$7,200).”
On April 6, 2018, Bitcoin declined as low as $6,620.41. All of the assessments have been based on the work of Charles Dow’s Dow Theory and Edson Gould.
Below is the updated assessment of where Bitcoin is headed from here.
Posted in Bitcoin, Dow Theory, Edson Gould
On February 16, 2018, we said the following of Ethereum:
Failure of the price of Ethereum to achieve the $1,040.05 by a substantial amount ($1,111 or more) would be an indication that the price will retest the $695.08 level. A retest of the $695.08 level without falling below the level would be constructive for a new bull market. It would be a second failure to decline below the $692.99 level. According to Dow Theory, this would one of the most constructive bullish indications going forward. Alternatively, if Ethereum fell below $692.99 then the expectation is that $617.09 is the minimum downside target.
Unfortunately, Ethereum was unable to exceed $1,040.05 and has met our expectation of $617.09 as the minimum downside target. As of April 2, 2018, Ethereum is now trading around $384.
On February 17, 2018, we said of Bitcoin:
“…before a new high (substantially above the $19,343) is achieved, we expected a retest of the $6,914.26 level (or something close, like, $7,000-$7,200).”
We will continue to revisit the parts where we got the analysis right because this is where Dow Theory was correctly interpreted. Below is the charting of the February 5, 2018 low and the subsequent rise and the retest of the low on April 1, 2018.
Posted in 50% principle, Bitcoin, Dow Theory