Author Archives: NLO Team

2022 Book List

Posted on January 2, 2023 | Leave a comment

Below are the books that we’ve read cover-to-cover from January 2022 to December 2022.  Don’t forget to check out our 2021, 2020, 2018, 2017, 2016 and the Dow Theory Letters book lists.

Title   Author
Revolution That Wasn't, The by Spencer Jakab
Panic! by Michael Lewis
Warren Buffett's Ground Rules by Jeremy C. Miller
Great Quake, The by Henry Fountain
Pacific by Simon Winchester
How to Tell a Story by Aristotle
African Founders by David Hackett Fischer
How the Hippies Saved Physics by David Kaiser
Music Is History by Questlove
Coal by Barbara Freese
Titans of History by Simon Sebag Montefiore
A Brief History of Motion by Tom Standage
Ascent of Money, The by Niall Ferguson
Mark Inside, The by Amy Reading
Plagues Upon the Earth by Kyle Harper
Mutiny on the Rising Sun by Jared Ross Hardesty
A Brief History of Korea by Michael J. Seth
Money by Jacob Goldstein
Story Paradox, The by Jonathan Gottschall
Boom and Bust by William Quinn
Players Ball, The by David Kushner
Unseen Body, The by Jonathan Reisman
Things are Never So Bad That They Can't Get Worse by William Neuman
Body, The by Bill Bryson
Icepick Surgeon, The by Sam Kean
Why You Like The Science & Culture of Musical Taste by Nolan Gasser
Reason for the Darkness of the Night: Edgar Allan Poe and the Forging of American Science, The by John Tresch
A (Very) Short History of Life on Earth by Henry Gee
In the Shadow of Liberty by Kenneth C. Davis
Prisoners of Geography by Tim Marshall
Joy of Sweat, The by Sarah Everts
Forgetting: The Benefits of Not Remembering by Scott A. Small
Spinning Magnet, The by Alanna Mitchell
Midnight in Chernobyl by Adam Higginbothham
Science of James Smithson, The by Steven Turner
Knowledge Machine, The by Michael Strevens
Breathe by James Nestor
Lithium by Walter A. Brown
Genetics in the Madhouse by Theodore M. Porter
An Elegant Defense by Matt Richtel

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2022 Dogs of the TSX 60

Posted on January 2, 2023 | 2 comments

Below is a chart of the performance of the Dogs of the TSX 60 from December 31, 2021 to December 31, 2022. Continue reading →

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Posted in Dogs of the TSX

2022 Dogs of the Dow Review #DogsoftheDow

Posted on January 1, 2023 | Leave a comment

In our January 2, 2022 posting on the Dogs of the Dow, we said the following:

  • "In the coming year, we’re expecting the market to underperform generally and accept that there is no real 'safe haven.'”
  • "As shown in the 2017 article, the assumption is that if the year ends in the negative, these two categories will lead the way down. Meanwhile, if the year ends on the downside, the high yield stocks should have the market beating performance."

Continue reading →

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Equity Residential (EQR) Q1 2020

Posted on September 5, 2020 | Leave a comment

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Industry representatives say that steadiness of FFO is more reflective of a REIT’s health.  For the purposes of determining the future direction of the stock price, we prefer the wide variability of the net income figure. (data source)

see also:

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Equity Residential (EQR) Q2 2020

Posted on September 4, 2020 | Leave a comment

image

Industry representatives say that steadiness of FFO is more reflective of a REIT’s health.  For the purposes of determining the future direction of the stock price, we prefer the wide variability of the net income figure. (data source)

see also:

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Public Storage (PSA) Q2 2020

Posted on August 9, 2020 | Leave a comment

image

Industry representatives say that steadiness of FFO is more reflective of a REIT’s health.  For the purposes of determining the future direction of the stock price, we prefer the wide variability of the net income figure. (data source)

see also:

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Posted in PSA, REIT

Digital Realty Trust Inc. (DLR) Q2 2020

Posted on August 4, 2020 | Leave a comment

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Industry representatives say that steadiness of AFFO is more reflective of a REIT’s health.  For the purposes of determining the future direction of the stock price, we prefer the wide variability of the net income figure. (data source)

see also:

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Digital Realty Trust Inc. (DLR) Q1 2020

Posted on August 3, 2020 | Leave a comment

image

Industry representatives say that steadiness of FFO is more reflective of a REIT’s health.  For the purposes of determining the future direction of the stock price, we prefer the wide variability of the net income figure. (data source)

see also:

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Posted in DLR, REIT

A Strategy For the Coppock Curve

Posted on August 2, 2020 | Leave a comment

On, August 1, 2020, we said the following:

“Last month, the Coppock Curve dipped into negative territory flagging us to closely monitor this indicator for a buy signal. In addition to monitoring the Dow Jones Industrial Average, we created a model to back test this strategy against individual stocks. So far, we are very satisfied with the outcome.”

Based on our prior work, we have developed a strategy to compliment the indications made by the Coppock Curve when applied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Continue reading →

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Posted in 1931, Coppock Curve, Coppock Index, Dogs of the Dow

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Silver Review

Posted on August 1, 2020 | Leave a comment

On August 25, 2019, we said the following of silver:

“The trend is up, what remains are the buying opportunities (based on the upside targets above) and a lot of patience.”

Since that time, silver has had the following price action.

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Clear buying opportunities have opened up in the intervening period from August 2019 to the July 2020 period.  In addition, our point that precious metals prices decline during stock market declines has continued to hold up as highlighted in our articles published on November 8, 2008 and September 14, 2014.  The mistaken belief that precious metals are the place to be if the stock market “crashes” because they act as a hedge, meaning generally increase, is mistaken.

Our next update on the price of silver will review the upside resistance targets so that those interested in the precious metal can be more selective of where they plan to initiate positions.  We hope to continue the tradition of providing the least expensive lesson on the behavior of precious metals.

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GDP and Market: July 2020

Posted on July 31, 2020 | Leave a comment

This is an update January 16, 2020 comparison of the Gross Domestic Product and the Wilshire 5000 on a quarterly basis from 1975 to Q2 2020.

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It seems that the decline in GDP has run its course.  Alternatively, if the decline has not ended then there is not much more to go on the downside.

Meanwhile, it is challenging to think that the Wilshire 5000 does not have more to go on the downside.  However, the sudden nature of the cause in the decline and the extent of chasm that has been attained may mean that the worst is past us, buy only for those who are willing to take a 10 to 15 year investment horizon.  Traders who are long only may see more pain ahead.

see also: January 2020

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Posted in GDP, Wilshire 5000

Transaction Alert

Posted on July 30, 2020 | Leave a comment

We executed the following transaction(s): Continue reading →

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Hang Seng Index: July 2020

Posted on July 30, 2020 | Leave a comment

On October 5, 2019, we said the following of the Hang Seng Index:

“By all accounts, the failure of the Hang Seng Index to meaningfully exceed the 23,264.43 level indicates that the range of 24,585.53 to 21,616.14 is a lock.”

As seen in the chart below, the Hang Seng Index achieved a low of 21,696.13 on March 23, 2020.

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There is more room for downside risk, as plainly seen in the Dow Theory target of 19,967.86.  Hand over fist buying should be considered at levels below the ascending 19,967.86 trend line.

see also:

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Posted in Dow Theory, Hang Seng Index, HSI, Target Achieved

Krugman: Right or Wrong?

Posted on July 16, 2020 | Leave a comment

Source

Krugman, Paul. "A Trade Pact for Chips: Just a fancy form of Protectionism." New York Times. August 10, 1986. F2.

Claims

  • “...limits in trade do not add to employment.”
  • “the jobs protected in one part of the economy are always matched by jobs lost elsewhere.”
  • “...the only net effect of trade restrictions is that we force our economy to do the things it does relatively badly instead of the things it does relatively well.”
  • “The trade policies of foreign governments have not caused or even contributed to our to our trade deficit.”
  • “...the government, in effect, has organized American and foreign producers into a cartel that raises prices at the expense of United States consumers.”

Prediction

“...in the future, we will see many proposals to extend the pattern of sugar, autos and textiles to other industries.”

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Posted in Krugman

RLI Corp. 10-Year Targets

Posted on May 29, 2020 | Leave a comment

Below are the valuation targets for RLI Corp. (RLI) for the next 10 years. Continue reading →

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Posted in 10-year Targets, Altimeter, RLI

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